What used to be a near-total lock on the market is now slipping through M-PESA’s fingers. The Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) released fresh data confirming the downward trend, pointing to several key forces reshaping the sector: regulatory reforms, aggressive competition, and shifting customer priorities.

The biggest challenger is Airtel Money. Its market share has more than tripled in just two years, from 2.9% in 2023 to 9.1% in Q1 2025. Behind that growth is a focused, multi-pronged strategy. 

Airtel has cut transaction fees, refunded charges in airtime through Smarta Bundles, and struck key partnerships with retailers like Naivas to improve its agent network, especially in hard-to-reach areas.

Mobile money subscriptions jumped to 45.4 million during the quarter, accounting for 86.6% penetration in Kenya. SIM card subscriptions also rose to 76.2 million, up by 6.7%, aided by telcos’ renewed efforts to win back users. 

And Airtel is riding the wave. Its user base is now estimated at around 8 million, and its agent network is growing fast.

Even though M-PESA still has over 299,000 agents across the country, Airtel Money’s agent expansion is gaining pace. The total number of registered mobile money agents climbed 5.5% to 417,000 in Q1 2025, meaning challengers now have more reach than ever before.

Lower pricing is one of Airtel’s biggest weapons. To send KES 1,000 across networks, users pay KES 11 on Airtel, while M-PESA charges KES 13. Withdrawals cost less on Airtel too, KES 2 cheaper on average. These differences may seem small on paper, but for everyday users, they quickly add up.

The game-changer, though, was Kenya’s 2022 rollout of mobile money interoperability. That policy allowed people to send and receive money across different platforms, ending the long-standing advantage Safaricom had enjoyed by keeping its ecosystem closed. 

With those walls down, customers now move more freely, and Airtel has made it worth their while. Incentives like cashback on bank-to-wallet transfers are pulling users in.

Still, full freedom hasn’t arrived yet. Interoperability at the agent level, where users could walk into any mobile money outlet, regardless of network, is still pending. Once the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) rolls that out, and they’ve promised to, Safaricom may see even greater churn.

M-PESA isn’t going quietly. It still processes more than 30 billion transactions annually, worth over KES 38.29 trillion ($296 billion), and serves 34 million users. But it’s no longer operating in a vacuum.

Another major change is coming from the CBK’s new payments infrastructure, the Fast Payment System (FPS), which is under development. Inspired by India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI), the FPS aims to offer instant, cross-platform payments between banks, fintechs, and mobile money wallets. 

It’s being designed in partnership with India’s NPCI and, if successful, could radically reshape how digital money moves in Kenya.

By the time FPS is live, possibly by 2026, it may deliver what regulators and consumers alike have been waiting for: a truly level playing field.

The case for Kenya’s mobile money resilience is now about who adapts faster, and right now, Airtel is doing just that.

This isn’t about PR or green labels for marketing brochures, accountability has become indispensable. The CBK has rolled out the Kenya Green Finance Taxonomy (KGFT)—a list that defines what’s actually green and what’s not. 

Banks are expected to use this as a yardstick when deciding who gets the money and at what environmental cost.

And it’s not just about making sure banks say the right things. It’s about what they fund. The move targets one of the biggest problems in sustainable finance—greenwashing. 

That’s when companies slap on the “eco-friendly” badge without the receipts to back it up. According to CBK, “The taxonomy may support the reduction in financial sector risks through enhanced management of environmental performance.”

For now, banks in Kenya can ease into it. Voluntary use of the taxonomy is allowed until the end of the 18-month grace period. After that, compliance will no longer be optional. 

The regulator said: “The CBK is issuing this framework to commercial banks and mortgage finance companies licensed under the Banking Act (Cap 488) for application on a voluntary basis, for a period of 18 months from the date of issuance. Thereafter, implementation will be mandatory.”

So, what’s in it for the banks? Clarity. Direction. And for those who get it right—trust from green investors. KGFT will help lenders separate real climate-aligned projects from those just playing dress-up. 

It provides a consistent method for measuring how much of their portfolio is tied to carbon-heavy industries. Oil and gas, large-scale agriculture, and heavy polluters? They’ll no longer fly under the radar.

What’s driving this? The urgency is real. Kenya ranks among the countries most exposed to climate shocks. Floods, droughts, unpredictable rain patterns—you name it. And with vital sectors like agriculture and energy hanging in the balance, the financial sector can’t afford to keep fuelling the problem.

The KGFT has roots in international best practice, with the European Investment Bank lending its expertise. CBK says it’s tailored to local needs, but draws lessons from systems already running in the EU and South Africa. “During the 18-month transition, institutions will build their capacity and make the necessary adjustments in preparation towards mandatory application of the taxonomy,” CBK added.

To be clear, this isn’t just a box-ticking exercise. It’s a change in how the financial sector thinks. It changes how banks assess risk, who they lend to, and how they report on their exposure to climate-related liabilities. Once the full rollout kicks in, no bank will be able to hide behind vague sustainability claims.

Founded in 2003, Cellulant is among the pioneer Financial Technology (fintech) Companies in Kenya and Africa at large and has a history of driving innovation through creative technical solutions delivered with a streamlined user experience. 

Over the last decade, the company has evolved in its payments solutions, from mobile banking services to offering a full-stack one-stop-shop payments platform for global, regional and local businesses.

The authorisation permits Cellulant to continue enabling businesses collect payments online and offline, while allowing anyone pay from their mobile money, local and international cards or directly from their bank.

“As the payments industry has evolved globally, we are fortunate that the Central Bank of Kenya has provided a regulatory framework and environment that has allowed companies such as Cellulant to operate while adhering to the highest standards in providing payment solutions to businesses and their users. This authorisation will enable us to continue serving our customers better with guaranteed secure and regulated conditions for us to facilitate payments,” said Faith Nkatha, Cellulant’s country manager in Kenya.

Cellulant has partnerships with 45 of the largest mobile money operators and 210 banks across Africa and has a converged payments ecosystem that brings together a network of banks, businesses, mobile network operators and consumers. 

The company provides its services in 35 countries across Africa, including Ghana, Botswana, Nigeria, Kenya, Cameroon, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Africa, offering the largest and most connected payments network on the continent.

Commenting on the state of the payments ecosystem in Africa, David Waithaka, group chief revenue officer at Cellulant, said: “A connected payment network is integral to the prosperity of businesses in Kenya and Africa at large. Because of the industry’s fragmentation, most businesses are forced to integrate multiple payment providers simply to operate on a day-to-day basis. For Cellulant, simplifying the payment experience and providing merchant tools to manage all their payments  frees businesses to focus on their growth and consequently create opportunities that accelerate growth for all.”