New data from Stanbic Bank Kenya’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed companies reduced staffing levels during the month, ending a stretch of continuous job creation that had lasted since the start of 2025. 

Many businesses said the reductions mainly affected temporary workers as lower demand eased pressure on capacity.

The PMI fell to 46.6 in May from 49.4 in April, the steepest deterioration in business conditions since July 2024. A reading below 50 signals a contraction in activity.

The downturn reveals a strong slowdown across the private sector. New orders declined for a third consecutive month and at their fastest pace since mid-2025 as customers cut spending and tightened household budgets. 

Business activity also weakened further, with firms linking the decline to lower sales and softer demand.

Construction and services companies reported falls in both output and new orders during the month. Manufacturing was the only sector to record growth in production, while declines were recorded elsewhere. Agriculture and retail businesses were among those that reduced staff numbers.

Private sector employment fell after firms reported they had enough capacity to handle current workloads. Backlogs of work also declined for a third straight month, reducing the need for additional hiring.

Christopher Legilisho, economist at Standard Bank, said: “The Stanbic Bank PMI data for May reflects a deterioration of business activity by private sector firms. Inventory purchases slowed, from being expansive, because of weakening sales, cash flow concerns, and rising costs. 

“Consumer resistance to spend, alongside rising costs, contributed to contractions in new orders and output. These declines may stem from the week-long disruption to business activity because of nationwide protests by transportation sector players that constrained movement.”

High costs added to the challenges facing businesses and, ultimately, jobs in Kenya. The survey showed overall input price inflation accelerated to its strongest level since November 2023, driven largely by higher purchase costs, fuel expenses and transportation charges.

Although wage costs continually increase, businesses kept salary growth moderate. Many firms also slowed inventory purchases and held back spending as they sought to preserve cash due to weaker sales and tighter margins.

At the same time, companies passed part of the higher costs on to customers. Selling prices rose at the fastest pace in two and a half years, with all five monitored sectors reporting increases.

The weaker business conditions will likely lead to concerns about employment prospects, particularly as thousands of young Kenyans enter the labour market every month. Consumer-facing businesses, including startups and technology firms that depend on household spending, could also face softer demand if spending remains subdued.

Despite the difficult operating environment, firms were optimistic about the year ahead. Business confidence climbed to its highest level since February 2023, supported by plans to increase advertising, introduce new products and expand digital sales channels.

Legilisho added: “Inflationary pressures have intensified, constraining demand conditions, with input prices, purchase costs and output prices driven up by higher fuel and transportation costs. Still, despite subdued business momentum, firms remain optimistic about future conditions.”

New figures released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed the economy grew faster than the 3.13% recorded in the same period of 2025. 

Still, growth slowed slightly from the 3.99% posted in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The report points to resilience in the non-oil sector, even as crude oil production weakened during the quarter.

Agriculture recorded one of the strongest improvements. The sector grew by 3.15% in real terms, compared with just 0.07% in the first quarter of last year. Crop production was the biggest driver within the sector.

Services were the largest part of the economy, contributing 57.73% to total GDP. The sector expanded by 4.31% during the quarter, although that was slightly below the 4.33% growth recorded a year earlier.

Industry also improved moderately, growing by 3.50% from 3.42% in the corresponding period of 2025.

Nigeria’s non-oil sector continued to carry most of the economy. According to the NBS, the sector grew by 3.94% in real terms and accounted for 96.08% of total GDP in the quarter.

Telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial institutions, real estate, construction and road transport were among the sectors that supported growth.

Telecommunications was one of the strongest performers. Information and communication activities grew by 10.98% year-on-year and contributed 11.31% to real GDP, higher than the 10.59% recorded in the same quarter of 2025.

Trade contributed 17.89% to real GDP, while real estate accounted for 13.10%. The finance and insurance sector grew by 8.54%, and construction expanded by 6.38%.

In nominal terms, the country’s GDP stood at N110.79 trillion in the first quarter of 2026. That represents a 17.79% increase from the N94.05 trillion recorded in the same period last year.

Oil production, however, was under stress. Average daily crude oil output fell to 1.55 million barrels per day, lower than the 1.62 million barrels per day recorded in the first quarter of 2025. Production also dropped slightly from the 1.58 million barrels per day posted in the previous quarter.

Even with weaker output, the oil sector still recorded real growth of 2.57%, up from 1.87% a year earlier. Its contribution to total real GDP stood at 3.92%, slightly below the 3.97% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

The report also showed mixed performances across other sectors. Arts, entertainment and recreation recorded strong growth of 11.25%. On the other hand, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply contracted by 15.30% in real terms.

Education growth slowed to 1.22%, down from 2.47% in the same period last year.

Nigeria is currently dealing with high inflation, expensive living costs and pressure on household spending. Inflation has remained above 15% despite ongoing reforms aimed at stabilising the economy.

Since 2025, the federal government has pushed ahead with policies including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and fiscal reforms as it tries to strengthen public finances and attract investment.

Compared with some African economies, Nigeria’s latest GDP growth figure placed it ahead of South Africa, where growth slowed to 1.9% in the same period. Ghana recorded 3.5% growth in the first quarter of 2026.

This shows inflation cooling but still above the policy target that monetary authorities consider fully stable. 

At the same time, Nigeria’s benchmark interest rate stands at 26.5% after the central bank trimmed it by 50 basis points in February, aiming to support growth while inflation begins to ease. 

Looking from the perspective of a global macro moment, inflation is no longer running out of control, but it has not disappeared either. Central banks are now in a narrow corridor between being alert and being relieved.

So the important point for markets to consider this week is whether central banks are preparing to pivot, only pausing, or settling into a prolonged period of restrictive policy.

The Global Monetary Policy Sector

Across developed economies, monetary policy has entered a more complicated phase, with a tough cycle that began after the inflation shock of the early 2020s has largely stopped. But the expected rapid shift towards rate cuts has not arrived.

The discussion is now centred on timing.

In the United States, regulators are still balancing two conflicting issues. Inflation has cooled significantly from its earlier peaks, but several price categories are still stubborn. Housing expenses, medical services and utilities push core inflation higher even as energy prices fluctuate. 

Markets have also become more cautious about expecting aggressive rate cuts. Investors now believe there may be only one or two small reductions this year, far fewer than earlier forecasts. 

This is globally important, as monetary policy in the United States affects capital flows, borrowing costs and currency stability across much of the world.

Meanwhile, the global inflation environment is uneven. Across developed economies, headline inflation within the OECD slowed to about 3.3% at the start of 2026, a decline from the previous month but still above the levels central banks consider comfortable. 

In short, inflation is falling, but not quickly enough to allow policymakers to relax fully.

Nigeria’s Policy Balancing Act

The challenge is even more in frontier and emerging markets.

The Central Bank of Nigeria recently lowered its benchmark interest rate to 26.5%, showing assurance that inflation pressures may gradually ease. 

Even so, the cost of borrowing is still extremely high and the reason? Policymakers are trying to achieve three objectives at once:

• stabilise inflation
• support economic activity
• maintain currency stability

Achieving all three simultaneously is rarely possible.

Nigeria’s inflation rate is still above 15%, and the exchange rate influences domestic prices through imported goods and costs of energy. 

This is the central dilemma facing many emerging economies. They cannot ease policy too quickly because capital flows are sensitive to interest-rate differences between countries. If global rates stay high, funds tend to move towards advanced markets where returns are perceived to be safer.

The Inflation Problem That Has Not Fully Disappeared

Although headline inflation has fallen across many economies, several forces keep prices elevated.

The first is energy.

Oil markets are sensitive to geopolitical tensions and supply decisions. When crude prices jump, costs of transport and manufacturing quickly increase. That effect spreads through the economy.

Second, services inflation are sticky, wages have increased in many sectors since the pandemic years, and labour markets have not fully loosened.

Third, parts of the global economy are experiencing structural inflation. Supply chains are changing, countries are investing in domestic manufacturing capacity and trade policies are becoming more protectionist.

These forces make inflation slower to decline than many economists expected two years ago.

The Growth Question

While inflation is easing slowly, economic growth is also showing signs of fatigue.

Higher costs of borrowing have begun to influence business investment decisions. Companies are delaying expansion plans or financing them more carefully. Households are also adjusting their spending behaviour.

Unemployment in the United States has edged up to around 4.4%, showing a gradual cooling in the labour market. 

Central banks, therefore, face a classic policy trap, and if they keep rates too high for too long, economic growth could slow even more. If they cut rates too soon, inflation may return.

That trade-off explains the cautious tone in monetary policy discussions worldwide.

What Financial Markets Are Showing

Financial markets usually anticipate policy changes before central banks act.

Bond markets have already adjusted expectations. Long-term yields have been relatively elevated because investors believe interest rates may stay higher for longer than previously assumed.

Again, interest-rate differences between countries are affecting capital flows and exchange-rate movements.

For emerging markets, this is especially important because when developed economies maintain high interest rates, global investors move funds away from riskier assets towards safer government bonds.

The result can be currency pressure and tough financial situations in developing economies.

Why it is important for Emerging and Frontier Economies

For countries like Nigeria, global interest-rate cycles carry significant consequences and higher global rates tend to produce three effects.

First, capital flows shift towards developed markets. That reduces foreign investment in emerging economies.

Second, currencies may weaken as investors search for higher returns elsewhere.

Third, debt servicing costs increase, particularly for countries that borrow in foreign currencies.

This is why monetary policy decisions in economies ripple far beyond their borders.

Three Possible Paths for 2026

The global monetary policy cycle could evolve in several ways.

Scenario one: the pivot.
If inflation falls more quickly than expected and economic growth weakens, central banks may begin a gradual rate-cutting cycle.

Scenario two: the pause.
Inflation declines slowly but stays above target. Regulators hold rates steady for longer than markets expected.

Scenario three: higher for longer.
Energy shocks, wage pressures or geopolitical disruptions push inflation back up, forcing central banks to maintain restrictive policy for several more years.

At the moment, the second scenario appears most consistent with current data.

The Macro Question

From my perspective, the central issue isn’t about inflation l falling or not.

It probably will.

The issue is whether the world has entered a period where interest rates settle at structurally higher levels than the ultra-low era that followed the global financial crisis.

If that happens, the implications are wide-ranging. Asset prices, government borrowing, corporate investment and currency markets would all need to adjust to a new financial environment.

This was revealed in a new report by the African Private Capital Association (AVCA), developed in partnership with the Chamber of Corporate Trustees of Ghana and British International Investment (BII) under the Ghana Investment Support Programme (GHISP).

The report discloses a steep increase in pension funds’ appetite for alternative investments. More than half of Ghanaian pension providers now hold exposure to private capital, and 65% say they intend to raise allocations to private equity within the next five years.

By the end of 2024, total pension assets under management in Ghana reached GHS 86.4 billion ($6.2 billion), yet only 4.4% of the 25% limit set by regulators is being channelled into alternatives such as private equity and venture capital. 

This figure lags far behind Nigeria’s 34% utilisation of a 5% cap and South Africa’s 8% allocation under its 15% ceiling.

Despite this underutilisation, the report says that Ghana’s pension funds are gradually shifting from conservative savings strategies to more productive, growth-oriented investments. 

Many are targeting healthcare (55%), agribusiness (45%), and technology (40%), while by asset class, 38% favour property and infrastructure, 24% prefer private equity, and 19% are exploring venture capital.

However, AVCA’s findings also expose major obstacles preventing deeper engagement with private markets. Pension providers identified currency volatility, complex fund licensing processes, limited investable pipelines, and weak institutional capacity as key challenges. 

Nearly nine in ten pension funds (89%) interacted with fewer than three fund managers in the past year, underlining the limited depth of Ghana’s investment ecosystem.

The government’s May 2025 directive, which encourages pension funds and insurers to allocate at least 5% of assets to private equity and venture capital by 2026, has provided much-needed policy backing. This move is expected to mobilise domestic capital and drive growth across productive sectors.

To speed up progress, AVCA’s report outlines four key strategies:

• Enhancing data transparency and engagement between funds and managers
• Building institutional capacity through targeted training and pooled investment structures
• Deploying blended finance and co-investment tools to mitigate risk
• Advancing regulatory reforms to recognise Limited Partnerships and streamline fund licensing.

Commenting on the report, Abi Mustapha-Maduakor, chief executive officer of AVCA, stated:

“Ghana’s pension funds are at an inflexion point. The data highlights both the scale of investable domestic capital and the practical barriers that continue to hold it back. Unlocking this potential will require a combination of regulatory clarity, institutional capacity-building, and deeper collaboration between fund managers and local investors. 

“This mirrors a broader shift across Africa, where governments are enacting policies to channel domestic savings into productive investments at home and across borders. With these foundations in place, Ghana’s pension system can become a catalyst for long-term, sustainable growth.”

AVCA projects that Ghana could become a leader in pension-led private capital mobilisation in West Africa within five years if this momentum is sustained. The report forms part of AVCA’s Knowledge Exchange Initiative (KEI), a year-long capacity-building initiative launched in partnership with BII to enhance local institutional participation in private markets.

If Ghana’s pension reforms and fund managers align effectively, the country could bring in billions of local investment, turning its pension base into a new engine for national development.

The investment is aimed at improving access to credit for low-income public sector workers who are usually excluded from formal banking systems.

The three southern African countries continue to face serious economic challenges, including limited job opportunities, inadequate healthcare and education systems, and growing pressure from climate-related shocks. With international aid becoming less predictable, many households have struggled to sustain livelihoods or fund small-scale ventures.

Swedfund’s new funding seeks to close this gap by enabling more civil servants to access personal and business loans that support daily living and small enterprise growth. According to the organisation, these loans are not just about access to money but about fostering resilience and stimulating community-level economic development.

“With this loan we increase the possibilities for low-income individuals to secure financing that supports their livelihoods and productive activities, such as starting a small side business, expanding farming, covering education costs or building a house. This contributes to human development for many families and, in turn, fosters potential for local economic growth and more jobs,” said Jane Niedra, investment director of Financial Inclusion at Swedfund.

Select Africa’s customer base largely consists of civil servants, including teachers, nurses, and local administrators, who often find it difficult to obtain loans from traditional banks due to perceived high risk or lack of collateral. The company provides payroll-based lending, allowing borrowers to repay directly from their salaries, reducing default risk and enabling them to build a formal credit history over time.

Founded in 1999 with its first branch in Eswatini, Select Africa has since expanded its footprint across Lesotho, Malawi, Uganda, and Kenya. The Group now operates 19 branches and manages a gross loan book of about $108 million.

Through this partnership, Swedfund and Select Africa aim to unlock opportunities for thousands of underserved public workers, strengthening household incomes, encouraging entrepreneurship, and supporting the broader financial inclusion agenda in sub-Saharan Africa.

The directive was disclosed by Wale Edun, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, after Wednesday’s Federal Executive Council (FEC) in Abuja.

Edun explained that the President specifically called for a review of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC)’s 30% management fee and 30% frontier exploration deduction under the Petroleum Industry Act.

He directed the Economic Management Team, led by Edun, to present actionable recommendations to the FEC on the best path forward.

The review will cover agencies including the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), and NNPC Limited.

Speaking on the significance of savings and investment as a catalyst for growth, Tinubu said:

“Currently, public investment as a share of GDP stands at a low 5.0 per cent, largely due to insufficient public savings.

“We must urgently review and optimise our savings. This includes enhancing spending efficiency and reviewing deductions from the Federation Account, such as the cost of collection by revenue agencies, such as FIRS, Customs, NUPRC, and NIMASA.”

Citing the IMF’s Article IV Report published in July 2025, Tinubu noted that while it acknowledged Nigeria’s economic growth, it also stressed the need for investment-led growth. Identifying savings as the foundation of investment, the President aims to raise public savings by reviewing deductions and retention practices.

He reaffirmed his commitment to inclusive development, pointing to the recently launched Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme, which is designed to empower grassroots economic players, engage sub-national governments, and involve the private sector to ensure effective implementation.

He also urged state governors to prioritise productivity-enhancing investments and strengthen collaboration with local governments to tackle poverty.

This took place at the 29th Investiture and the 16th PfDs Mandatory Conference held on July 26, 2025, at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Alausa, Ikeja.

Mrs Aladi’s induction came on the strength of over two decades of high-impact service at Chevron Nigeria Limited, where she has led transformational initiatives in finance, engineering support, and strategic planning, leaving behind evident results, not lip service.

For Mrs Aladi, the fellowship is more than just a professional milestone. “It means a lot to me,” she told Techeconomy in an exclusive post-conferment interview. “It is a recognition of my professional affiliation and contribution to the growth of the energy company in Nigeria, where I’ve worked for over 25 years.”

A Career Built on Integrity and Impact

Mrs Aladi’s journey began with a B.Sc. Ed in Economics in 1992, later complemented by an MBA in Business Administration in 2014. Her early days at Chevron saw her managing critical payment processes and overseeing inter-company reconciliations.

From there, she moved into Finance Controls and eventually assumed the role of Finance Analyst in Joint Venture Support, where she oversaw cash flow operations linked to Nigeria’s 60% equity in Chevron’s joint venture operations.

But it wasn’t until she took on the monumental task of resolving a ₦100 billion debt owed to Chevron by the Nigerian government that her career entered a new phase.

“The climax for me is being able to relate with the government of Nigeria to make sure that there’s cash flow in Chevron… I sat down and recalibrated my algorithm… and I said to myself, ‘I’m going to succeed in this,’” she recalled.

What followed was a painstaking six-month engagement; working across ministries, digging through decades of documentation, building over 50 slides of evidence, and defending Chevron’s position before senior government and corporate officials.

“One by one, they accepted every one of them,” she said. “Even the NNPC were happy with the work and the presentation.”

The result? Full payment of the debt and renewed stability for Chevron’s cash flow, a victory that earned her awards and permanently changed her professional course.

Her portfolio of awards reads like a record of transformative change: NUIMS Special Recognition Award (2017) for cost optimization strategies. Project Excellence Award (2018) for helping secure over $120 million in project funding. Leadership and Innovation Award (2020) for initiatives that led to a $50 million reduction in financial leakages. Strategic Cost Management Award (2023) for a framework that improved budgeting accuracy and transparency across Chevron’s major capital projects.

Leading with Strategy, Delivering with Precision

In 2012, Mrs Vivian Aladi was invited to the Facilities Engineering Department, Chevron’s capital-intensive arm, to take charge of project finances. 

“They put it open for everybody to apply… we were over 15 people that applied, and I was selected,” she said. “The second person was a distant second to me.”

That role, meant to be temporary, became permanent. Today, she serves as Lead Advisor, Project Controls and Business Services, a role that sees her driving budget realignments, managing service-level agreements, onboarding engineers, and mentoring a cross-section of the workforce.

“I am a result-oriented person,” she said when asked what drives her impact. “I told myself, I’m going to achieve results that will be seen by everybody. And I mapped out the strategy… one by one, they turned into a pyramid for me.”

One of her most recognised strategies was during the 2020 downturn when she introduced a cost-prioritisation model that recovered $15 million in potential losses. 

She has also led initiatives that reduced financial leakages by $50 million and implemented frameworks that improved budgeting accuracy and transparency.

Building Systems and Building People

Beyond financial intelligence, Mrs Aladi is also about mentorship and succession planning. 

“When you are at that position, you start to think about succession planning… Who takes over this work? Who does this when you’re not there?” she explained. “You train them, mentor them, and take them through the nitty-gritty of what it takes to have a result-oriented mindset.”

She is an active member of AACE (since 2017) and has hosted knowledge-sharing sessions that bridge gaps between finance, engineering, and compliance. Her efforts to onboard new engineers and guide cross-functional teams have contributed to a more cohesive and future-ready workforce.

Her mentoring efforts have borne fruit. 

“Yesterday, we were doing a performance review. I was supposed to still be there. It was because of this event that I told my team to take charge. If I didn’t train anybody, I would not be able to do that.”

Mrs Aladi believes in empowering others to stand on their own, not just as workers but as thinkers and builders of systems. 

“I realign funds from underperforming projects to high-performing contracts so that we get optimum results from capital stewardship.”

Advice to the Next Generation

To young women hoping to follow in her path, Vivian is clear-eyed:

“It’s a very good profession, but it takes dedication. It’s not something you cut corners. It’s not something you say, ‘You manufacture figures.’ It’s not going to pay you. Shortcuts will cut you short, and you will not be able to get to your end goal.”

She insists on diligence, order, and documentation—not just to survive but to lead. “If you are not that meticulous, if you are not that organised, it will be difficult for you to survive and succeed in that profession.”

The Honour of Fellowship

Fellowship at ICEN is reserved for professionals whose actions, ethics, and national contributions stand out, and Professional Doctorate Award is even a testament of her tenacity and achievements in the field. It represents the high level of distinction in the Institute and comes only after rigorous vetting. It is not bought; it is earned.

Mrs Aladi met the standards and then some.

The conferment of Professional Doctorate Award on Mrs. Vivian Aladi places her among a select group recognised for direct contributions to economic growth and policy execution. 

Fellows are viewed as reference points not only in economics but in leadership and service to humanity.

For Mrs Aladi, the honour reflects a lifetime of walking the talk.

“I really appreciate God for seeing me through all this. I’m married with my lovely husband and my children,” she said, grounding her story in both faith and family.

With Nigeria facing economic challenges, including the dual scourge of unemployment and food insecurity, the theme of this year’s ICEN conference, professionals like Vivian Aladi provide a template for impact built on discipline, courage, and purpose.

Her journey is a national asset and in every role she has held, Mrs. Vivian Nkiru Aladi has brought discipline, foresight, and a collaborative spirit. Whether she is navigating high-stakes financial negotiations or simplifying complex reporting structures, her north star reiterates building resilient, efficient, and forward-looking systems that drive national growth.

Her story is a powerful reminder that dedication, knowledge, and empathy can shape industries and leave a lasting legacy. 

The investments cut across oil and gas, clean energy initiatives, and infrastructural projects, according to key highlights released by the Presidential Media Centre.

Breakdown of Investments

The lion’s share of the total investment—$5.5 billion—was channelled into the oil and gas sector, showing sustained confidence in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon resources despite global energy transitions. 

Again, $400 million was allocated to the Presidential Metering Initiative, a programme designed to enhance electricity metering nationwide, tackling incessant billing inefficiencies and boosting consumer confidence.

The Clean Mobility and Cooking Program received $700 million in funding, showing the extent of focus on clean energy solutions, particularly in areas of transportation and cooking, where many Nigerians still rely on non-renewable energy sources.

Asset Acquisitions Drive Growth

A closer look at asset acquisitions revealed a dynamic year for companies in Nigeria’s energy sector:

Shell Petroleum Development Company divested assets worth $1.3 billion to the Renaissance Consortium, opening opportunities for indigenous players.

Seplat Energy made a big move, acquiring ExxonMobil’s upstream assets for $1.3 billion, strengthening its place in the energy space.

Chappal Energies recorded two major deals, acquiring assets worth $1.2 billion from TotalEnergies and $860 million from Equinor.

These transactions align with trends of international oil companies (IOCs) restructuring their portfolios to meet energy transition goals, while indigenous companies strengthen their footprint in the local market.

Advancing Solar Energy with the G5 Sahel Project

In enhancing renewable energy, Nigeria is a top participant in the G5 Sahel Desert to Power Project, the largest solar energy initiative in Africa.

The project, with a master plan cost of $10 billion, aims to generate 10 GW of solar power across 11 Sahel countries.

It is funded by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the Green Climate Fund, backing the country’s commitment to renewable energy adoption and sustainability.

This initiative aims to largely boost electricity access in the Sahel region, combating energy poverty while reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

Nigeria had a strong 2024 for investments, innovation, and infrastructure development with an inflow of $6.7 billion into its energy sector. Balancing its rich oil and gas resources with an expanding adoption of renewable energy is the goal for sustainable energy growth.

This growth in the energy sector is expected to bolster Nigeria’s economy, create jobs, and enhance energy accessibility for millions of citizens.