This surge, driven by Amazon’s extended Prime Day event and counter-promotions from rivals, shows a retail environment now defined by deep discounts, digital tools, and tariff anxiety.

Compared to last year’s same-period figure of $18.5 billion, this year’s projection from Adobe Analytics is a 28.4% year-on-year jump. It surpasses Black Friday 2024’s entire online haul by more than double. “This is equivalent to two Black Fridays,” Adobe said in its forecast.

The Prime Day window, now stretched from the usual 48 hours to 96, comes as Amazon tries to hold ground against Walmart’s July 8–13 “Deals” event and Target’s “Circle Week” running July 6–12. 

All three are pushing loyalty incentives, exclusive deals, and early access to shoppers willing to spend before the July 9 tariff deadline set by former President Donald Trump. That date is getting closer, with unresolved trade negotiations casting a shadow over pricing certainty.

With prices on edge and wallets under pressure, shoppers are moving fast. They’re chasing discounts and being tactical at the same time. Mobile phones are expected to drive more than half of all purchases, accounting for $12.5 billion, as real-time alerts and notifications trigger impulse buying. 

Buy Now, Pay Later usage is also climbing, with Adobe estimating it will cover 8% of total online spend, up from 7.6% last year.

Adobe expects a massive uptick in affiliate-driven sales, noting that nearly 20% of this year’s revenue will come from influencer and affiliate links, a 16.6% increase from last year. 

Generative shopping tools, including bots and assistants embedded in apps and websites, are leading to a 3,200% increase in traffic to retail platforms compared to 2024’s Prime Day.

What are people buying? Apparel tops the discount chart with an average 24% markdown, followed by electronics at 22% and TVs at 17%. Appliances (16%), toys (15%), furniture (14%), and computers (12%) also feature heavily. Sporting goods round out the list at 10%. 

Back-to-school essentials—backpacks, headphones, lunch boxes—are flying off digital shelves as early buyers hunt for bargains before price hikes become a reality.

The numbers behind this retail explosion are based on Adobe’s analysis of over 1 trillion visits to U.S. e-commerce sites, spanning 100 million product listings and 18 categories. It’s not a sample, it’s the system.

Retailers, meanwhile, aren’t resting. They’re under pressure to match or beat Amazon on delivery times, perks, and price cuts.

The battleground isn’t just Prime Day, but the wider race for digital takeover in an economy where inflation, trade policies, and evolving consumer habits are changing everything in real time.

The extension, which doubles last year’s two-day event, is a celebratory nod to Prime Day’s 10-year milestone with a goal to boost shopper engagement, flush out stagnant inventory, and fend off an aggressive lineup of retail challengers, from Walmart and Target to TikTok Shop and Temu.

“We’re extending it to four days because our members have told us they just need more time to shop the deals,” said Jamil Ghani, Amazon’s vice president of worldwide Prime.

That added time may also be Amazon’s way of pulling more money from shoppers already walking a tightrope between inflation and digital temptation. 

In 2024, consumers in the U.S. spent $14.2 billion during Prime Day, an 11% climb from the year before, Adobe Analytics reported. The average household shelled out $152, and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) use surged by 16.4%, reflecting how financial pressure is fuelling alternative spending strategies.

Mobile purchases made up nearly 50% of all sales, while social media platforms emerged as key traffic funnels, second only to paid display ads. 

TikTok Shop is drawing in younger spenders with its own flash deals, slashing prices on tech, clothes, and dorm-room essentials. 

ByteDance’s U.S. retail arm is promoting “Deals For You Days” to coincide with Amazon’s big week, while Walmart is running “Deals Days” and Temu has launched “Temu Week,” offering up to 90% off select goods.

However, Amazon is actively recruiting the next generation of loyalists by offering discounted Prime memberships to people aged 18 to 24. This is paired with youth-oriented perks like free Audible trials, Grubhub+ access, and exclusive product drops, often promoted by influencers embedded within Gen Z’s algorithmic feeds.

To keep shoppers glued to their carts, Amazon will unleash “Today’s Big Deals” every day and introduce new offers every five minutes during high-traffic periods. The goal is to maintain a steady dopamine drip of urgency and novelty.

Retail experts see the shift not just as a longer sale, but as a broader signal that Amazon is adapting its retail machinery to meet evolving consumer expectations.

“There’s real uncertainty about how global economic shifts and potential tariffs might impact both product availability and pricing in the coming months,” said Rob Garf, senior vice president at retail intelligence firm Cordial. “Amazon wants to front-load those sales while they can.”