The company’s latest iPhone 17 series, launched on September 19, has already attracted high demand in key markets like the United States and China. 

Strong demand for the high-end iPhone 17 Pro models, known for their sharper displays, expanded storage, and A19 Bionic chip, has been the driving force behind the surge. 

Research firm Counterpoint reported that iPhone 17 sales in the first 10 days were 14% higher than those of the iPhone 16 lineup, with the premium models topping orders.

According to data compiled by LSEG, Apple’s iPhone sales for the July–September quarter are projected to rise 8.6% to $50 billion, a record for the fiscal fourth quarter. 

Total revenue is estimated at $102.17 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year, while earnings per share are expected to come in at $1.77. The period captured only a few days of iPhone 17 sales, suggesting even stronger results ahead during the holiday season, Apple’s most profitable quarter.

Apple’s stock climbed 24% in the third quarter, its best performance in over two years, helping the company reach a $4 trillion market valuation on 28 October. 

However, despite this achievement, Apple is still behind some of its Big Tech competitors in market performance due to its slower integration of AI tools.

“Apple is riding high into earnings with better-than-expected iPhone 17 sales in both the U.S. and China, buoying it back to top-smartphone-provider status,” said Jacob Bourne, an analyst at eMarketer. “Yet the battle is far from won as questions about its AI standing linger.”

The company is still being investigated over its artificial intelligence strategy. Reports of high-profile talent exits and delays in its AI-powered Siri upgrade, now expected in 2026, have led to doubts about Apple’s competitiveness in an industry embracing AI. 

Bob O’Donnell, president of TECHnalysis Research, said: “They’re clearly challenged. They have not come up with any compelling offerings and they don’t seem to have a strategy that’s compelling enough to keep a lot of very high-end AI talent working there.”

In China, Apple’s September-quarter shipments also saw growth from the new iPhone lineup, despite competition from Huawei and Xiaomi. 

However, sales of the slimmer iPhone 17 Air have been sluggish. Its $1,000 price tag, single-lens camera, and delayed pre-orders in China, caused by pending eSIM approval, have numbed eagerness among budget-conscious buyers.

Beyond sales, Apple is still pushing its manufacturing diversification strategy. The company has been shifting more of its iPhone production to India to reduce dependence on China and cushion against U.S. tariffs. 

This comes with short-term costs, Apple expects about $1.1 billion in tariff-related expenses for the quarter, but analysts say the long-term benefits of its Indian supply chain could outweigh the initial impact.

While the company’s financial outlook appears strong, all eyes will be on CEO Tim Cook during the earnings call. Investors expect him to outline Apple’s next steps in AI development, a space where competitors like Microsoft and Google are already setting the pace.

This revised outlook, published by Counterpoint Research, results from issues over U.S. tariff policies and the ripple effects they’re having on manufacturers, supply chains, and consumers.

The earlier forecast stood at 4.2%, but with Washington’s trade stance remaining uncertain and a recent announcement from President Trump introducing new tariffs on key imports, that rate has evaporated. 

Although the U.S. has temporarily suspended tariffs on smartphones and other tech products, the damage is already visible in market sentiment.

I see what’s happening: manufacturers are on edge. Apple and Samsung, two of the biggest names in the smartphones market, are scaling back the expected volume of shipments.

This is not about supply alone, but cost too. With prices rising along the supply chain, manufacturers are passing the burden onto consumers. People are thinking twice before upgrading their devices. That hesitation hurts the entire industry.

Counterpoint also noted that China, the world’s largest smartphone market, is not immune. Year-on-year shipment growth there is expected to flatten. That’s no surprise when you consider the stress from economic fluctuations, weak consumer confidence, and worsening geopolitical tensions.

In contrast, Apple is slowly untangling itself from China. Around 20% of iPhones imported into the U.S. now originate from India. This change is a necessary buffer against the instability of U.S.-China trade relations.

International Data Corporation (IDC) has already lowered its growth projection for 2025 from 2.3% to a meagre 0.6%. According to IDC, “tariff-driven economic uncertainty and a pullback in consumer spending” are the key forces dragging the market down.

These revised numbers on smartphone shipments suggest supply chains in flux, global inflation biting into purchasing power, and a tense political climate that makes long-term planning difficult for tech giants.

If these warnings hold, 2025 won’t be the recovery year the smartphone industry had hoped for. Instead, we may be entering a phase where resilience, not growth, becomes the central strategy.