According to a new report by Juniper Research, over-the-top (OTT) business messaging traffic, led by platforms like WhatsApp, is projected to skyrocket from 390 billion messages in 2025 to more than 560 billion by 2027, marking a staggering 45% growth in just two years.

At the heart of this surge lies WhatsApp’s game-changing pricing model. The Meta-owned platform has slashed authentication rates, the kind used for one-time passwords (OTPs) and verification messages, by 50–90% compared to traditional A2P (Application-to-Person) SMS.

The move is no coincidence; it’s a calculated step to win over enterprises that have long depended on network operators for secure user communication.

“By first securing authentication traffic, WhatsApp is laying the groundwork to move into higher-value business messaging,” explained Molly Gatford, Senior Research Analyst at Juniper Research.

“Once enterprises are onboarded for authentication, WhatsApp must upsell to marketing use cases, where termination fees are far higher and the real revenue opportunity lies.”

Why it Matters to your Business

For years, mobile network operators dominated the enterprise messaging market through A2P SMS, powering everything from OTPs to promotional campaigns. But the rise of OTT players like WhatsApp, Telegram, and Viber has changed the rules, offering richer engagement, encryption, and global reach at a fraction of the cost.

In Nigeria and across Africa, where businesses are doubling down on digital transformation and financial inclusion, WhatsApp’s expanding footprint is poised to influence how banks, fintechs, eCommerce brands, and even government agencies communicate.

Imagine receiving your transaction alerts, delivery notifications, and customer support all through one WhatsApp chat, secure, fast, and cost-effective. That’s the future Meta is betting on.

The Operators’ Dilemma

Juniper’s report warns that mobile operators must rethink their approach — and fast. To remain competitive, operators will need to adopt “use case-based” pricing models for both SMS and RCS (Rich Communication Services), leveraging AI-powered analytics to classify and price messages more intelligently.

This strategy could help them highlight the added value of RCS, Google’s SMS evolution, which supports multimedia, interactivity, and verified business profiles, while maintaining telco control.

“By adopting a use case-based pricing strategy that is consistent across SMS and RCS, operators will enable enterprises to better assess RCS’s added value,” Gatford noted. “This helps operators retain business messaging traffic across these channels and avoid losing market share to OTT platforms.”

Looking Ahead: Opportunities and Risks

The A2P & Business Messaging Market 2025–2030 report, which includes forecasts across 61 countries and 146,000 datapoints, suggests that the coming years will see a tug-of-war between OTT disruptors and traditional network providers.

While WhatsApp may currently hold the pricing advantage, operators still have one critical edge, trust and infrastructure. Enterprises handling sensitive data, such as banks and public institutions, continue to rely on carrier-grade security and compliance frameworks that OTT players are still catching up to.

Still, the momentum is unmistakable.

As enterprises chase more personalized, real-time engagement with customers, the boundaries between messaging platforms and telecom networks are blurring.

The winners of this new era will be those who adapt fastest, whether it’s through collaboration, pricing innovation, or leveraging data-driven insights.

Insight:

With WhatsApp Business API already powering millions of customer interactions across Africa, Nigeria’s telecoms and fintech players face a strategic choice, compete, collaborate, or risk being sidelined in the next wave of digital customer engagement.

The telecom regulator made this announcement in a statement on Friday, stating that the licensing framework aims at addressing fraud, spam, and other challenges in the telecommunications sector,

The proposed framework was introduced during a virtual Stakeholders’ Forum, a key step towards enhancing the sector’s integrity and ensuring a fair, transparent environment for all parties involved.

Dr. Aminu Maida, the executive vice chairman of NCC, presented the draft framework, through Mrs. Chizua Whyte, the acting head of Legal and Regulatory Services at the NCC, during a stakeholders’ forum.

A2P messaging, used for notifications such as bank alerts, promotional campaigns, and government updates, has become a vital communication tool in Nigeria.

However, the sector faces significant challenges, including consumer protection concerns, fraud, and data privacy issues, as well as an unequal distribution of value within the ecosystem.

“The international A2P messaging space in Nigeria faces gaps that have led to issues such as fraud, spam, and data privacy concerns. These challenges threaten the sustainable growth of this communication tool,” the NCC said.

The regulator emphasised its commitment to fostering innovation while ensuring a secure, transparent environment for businesses, consumers, and service providers.

The proposed framework aims to address these challenges by protecting consumers, promoting fair competition, and holding service providers accountable.

“This forum marks a pivotal step towards addressing these challenges,” the NCC said. “We are here to engage with all stakeholders—operators, aggregators, businesses, service providers, and consumers—to refine the framework and ensure it meets the needs of the entire ecosystem.”

The NCC stressed the importance of inclusivity and collaboration in creating an effective regulatory environment.

The commission’s efforts are focused on promoting a sustainable A2P messaging ecosystem that enables business innovation, enhances communication efficiency, and supports Nigeria’s socio-economic growth.

Stakeholders were encouraged to provide feedback and contribute ideas during the forum to help shape the final framework.

The NCC reiterated its commitment to creating a regulatory environment that supports innovation while safeguarding the interests of all stakeholders in the A2P messaging sector.

For further updates, the NCC urged stakeholders to remain engaged throughout the regulatory process, stressing the importance of cooperation in shaping the future of A2P messaging in Nigeria.