Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics alongside the April inflation report showed that some states experienced significantly higher inflationary pressure than the national average of 15.69 percent.

Analysts say the states most affected were largely those facing higher logistics costs, food supply disruptions, insecurity affecting farming activities, and elevated transportation expenses.

Food inflation remained the strongest driver across many states, particularly in areas heavily dependent on inter-state movement of agricultural produce.

The rising inflation figures reflect the broader economic pressures facing consumers nationwide as fuel costs, electricity expenses, and exchange rate volatility continue to affect prices of goods and services.

Economic experts note that inflationary pressure tends to vary across states depending on local production capacity, transportation infrastructure, insecurity levels, urban demand concentration, and access to stable supply chains.

The latest figures are expected to intensify concerns among policymakers over the cost-of-living situation confronting millions of Nigerians.

Analysts also warn that prolonged inflationary pressure could deepen poverty levels and reduce consumer spending, especially among low-income households.

According to the CPI report for April, month-on-month, the headline index stood at 2.13 per cent compared to 4.18 per cent in March.

Year-on-year, food inflation stood at 16.06 per cent compared to 24.68 per cent in April 2025. However, month-on-month, the food index was 3.63 per cent, representing a 0.54 per cent decline compared to 4.17 per cent in the preceding month.

The statistical agency attributed the moderation in food inflation to changes in average prices of millet whole grain, yam flour, ginger, beef, garri, yam tuber, pepper, cray fish, cassava tuber, beans, Irish potatoes, tomatoes, wheat grain, soy beans, guinea corn, plantain, carrots, among others.

Similarly, core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 15.86 per cent, year-on-year in April compared to 26.05 per cent in the same month of 2025.

However, month-on-month, the core index stood at 1.03 per cent in April, compared to 4.03 per cent in the preceding month.

Year-on-year, urban inflation stood at 15.40 per cent and 1.86 per cent month-on-month in April compared to 3.16 per cent in the preceding month.

Also, rural inflation stood at 16.36 per cent year on year in April, while month-on-month, the index stood at 2.80 per cent from 6.73 per cent in March.

At the state level, year-on-year, headline inflation was highest in Sokoto (25.74 per cent), Bauchi (22.52 per cent), and Zamfara (22.03 per cent), while Edo (5.91 per cent), Borno (6.72 per cent), and Jigawa (7.04 per cent) recorded the lowest rise in prices.

Month-on-month, however, the highest price increases were recorded in Niger (5.66 per cent), Kano (4.50 per cent), and Plateau (4.39 per cent), while Bayelsa (0.64 per cent), Enugu (0.98 per cent), and Rivers (1.02 per cent) recorded the lowest rise.

Year-on-year, food inflation was highest in Enugu (32.67 per cent), Kwara (30.77 per cent), and Adamawa (30.14 per cent), while Borno (1.67 per cent), Jigawa (6.17 per cent), and Taraba (7.19 per cent) recorded the slowest rise in food prices.

Month-on-month, food inflation was highest in Niger (8.53 per cent), Bauchi (6.78 per cent) and Kogi (6.72 per cent), while Kebbi (0.23 per cent), Katsina (0.47 per cent), and Bayelsa (1.29 per cent) recorded the slowest rise in food prices.

The April inflation rise marks the second consecutive monthly increase after Nigeria previously experienced an extended period of inflation moderation.

The latest figure, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), represents an increase from the 15.38 percent recorded in March, signaling renewed inflationary pressure after months of gradual easing.

Economic analysts attribute the latest increase largely to higher transportation costs, rising food prices, energy-related expenses, and the lingering impact of fuel price adjustments across the economy.

The development comes at a time when businesses and consumers are already grappling with elevated operational costs, weaker purchasing power, and continued pressure on disposable incomes.

Analysts say food inflation remains one of the biggest contributors to the rising headline figure, particularly as logistics costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect the movement of agricultural produce nationwide.

The renewed inflationary trend could also complicate monetary policy decisions for the Central Bank of Nigeria, which had recently begun easing its aggressive tightening cycle after inflation showed signs of moderation earlier in the year.

The latest inflation increase comes despite ongoing government reforms and efforts to stabilise the naira, improve domestic refining capacity, and strengthen macroeconomic conditions.

Economists warn that sustained increases in food and energy prices could further weaken consumer confidence and increase pressure on businesses already battling high operating costs.

Analysts and market observers are projecting headline inflation to rise to about 15.85–15.95 percent in April 2026, up from the 15.38 percent recorded in March, according to market forecasts ahead of the latest inflation report from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The projected increase would mark the second consecutive monthly rise in inflation after Nigeria’s inflation rate reversed its earlier easing trend in March.

The March inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that headline inflation rose to 15.38 percent from 15.06 percent in February, driven largely by rising food prices, transportation costs, and accommodation expenses.

Economic analysts say the continued inflationary pressure reflects the lingering impact of higher fuel prices, exchange rate volatility, and rising logistics costs across Nigeria’s supply chain.

According to analysts at Parthian Partners, inflationary pressure in April was influenced by the continued pass-through effect of recent petrol price increases, although month-on-month inflation may moderate slightly compared to the sharp spike seen in March.

The firm noted that petrol prices, which surged from below N900 per litre to above N1,200 in March, continued to exert pressure on transportation and food prices even as the pace of adjustment slowed in April.

Data from the March Consumer Price Index report showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the biggest contributors to inflation, accounting for 5.55 percentage points of the headline figure, followed by restaurants, accommodation services, and transportation.

The report also highlighted worsening inflationary conditions in several rural communities, where food and transportation costs rose sharply.

Economists warn that the renewed inflation trend could complicate monetary policy decisions for the Central Bank of Nigeria as authorities attempt to balance inflation control with economic growth.

Analysts expect the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank to maintain a cautious stance amid concerns that persistent inflationary pressures could weaken consumer purchasing power and increase business operating costs.

Despite the recent uptick, inflation remains significantly lower than the levels recorded in 2025, when headline inflation exceeded 27 percent.

However, economic experts caution that sustaining the earlier disinflation momentum may become increasingly difficult if energy prices, logistics costs, and food supply challenges continue to worsen.

The latest inflation figures from the National Bureau of Statistics are expected to provide clearer direction on the country’s price stability outlook and broader economic conditions in the coming months.

While the headline inflation rate showed some relief, sectoral analysis of different industries highlighted which industries are thriving and those that are struggling. Below are analysis of how the inflation rate of key sectors in Nigeria fared in April 2025:

● Food:

The drop in inflation was driven largely by a decrease in food inflation, which dropped to 21.26% year-on-year in April from 40.53% in 2024, which is technically due to a change in the base year.

However, on a month-on-month basis, food inflation dropped by 0.12% in April to 2.06% from the prior month’s 2.18%, as prices of food items like wheat grain, yam flour, soya beans, and rice reduced.

A closer look at factors driving the reduction in food prices, the report showed that the farm produce inflation rate decreased to 0.95% in April from March’s 2.64% inflation rate. This showed that prices of farm products like fruits and vegetables increased at a slower rate compared to the previous month.

● Energy:

Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels are some of the major drivers of Nigeria’s inflation rate, as they contribute 2.00% year-on-year and 0.16% on a month-on-month basis.

The significant contribution of the energy sector to Nigeria’s inflation rate is not surprising, as businesses, households, and industries require electricity to operate.

According to the report, the energy inflation rate rose to 13.6% in April from 9.21% in March 2025. Rising crude oil prices, coupled with frequent electricity outages, which necessitate the need for businesses and households to rely on alternative sources like generators, could be attributed as factors driving the increase in energy inflation.

● Information and Communication:

The information and communication sector is one of the sectors contributing the least to Nigeria’s inflation rate. It contributed 0.78% in April on a year-on-year basis and 0.06% month-on-month.

The sector’s lower contribution to the inflation rate could be attributed to its reliance on digital platforms, unlike sectors relying on physical goods, and the relative stability of prices in the sector.

● Goods and Services:

The inflation rate from the goods and services sector eased in April compared to the previous month. According to the CPI data, the service sectors recorded a drop in inflation rate from 3.44% in March to 2.20% in April. While the goods sector eased to 1.89% from 3.89% in March.

The reduction in the service sector showed that prices of services like healthcare, education, personal care, and banking rose slowly in April, which could signify a potential easing in service delivery. While the prices of manufactured goods also increased at a slower price.