New data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) reveals that monthly data usage jumped from 518,000 terabytes in January 2023 to over 1.23 million terabytes by November 2025, a massive 140% increase.

This surge in mobile data usage is being fueled by a significant shift in connectivity standards and measurable improvements in network performance across the federation.

The Death of 2G and the Rise of 4G

For the first time, 4G has firmly established itself as the primary gateway to the internet for Nigerians.

The technology now accounts for approximately 52% of all mobile connections, officially overtaking 2G, which has declined to 38%.

This transition is not just about coverage; it is about speed. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the NCC recorded significant performance gains:

• Median 4G download speeds rose by 24%, moving from 16 Mbps to 20 Mbps.
• Average 4G download speeds increased by 18%, climbing from 28 Mbps to 33 Mbps.

For 5G, the Commission reported that the technology expanded to roughly 13% of the population and continuing to grow.

Infrastructure Powering the Surge

Dr. Aminu Maida, the executive vice chairman of the NCC, attributed these gains to aggressive infrastructure deployment.

Throughout 2025, telecom operators deployed or upgraded over 2,800 sites nationwide, strengthening both coverage and capacity.

Furthermore, the expansion is being bolstered by “Project BRIDGE,” a national digital infrastructure effort championed by the Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr. Bosun Tijani. The initiative aims to accelerate the deployment of 90,000km of fibre optic cable to serve as Nigeria’s digital backbone.

Challenges Amidst Growth

Despite the positive data, the NCC acknowledges that the “surge in demand places significant strain on networks”.

Many consumers still grapple with inconsistent service quality, congestion in high-traffic urban areas, and outages caused by infrastructure damage or power challenges.

Operators also face persistent hurdles, including:

• Rising operating costs and logistics constraints.
• Right-of-Way (RoW) issues at the subnational level.
• Persistent vandalism and theft of telecommunications equipment.

2026 Outlook: A $1 Trillion Ambition

The current momentum aligns with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which targets a $1 trillion digital economy by 2030.

“Our shared expectation is simple: better services that people can feel,” stated Dr. Maida in the Commission’s 2026 outlook. For the coming year, the NCC has pledged to focus on “Quality of Experience,” ensuring that as 5G coverage (currently at 13%) continues to grow, the foundational 4G networks used by the majority of Nigerians remain resilient and affordable.

Analysis of NCC’s industry statistics as of June 2025 shows that Nigeria recorded 2,092.86% 5G growth in the last one year, increasing from 0.14 per cent recorded in June 2024 to 3.07 per cent in 2025.

However, despite its upward curve, 5G still lags far behind 4G, which continues to dominate the market, while legacy 2G and 3G networks remain surprisingly resilient.

Nigeria’s three licensed and active 5G operators are MTN, Airtel, and Mafab Communications. MTN pioneered the rollout in September 2022, Airtel followed in June 2023, while Mafab began deploying its services later that year.

Although all three have continued expanding coverage, adoption has been sluggish, hindered largely by the high cost of 5G-enabled devices and the significant expenses of infrastructure deployment.

The Numbers Behind the Shift

5G: Market share climbed from 0.96% in Nov 2023 to 3.07% by Jun 2025, more than tripling in 19 months.

4G: The clear leader, rising from 29.91% in Nov 2023 to 50.80% in Jun 2025, now accounting for half of all connections in Nigeria.

2G: Declined steadily from 59.32% in Nov 2023 to 38.47% in Jun 2025, but still represents nearly 4 in 10 connections.

3G: Fell modestly from 9.90% in Nov 2023 to 7.66% in Jun 2025, as users migrate to 4G and 5G.

Trend Analysis

5G’s Growth: Uptake is encouraging but slow, limited by device affordability, coverage gaps, and rollout costs. Moving from under 1% in 2023 to just over 3% in mid-2025 shows progress, but mass adoption remains distant.

4G’s Dominance: Its rise past the 50% mark in May 2025 underscores Nigeria’s strong appetite for data services, as telcos aggressively expand LTE coverage and bundle affordable data plans.

2G’s Persistence: Despite rapid decline, 2G remains the fallback for voice and basic connectivity, especially in rural areas.

3G’s Decline shows the technology is losing relevance as operators and consumers leapfrog directly from 2G to 4G/5G.

What This Means for Nigeria’s Digital Future

Bridging digital divide: hence the coexistence of high 2G usage alongside growing 4G and emerging 5G highlights Nigeria’s urban-rural connectivity gap.

Government initiatives through the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) on spectrum allocation, infrastructure sharing, and affordable devices will be crucial to accelerate 5G uptake.

As 4G reaches maturity, operators will need to position 5G as a mass-market service, not just a premium urban option.

Wider 5G adoption could unlock opportunities in fintech, e-health, IoT, and smart cities, but only if rollout challenges are addressed.

While Nigeria’s 5G journey is gathering pace, the NCC statistics reveal that the country is still firmly a 4G nation, with 2G lingering as a legacy safety net.

The next two years will be critical in determining whether 5G remains a niche service or becomes the backbone of Nigeria’s digital economy.

This regulatory excellence is evident in the growth and success of the telecoms industry, which currently contributes over 16% to Nigeria’s GDP.

The telecoms industry in Nigeria is a source of pride for everyone; it’s arguably the only sector that can be considered a successful model of liberalization in the country.

Amidst all the successes, the industry is still faced with multiple challenges, including multiple taxation, vandalisation, and changing macro realities.

Noteworthy of mention is efforts by the NCC under the new Executive Vice Chairman, Dr Aminu Maida to further reposition the industry.

Whilst the focus in the past has always been quality of service (QoS) the direction under the new EVC has shifted to quality of experience (QoE) which is more customer-centric and places more demands on the telecoms operators.

The EVC has continued to emphasize this at various engagements with stakeholders in the industry.

Beyond advocacy, the visible steps taken so far by NCC under Dr Maida aimed at safeguarding telecom infrastructure deserve commendation.

The recent incident of multiple fibre cut, which resulted in widespread network disruptions for one of the major telecoms operators, prompted swift action from the EVC.

His advocacy for stricter penalties against perpetrators led to moves by the government to criminalize cable damages and vandalisation of telecoms infrastructure. This proactive stance not only deters future recklessness but also instils confidence among telecoms operators regarding the safety of their investments.

However, the long-term viability of the industry hinges on a multifaceted approach that will include protection of telecoms infrastructure, which the NCC is currently spearheading, and sustainable pricing mechanism.

The Nigerian economy is currently grappling with new economic realities that continue to threaten its stability.

These realities are not unique to Nigeria but rather a global phenomenon affecting countries around the world.

A complex set of factors are exerting considerable pressure on the global economy and causing a slowdown in global growth.

This is occurring alongside a marked increase in inflation. As a result, businesses are confronted with a range of challenges including rising costs of capital, a tight labour market, and geopolitical risks.

These challenges have been worsened by disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, Israel, and the tensions between the US and China.

Many countries are revisiting their policies and implementing new strategies to navigate the turbulent waters.

In Nigeria, the struggle to strengthen the value of the naira to the dollar has continued to gallop as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to pursue new approaches to address the situation.

However, challenges such as infrastructural deficit and security concerns continue to persist, further exacerbating the issue.

Yet, Nigeria continues to face a significant rise in food prices over the past few years, worsened by the removal of subsidies on petrol, amongst other things.

This has resulted in a weakened purchasing power for many citizens with attendant effects on businesses.

In recent times, Nigeria’s naira has tumbled across both official and unofficial markets due to increased forex demand, causing a significant spike in prices of goods and services across the country.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that items contributing to the inflation’s headline index on a year-on-year basis are food and non-alcoholic beverages (16.42%), housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel (5.30%), clothing and footwear (2.24%), and transport (2.06%).

The NBS explained that the rise in food inflation on a month-on-month basis is due to an increase in the average prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yams, and other tubers, fish, coffee, tea, and cocoa.

These developments paint a bleak picture of the current economic situation in Nigeria and amid all these, discourse around telecoms tariff review is beginning to take centre stage, drawing attention to the need for a delicate balance between economic realities, quality of experience, which impacts directly on customer satisfaction, and telecommunications industry sustainability.

For over a decade, major telecom operators like Airtel, MTN, and GLO have maintained their pricing structures, despite mounting challenges such as currency devaluation and inflation while other sectors have adjusted prices to cope with economic fluctuations.

For instance, entertainment giant, DStv, has increased its prices more than two times in the past year. Netflix has also reviewed its prices.

Nigerian Breweries have also adjusted their prices to reflect the current realities, but telecom operators have maintained their pricing despite economic fluctuations, grappling with a devalued currency and rising operational costs.

In Nigeria’s telecommunications sector, diesel consumption is a critical factor influencing service reliability and progression.

With numerous sites dispersed across the nation, a substantial portion operates on generators 24/7, necessitating continuous fuel supply.

This escalating cost of diesel not only directly impacts operational expenses but also cascades into broader challenges such as site accessibility and infrastructural maintenance.

As prices soar across various sectors, the telecom industry continues to grapple with the dilemma of maintaining quality services while operating within constrained pricing frameworks.

The prevailing reality suggests that the long-term viability of the telecoms sector now hinges on striking a delicate balance between affordability and quality of experience for consumers on the one hand, and profitability and survival for operators on the other hand.

Quality of experience stands at the forefront of consumer expectations in the telecom sector. However, the telecoms operators must continue to invest to maintain superior quality of experience. In the same vein, continuous and increased investment is a function of profitability.

The telcos can only invest from their profits. There can be no investment without profitability. One way to guarantee profitability and sustainability of the industry is a review of the existing pricing structure.

Pricing autonomy is a linchpin for industry sustainability. The ability to set cost-reflective tariffs is indispensable for ensuring adequate returns on investment and fostering long-term viability.

Telecom operators require a more transparent and collaborative approach to tariff adjustments, emphasizing the importance of a pricing framework aligned with operational realities.

The current pricing window, sanctioned by regulators, is a foundation, but the industry needs greater flexibility to navigate cost fluctuations while ensuring service quality and accessibility remain uncompromised.

The clamour for cost-reflective tariffs is not merely about short-term gains but a strategic imperative to sustain the sector’s growth trajectory.

The transition from 2G to 5G and with 6G on the way symbolizes the industry’s evolution, made possible by substantial investments that fuel innovation and expand service capabilities.

However, without conducive regulatory frameworks that incentivize investment, the industry risks stagnation, jeopardizing future advancements and undermining service availability.

The telecommunications industry in Nigeria is currently at a crossroads where infrastructural challenges, pricing dynamics, and regulatory frameworks intersect, offering a unique opportunity for swift and collective action.

A thriving and resilient telecommunications ecosystem has the potential to empower individuals, drive economic growth and enrich lives across the nation of Nigeria.

Whilst the industry regulator has delivered commendably, prevailing realities demand a new approach to ensure continued viability of the sector.

*Dr. Falade Muritala Adesola is a Senior Lecturer and former HOD, Computer and Information Sciences Department, Trinity University.

According to the ITU in its ‘Mobile Network Coverage Facts and Figures 2023’ report, this is in part due to the continued importance of older mobile technologies in Africa, such as 2G and 3G networks, the international agency on telecom and internet said in its latest report.

The report indicated that while 2G and 3G networks are being phased out in developed countries, they remain a key part of the telecommunications landscape in many African countries, especially those with lower-income economies like Nigeria.

According to the ITU, 2G and 3G networks are still the predominant technologies in use in many African countries including Nigeria.

This is because these networks offer a lower-cost option for providing basic mobile services, such as voice calls and text messages, in areas where 4G and 5G networks are not available.

There are still hundreds of towns and villages in all the country’s six geopolitical zones workout 4G and 5G networks.

As a result, ITU said, older technologies (2G and 3G) are likely to continue to play an important role in the African telecom industry. (ITU).

It noted that 3G coverage was at 19 per cent and 2G coverage at 10 per cent, adding that Africa continued to lag the world in network adoption with 5G already at 38 per cent and 4G at 52 per cent.

The union stated that in many countries older-generation mobile networks were being switched off in favour of new-generation networks.

It said, “5G enables the development of a digital ecosystem by connecting machines, objects, and devices with ultra-low latency and the potential to improve energy efficiency. This is the case for most European operators that plan to switch off 3G networks by December 2025 and for operators in the Asia-Pacific region.

“However, in some countries, the path is less clear, mainly because 2G and 3G networks retain a significant presence. This is the case notably in lower-income countries, where both technologies remain an important means of communication. In these countries, the main obstacles to 5G deployment and adoption include the high infrastructure costs, device affordability, and regulatory barriers.”

The United Nations body on telecommunications declared that since commercial deployment began in 2019, 5G coverage had increased to reach 40 per cent of the world population in 2023 with distribution very uneven.

It stated that while 89 per cent of the population in high-income countries was covered by a 5G network, coverage remained limited in low-income countries.

It expanded, “Europe boasts the most extensive 5G coverage, with 68 per cent of the population covered, followed by the Americas region (59 per cent) and the Asia-Pacific region (42 per cent). Coverage reaches 12 per cent of the population in the Arab States region and less than 10 per cent in the CIS region (eight per cent) and Africa region (six per cent).”

Speaking on broadband coverage, ITU noted that while the mobile-broadband network is already available to 95 per cent of the world population, bridging the coverage gap (i.e., the remaining five per cent) is proving difficult).

It added, “In the Africa region, the gap is shrinking but remains relatively high at 16 per cent, predominantly affecting the population of central and western Africa.”

They indicated that only about a dozen countries, including Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Zambia, have launched commercial 5G services.

The ITU’s report is a vindication of Enextgen Wireless, an engineering company that focuses on improving user experience in Mobile Broadband Wireless Communications.

The company had in December 2023 hinted that tampering with a cell site in Maiduguri should not cause a call to drop in Yaba, Lagos or vice-versa.

In fact, they communicated this to the industry regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

Enextgen Wireless is of the view that some MNOs are deploying propaganda machine to confuse the subscribers who, in many occasions, do not receive value for money paid.

“Use our platform or come up with similar platform to monitor mobile networks instead of making assumptions or repeating the propaganda of the MNOs”, the company wrote in a report obtained by Techeconomy.

In the report, the engineers showed examples of call drops from Lagos, Port Harcourt and Abuja.

“Those from Lagos and Port Harcourt were due to missing handoffs. Sure, these could be due to cable cuts. However, they appear often enough in MTN’s network that they should reflect on the KPIs published for MTN by NCC. They don’t. Those from MTN’s 5G in Abuja occurred at a stationary location”.

“The government should stop blaming the public for vandalism being the primary cause of poor network quality, in lieu of holding MNOs accountable.

“If vandalism is truly the cause of all mobile network quality issues, let the reports published by the NCC reflect the resulting network degradation”, the report reads in part.