The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its World Economic Outlook Update 2026 report titled “Global Economy: Steady Amid Divergent Forces.”
The report was presented on Monday, January 19, 2026, during a live press conference in Brussels, Belgium.
The briefing was led by Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas, director of the IMF Research Department; Petya Koeva-Brooks, deputy director; and Deniz Igan, division chief, with moderation by Jose Luiz de Haro, Communications Officer
Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces
According to the IMF, global economic growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.3% in 2026 and at 3.2% in 2027, largely in line with the estimated 3.3% outcome in 2025.
The forecast represents a slight upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with the October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The IMF noted that the stable outlook results from the balancing of opposing forces.
Headwinds from shifting trade policies are being offset by strong investment linked to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in North America and Asia.
These are further supported by fiscal and monetary backing, broadly accommodative financial conditions, and the adaptability of the private sector.
The IMF added that global headline inflation is expected to decline from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and further to 3.4% in 2027.
The inflation projections are also broadly unchanged from those in October and envisage inflation returning to target more gradually in the United States than in other large economies.
In line with the report, the risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. Reevaluation of productivity growth expectations about AI could lead to a decline in investment and trigger an abrupt financial market correction, spreading from AI-linked companies to other segments and eroding household wealth.
As noted by the report, the trade tensions could flare up, prolonging uncertainty and weighing more heavily on activity.
Domestic political tensions or geopolitical tensions could erupt, introducing new layers of uncertainty and disrupting the global economy through their impact on financial markets, supply chains, and commodity prices.
As indicated by the IMF, the larger fiscal deficits and high public debt could put pressure on long-term interest rates and, in turn, on broader financial conditions.
On the upside, activity could be further lifted by AI-related investment and eventually transform into sustainable growth if faster AI adoption translates into strong productivity gains and increased business dynamism. Activity could also be supported by a sustained easing in trade tensions.
Based on the report, the policies to foster stability and sustainably lift medium-term growth prospects require a keen focus on restoring fiscal buffers, preserving price and financial stability, reducing uncertainty, and implementing structural reforms without further delay.
Nigeria’s Growth Outlook upgraded
In its World Economic Outlook Update: Annexe section of the report, the IMF upgraded the economic growth outlook of Nigeria from 4.2% to 4.4% for the Full-Year 2026.
The global organisation forecasted that Nigeria’s economic growth in 2027 will decline from 4.4% in 2026 to 4.1% in 2027.
Earlier, in its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasted that Nigeria’s growth rate would be 4.0% in 2027. It has increased by 0.1% in its latest report.
What The Upgraded Economic Growth Outlook Means for Nigeria
The IMF has raised Nigeria’s 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 4.4%, reflecting stronger expected economic expansion.
This upgrade indicates that key economic drivers, including industrial production and services, are outperforming earlier projections for the fiscal year.
However, the outlook for 2027 shows a projected deceleration to 4.1%, signalling that the heightened momentum in 2026 may not be structurally sustainable in the long term.
Despite this year-over-year slowdown, the 2027 figure is still a marginal 0.1% improvement over the IMF’s previous baseline of 4.0%.
Collectively, these figures represent a net positive adjustment to Nigeria’s medium-term macroeconomic trajectory, though growth remains sensitive to internal and global volatility.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) earlier projected that the Nigerian economy would grow by 3.89% in 2025.
The Apex Bank upped its economic outlook forecast for Nigeria in its latest Nigerian Economic Outlook report published in December 2025, where the Bank revealed that the nation’s economy will grow by 4.49% in 2026.
Nigeria’s 2026 projected growth is driven by ongoing structural reforms, enhanced private investment, increased oil production, and improved macroeconomic stability. The Nigerian inflation rate is also expected to moderate to around 12.94%.
The World Bank recently revised its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria upward from 3.7% to 4.4%. The IMF has now aligned with that outlook, raising its projection from 4.2% to 4.4%.
