According to the report, total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was down 2.2% compared to May 2025.

Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 0.7%. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 2.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.5% (+0.1 ppt compared to May 2025), a record high for May.

International airflight demand fell 1.6% compared to May 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 3.1%. Capacity was down 2.4% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.7% (+0.7 ppt compared to May 2025).

Also, domestic demand contracted 3.1% compared to May 2025. Capacity decreased 2.1% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.0% (-0.8 ppt compared to May 2025).

“Air passenger demand was down 2.2% year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centered on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4% year-on-year fall. That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience. Notably, we also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China.

Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares. While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time. Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalized’ jet fuel pricing. In the meantime, airlines who are operating on a 2.0% margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets 

International RPK fell 1.6%, with capacity falling 2.4%. The pace of decline reduced compared to April and many regions hit record load factors for May, with only the Middle East posting a load factor decline.

Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 1.3% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity decreased 1.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.3% (+2.0 ppt compared to May 2025). In Vietnam, tighter limits on jet fuel imports led to significant capacity cuts on short haul routes, resulting in a decline in intra-Asia international traffic during the month.

European carriers saw a 3.8% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 2.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.4% (+1.2 ppt compared to May 2025).

Of note is the 15% increase in direct traffic to Asia, reflecting a continued shift to direct services between the two regions.

North American carriers increased demand 1.0% year-on-year. Capacity increased 0.6% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.0% (+0.4 ppt compared to May 2025).

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 28.8% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity fell 24.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 76.1% (-4.8 ppt compared to May 2025).

The impacts of the Iran war continue to cause a highly negative year-on-year traffic comparison, but month-to-month the impact is lessening and the rate of decline was almost half that of April.

Latin American airlines achieved a 10.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 9.0% year-on-year. The load factor was 85.0% (+1.2% ppt compared to May 2025).

African airlines saw an 8.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 8.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 73.4% (+0.4 ppt compared to May 2025).

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic RPK fell (-3.1%) in May 2026 compared to the same month last year, with the largest fall in China, which may be linked to higher fares and/or the Dragon Boat Festival occurring in June this year. The US also had a notable decline while most other markets achieved moderate growth.

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Key highlights of the report are as following:

• Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was up 5.7% compared to November 2024. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), increased 5.4% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.7% (+0.3 ppt compared to November 2024), a record high for November.
• International demand rose 7.7% compared to November 2024. Capacity was up 7.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.0% (+0.4 ppt compared to November 2024).
• Domestic demand increased 2.7% compared to November 2024. Capacity was up 2.7% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.2% (unchanged compared to November 2024).

“November 2025 saw continued strong demand for air travel with year-on-year growth of 5.7%. Load factors reached a new record of 83.7% for the month as airlines continued to satisfy growing passenger demand amid continuing capacity constraints stemming from challenges in the aerospace supply chain. The new year’s resolution for the manufacturing sector must be to increase production to meet the needs of their airline customers. The backlog of more than 17,000 aircraft orders that we reached in 2025 must be reduced in 2026,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets 

International RPK growth was a healthy 7.7% in November year-on-year. The international load factor, at 84.0%, was also a November record high. Compared to October, growth was slightly down in all regions except Africa.

Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 9.3% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 8.7% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.8% (+0.5 ppt compared to November 2024). Geopolitical tensions led to traffic between China and Japan slowing to single-digit growth for the first time in 2025.

European carriers had a 6.8% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 6.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.6% (+0.5 ppt compared to November 2024).

North American carriers saw a 4.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 4.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 81.0% (-0.1 ppt compared to November 2024). Looking at total traffic, North America has seen 10 consecutive months of year-on-year decline in load factor.

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 9.6% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 9.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 81.4% (+0.3 ppt compared to November 2024).

Latin American airlines saw a 4.4% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 4.7% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.9% (-0.2 ppt compared to November 2024).

African airlines were the stand-out performer, with an 11.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 8.5% year-on-year. The load factor was 74.3% (+1.8 ppt compared to November 2024).

Domestic Passenger Markets 

Domestic RPK rose 2.7% over November 2024 and load factor was steady at 83.2% on the back of a 2.7% capacity expansion. Brazil and India were the fastest-growing markets. Domestic U.S. traffic was the only major market to see a fall in demand, perhaps due to the government shutdown.

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Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), was up 5.8% year-on-year. The October load factor was 84.6% (+0.7 ppt compared to October 2024).

International demandrose 8.5% compared to October 2024. Capacity was up 7.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.6% (+1.1 ppt compared to October 2024).

Domestic demand increased 3.4% compared to October 2024. Capacity was up 3.6% year-on-year. The load factor was 84.6% (-0.1 ppt compared to October 2024).

“October was a strong month for air travel with demand up 6.6% on the previous year. Of particular note is the 4.5% international traffic growth for carriers based in North America which comes after several months of basically flat performance. The trends for the rest of the year look encouraging: scheduled seat capacity in November is set to expand 3.6% and in December by 4.7%. This points to strong demand for holiday travel and businesses looking to complete deals by the end of the year. Considering the uncertainty in the economic outlook for 2026, the resilience of demand for air travel, with the jobs and growth it brings, is a bright spot that governments should nurture with care,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

Air passenger market in detail – October 2025

Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets 

International RPK growth climbed to 8.5% in October year-on-year, with double-digit growth in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. All regions except the Americas saw load factors improve.

African airlines saw a 7.3% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 5.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 74.1% (+1.4 ppt compared to October 2024).

Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 10.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 9.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.4% (+1.4 ppt compared to October 2024).

International traffic within Asia had a stellar performance, with traffic to/from China, Japan, and Vietnam experiencing particularly robust expansions, each exceeding 10% growth year-on-year.

European carriers had a 7.4% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 6.0% year-on-year, and the load factor was 86.5% (+1.2 ppt compared to October 2024). 

North American carriers saw a 4.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 4.7% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.2% (-0.1 ppt compared to October 2024).

The trans-Atlantic corridor expanded by 3.8% year-on-year in October, a modest improvement over September’s 3.3% increase.

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 10.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 8.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 82.5% (+2.0 ppt compared to October 2024).

The Middle East’s strong growth is partly due to its low base a year ago, when geopolitical tensions disrupted traffic.

Latin American airlines saw a 7.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 8.2% year-on-year. The load factor was 84.6% (-0.8 ppt compared to October 2024).

 Domestic Passenger Markets 

Domestic RPK rose 3.4% over October 2024 and load factor fell by 0.1 ppt to 84.6% on the back of a 3.6% capacity expansion.

The US domestic market returned to modest growth after two months of contraction. Brazil’s domestic growth of 12.4% was the standout performance.

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