It was a statement of intent, one that assumed policy alignment, capital flow, and infrastructure rollout would move in tandem.

Five years later, the numbers tell a more sobering story. As of November 2025, broadband penetration stood at 50.58%, leaving a nearly 20-percentage-point gap between policy ambition and on-ground reality.

To understand why Nigeria stalled halfway, and what must change next, Techeconomy engaged industry experts whose perspectives reveal a complex mix of legacy bottlenecks, economic realities, and structural miscalculations.

Was FX Volatility the Real Culprit? Not Entirely

Nigeria’s volatile exchange rate and rising inflation have undoubtedly increased the cost of imported telecom equipment. But Dr. Olusola Teniola, director of Strategy at ipNX, cautions against reducing the broadband shortfall to macroeconomics alone.

According to him, many of the challenges were already embedded in the system long before FX pressures worsened.

“RoW issues, multiple taxation and infrastructural gaps such as InfraCo deployments were legacy headwinds dating back to 2013,” Teniola explained. “It was assumed these would be resolved early in the plan’s lifecycle, but that didn’t happen.”

While recent Federal Government efforts, particularly in partnership with the World Bank Group, have begun addressing the business environment, the delayed interventions meant the original 2025 deadline became unrealistic.

By contrast, Engineer Aderemi Adeyeye, President/CEO of Enext Inc., was more direct:

“No. The necessary investment was not being made even before the naira devaluation.”

Here, both experts converge on a critical point: FX volatility worsened the problem, but it did not create it.

CAPEX, ROI and the Rural Broadband Reality

One of the most persistent challenges remains capital expenditure. Telecom CAPEX has slowed, and the question is whether Nigeria’s current ROI profile can still attract large-scale investment, especially for rural connectivity.

Dr. Teniola sees CAPEX as cyclical and constrained by the absence of patient capital, noting that African markets rarely attract long-horizon investors without structured support.

“The proposed SPV under Project Bridge reflects the kind of patient capital required for capital-intensive infrastructure,” he said, pointing to undersea cable projects like 2Africa as proof that the right framework can still unlock FDI.

Engineer Adeyeye, however, takes this stance:

“Tier-1 investors will never fund rural broadband without necessary government investment.”

This divergence highlights a policy fault line: should government act as a facilitator or a direct co-investor? Without clarity, rural broadband remains commercially unattractive.

Right of Way: The Bottleneck Everyone Agrees On

On Right of Way (RoW), there was rare unanimity.

Engineer Adeyeye described it plainly:

“It is surely a bottleneck.”

Dr. Teniola added nuance, noting that even in states where RoW has been harmonised or waived, deployment has not always followed.

“States are not legally obligated to align. While about 26 states have keyed into the World Bank’s SABER programme, inconsistent charges and bureaucratic processes still discourage CAPEX.”

The result is a patchwork broadband map, where fiber deployment depends more on state-level politics than national policy.

Mobile-First Nigeria: A Strategic Choice or a Constraint?

Nigeria’s broadband growth has leaned heavily on mobile technologies, 4G, and potentially 5G. Dr. Teniola describes Africa as a “mobile broadband-first continent,” driven by faster deployment cycles and quicker returns on investment.

But he also warns of a ceiling.

“There is a limit to what wireless technology can provide. Only fixed-line infrastructure can consistently deliver the high speeds that define true broadband.”

Engineer Adeyeye agrees the challenge was underestimated.

“Yes,” he said bluntly when asked whether Nigeria misjudged the difficulty of fixed-line deployment.

Both experts acknowledge that while mobile broadband expanded access quickly, deep penetration requires fiber to homes, offices and institutions—a reality Nigeria has yet to fully confront.

Spectrum: Availability without Accountability

The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has been praised for its proactive spectrum auctions, yet utilization remains uneven.

Dr. Teniola argues that spectrum pricing and economics are misaligned with rural realities.

“Without affordable spectrum and incentives like grants or waivers, operators cannot justify serving underserved areas.”

Engineer Adeyeye suggests weak enforcement:

“Operators have national spectrum licences without any intention of covering more than a few cities.”

Here, the consensus is uncomfortable but clear: access to spectrum has not translated into universal service.

E-Government, Purchasing Power and Digital Adoption

While the NCC has recently been ranked among Nigeria’s top-performing MDAs, both experts believe digital adoption cannot outpace affordability.

Dr. Teniola emphasized that e-government under the Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) framework must be matched with nationwide digital skills and change management.

Engineer Adeyeye’s response was simpler, and starker:

“Yes,” the masterplan needs a pivot.

Broadband, they suggest, is not just an infrastructure challenge but a human and economic one.

Satellite Broadband, MVNOs and the Post-2025 Question

Is satellite broadband, like Starlink, Nigeria’s silver bullet? Dr. Teniola sees it as complementary, not substitutive.

“Where terrestrial networks exist, satellite should serve as backup. Ubiquitous connectivity depends on affordability.”

On MVNOs, he is optimistic, noting their historical role in serving unmet demand since 1998.

“Anyone with a Tier-5 MVNO licence can go beyond and address the unserved.”

What Must Change After 50%?

Looking ahead, Dr. Teniola proposes three urgent policy shifts for 2026:

1. Public State Broadband Readiness Rankings
2. Local content development across the ICT value chain
3. Grants via a dedicated Telecom Bank to support indigenous hardware, software and services

The message from both experts is unmistakable: 50% is not failure, but it is not success either.

Without unified RoW enforcement, smarter spectrum incentives, government-backed rural investment, and a recalibrated broadband strategy, Nigeria risks remaining permanently stuck at the halfway mark.

In broadband, ambition is easy. Alignment is hard. Delivery is everything.

At the heart of the conference, held at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre, was a clear message: Nigeria is ready to shape the future of digital governance through innovation, research, and collaboration.

A Renewed Digital Vision

Guided by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which prioritizes economic reform, infrastructure development, good governance, and digital inclusion, Nigeria used the ICEGOV 2025 platform to reaffirm its commitment to driving a people-centered digital economy.

Leading this charge were Dr. Bosun Tijani, minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, and Kashifu Inuwa, director-general of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA).

Together, they echoed a unified vision: technology must not only fuel economic growth but also build trust, transparency, and efficiency in governance.

Setting the Global Digital Governance Agenda

Co-chaired by Prof. Tshilidzi Marwala, Rector of the United Nations University and UN Under-Secretary-General, alongside Dr. Tijani, the 18th edition of ICEGOV, themed “Shaping the Future of Digital Governance through Cooperation, Innovation, and Inclusion”, brought together experts from academia, government, and industry to explore how technology can improve public service and social inclusion.

Prof. Marwala, in his keynote, called for the responsible and inclusive development of artificial intelligence (AI), stressing that AI must serve humanity, not divide it.

“Artificial intelligence is shaping many areas of our lives, but it must be designed so that it does not leave anyone behind. AI will remain suboptimal until it works equally for all people, including Africans,” he said.

He urged leaders to democratize AI by ensuring that citizens have not only access to the technology but also a collective voice in deciding its use, a call that resonated strongly with Nigeria’s digital inclusion agenda.

Tijani: Innovation Must Serve Humanity

In his keynote address, Dr. Bosun Tijani described Nigeria as standing at the intersection of innovation, youth, and digital transformation.

“The state of a society reflects the ideas that dominate it. When good ideas strike, nations prosper; when bad ideas prevail, nations decay,” he said.

He introduced a thought-provoking model, the Source Balance Ratio, explaining how diverse ideas from government, civil society, academia, and the private sector must align to create effective digital policies.

Dr. Tijani emphasized that technology should always be guided by ethics and research rather than politics or profit.

“If our ideas are driven solely by short-term gains, we end up with regulations that react to innovation rather than guide it,” he cautioned.

NITDA’s Commitment to Digital Skills and Public Infrastructure

Echoing the Minister’s vision, Kashifu Inuwa described ICEGOV 2025 as a milestone in Nigeria’s journey to becoming a digital governance powerhouse.

He highlighted several ongoing initiatives under the Ministry’s strategic roadmap, Accelerating the Nation’s Collective Prosperity through Technical Efficiency, built on five pillars: Knowledge, Policy, Infrastructure, Trade, and Innovation.

Among the achievements he cited:

• National Digital Literacy Framework: to equip every Nigerian with digital skills from early education to adulthood.
• Collaboration with the Ministry of Education: to integrate digital literacy into school curricula by next year.
• 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) Programme: training Nigerians in high-demand digital skills.
• Civil Service Digital Training Initiative: with over 24,000 public servants already enrolled.
• Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI): development of a national data exchange platform and a Centre of Excellence for DPI to promote trust, transparency, and interoperability in governance.

“Digital transformation is not just about technology; it’s about improving how we serve citizens. Governance must meet people where they are, online,” Inuwa remarked.

Collaborating for Africa’s Digital Future

The conference drew a distinguished lineup of dignitaries, including Prof. Suwaiba Said Ahmad, Minister of State for Education; Mrs. Didi Esther Walson-Jack, Head of the Civil Service of the Federation (represented by Mrs. Fatima S.T. Mahmood); Senator Shuaibu Afolabi Salisu, chairman, Senate Committee on ICT & Cybersecurity; and Stanley Adedeji, chairman, House Committee on ICT.

They commended the Federal Government’s leadership in advancing digital governance, AI ethics, and innovation ecosystems, noting that sustained progress will depend on multilateral collaboration, institutional capacity-building, and stronger digital public infrastructure.

Nigeria’s Leadership on the Global Stage

As ICEGOV 2025 concluded, one message rang clear: Nigeria’s digital reform agenda is not a local ambition, it’s a continental mission.

With its growing investment in digital literacy, AI policy frameworks, and public sector innovation, Nigeria is positioning itself as a key player in shaping the future of electronic governance in Africa.

In the words of Dr. Tijani:

“Digital technologies are no longer just economic tools; they reshape our societies and our citizenship. Our responsibility is to ensure that innovation is guided by ethics, inclusivity, and the public interest.”

For years, citizens have repeatedly handed over their details for NIN registration, driver’s licences, BVN, SIM cards, and passports. That cycle could soon end. “By establishing a unified and secure data exchange platform, citizens will no longer need to repeatedly submit personal data to different government institutions, making access to public services faster and more seamlessly.

“The NGDX will open opportunities for innovation, allowing startups and enterprises to build solutions leveraging anonymised public data for improved healthcare delivery, agricultural productivity, fintech development, and education technology,” said Kashifu Inuwa, NITDA’s director general, during a stakeholders’ workshop in Abuja on Monday.

NIN, BVN, VIO, PVC, NDLEA: Nigeria’s Data Obsession is Turning Citizens into Files

The platform promises more than convenience, allowing authorised agencies to verify records on the backend, NGDX reduces inefficiencies, cuts costs, and accelerates processes that previously required multiple submissions. 

Fintechs and other service providers, which rely heavily on identity verification, are expected to benefit from quicker KYC processes and smoother access to government-backed data verification systems.

NGDX is a core part of Nigeria’s broader Digital Public Infrastructure strategy, designed to create interoperable and secure digital systems for public services. Real-time data exchange, secure APIs for identity verification, and access to anonymised data for innovation are central to its architecture. 

The initiative adheres to GDPR-aligned standards, including encryption, authentication, incident response, and audit trails. Accessibility features such as screen readers, digital braille, and sign language support are also included, ensuring inclusivity across the system.

The European Union, through its Global Gateway initiative, is backing the project. EU partners, including Finland, Estonia, Germany, and France, attended the Abuja workshop, sharing expertise on data governance and interoperability. 

Estonia, recognised for its advanced e-Government framework, is advising Nigeria on secure digital identity models and cross-agency data sharing.

If fully implemented, NGDX could transform the citizen-government experience, moving from long queues and repeated data submissions to a seamless digital interface. 

In opening public data to innovation, it also offers opportunities for startups and enterprises to tackle challenges in healthcare, agriculture, fintech, and education technology, potentially bolstering service delivery across Nigeria.

Hadiza Umar (Mrs), director, Corporate Communications & Media Relations at NITDA, said that the landmark step underscores the government’s commitment to fostering an inclusive, secure, and interoperable digital ecosystem that will drive economic growth, enhance public service delivery, and empower citizens across the nation.

Recall that on the 4th of March 2025, the Federal Government through the Federal Ministry of Communications, Innovations, and Digital Economy, released the Digital Public Infrastructure Framework.

“The DPI framework presents a platform for reforming public service delivery, utilising a whole-of-government approach, which includes the opportunity for the private sector to build and deliver cross-cutting services that will enhance citizens’ well-being and access to services.

The Framework also establishes the Nigerian Digital Public Infrastructure Centre (Ng-DPIC) as the program implementation office to coordinate the national effort to educate, support research and deliver appropriate knowledge management for developing Nigeria’s DPI”, Mrs. Umar said.

The aim is to engage meaningfully in developing a robust DPI-driven architecture that benefits society.

Continuing, she said, “In furtherance of the above, this draft Technical Standards for DPI provides a structured approach for developing and deploying Nigeria’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI).

“They define the essential technical requirements and proven techniques to ensure interoperability, security, and efficiency across digital services.

“By establishing clear guides, these standards support the seamless integration of DPI components, fostering a secure, scalable, and resilient digital ecosystem in Nigeria.

“Furthermore, it outlines the structure for integrating sectorial DPIs, including but not limited to digital identity systems, payment platforms, and data exchange frameworks. It aims to establish clear guidelines for interoperability, data protection, cybersecurity, and the participation of both public and private sector stakeholders in building digital public goods (DPGs), utilising these critical digital foundations.

“Extensive research, international best practices, and consultations with various stakeholders have guided the development of this draft technical standards.

“It reflects the government’s vision to leverage the power of digital technologies to achieve its national development objectives and improve the lives of all Nigerians”.

Key objectives of the draft Digital Public Infrastructure Regulation include:

1. Enhance Interoperability: Ensure seamless communication across platforms, agencies, and services
2. Ensure Data Security and Privacy: Protect sensitive information while complying with local and international regulations
3. Promote Accessibility and Usability: Create inclusive systems that are easy to navigate and cater to all citizens, including marginalised groups.
4. Define Performance Benchmarks: Establish metrics to ensure systems are reliable, scalable, and efficient.
5. Foster Governance and Compliance: Provide clear accountability, transparency, and regulatory alignment rules
6. Encourage Innovation: Facilitate the adoption of open-source technologies while adhering to proper usage guidelines.
7. Standardise Testing Practices: Ensure consistent validation of systems to meet defined technical and user requirements.

“The Federal Government recognises the crucial role of public input in shaping effective and impactful regulations.

“Therefore, it invites all stakeholders, including citizens, businesses, civil society organisations, academia, and international partners, to review the draft regulation and provide valuable feedback.

The draft Technical Standards for Digital Public Infrastructure Regulation is available for review on the website.

Stakeholders are encouraged to submit their comments and suggestions in writing regulations@nitda.gov.ng by May 8, 2025.

“Following the public consultation period, the Agency will carefully consider all feedback received before finalising and implementing the Digital Public Infrastructure Regulation.

“This initiative represents a significant milestone in Nigeria’s digital transformation journey.

“The Federal Government believes that a well-defined and effectively implemented DPI framework will be instrumental in unlocking the full potential of the digital economy and achieving sustainable and inclusive development for all Nigerians”, the director said.