A statement released on Sunday, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, the minister of Industry, Trade and Investment,  warned that the move could significantly impact both oil and non-oil trade flows to one of Nigeria’s key markets.

An announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump introduced sweeping tariff measures that could see import duties rise as high as 50%.

The policy shift, unveiled during a “Make America Wealthy Again” event at the White House’s Rose Garden, marks a sharp departure from the long-standing global commitment to free trade.

While providing the Federal Government’s first official response to the development, which has drawn widespread criticism from the European Union and various exporting countries,

Oduwole emphasised that the newly introduced tariffs could undermine the competitiveness of Nigerian products in the U.S. market and disrupt business activities, particularly within the non-oil export sector.

“Nigeria’s exports to the United States over the past two years have consistently ranged between $5 billion and $6 billion annually,” she noted.

“Over 90% of these exports comprise crude petroleum, mineral fuels, oils, and gas-related products. Fertilisers and urea make up the second-largest export category, accounting for approximately 2–3%, while lead exports contribute around 1%—about $82 million in value.”

The minister added that smaller volumes of agricultural exports—including live plants, flour, and nuts—represent less than two percent of Nigeria’s total exports to the U.S.

She warned that non-oil products, many of which previously benefited from exemptions under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), may now be adversely affected.

The new 10% tariff on certain product categories could diminish Nigeria’s price competitiveness and restrict access to the U.S. market, especially for value-added and emerging sectors critical to Nigeria’s economic diversification.

“Small and medium-sized enterprises that built their business models around AGOA exemptions will now face increased costs and unpredictable buyer demand,” Oduwole stated.

She stressed that this challenge reinforces Nigeria’s commitment to boosting non-oil exports by improving quality assurance, control mechanisms, and traceability systems to align with global standards—ultimately enhancing the global acceptance of Nigerian products.

Internet penetration is at 45.5%, and yet the digital economy is generating figures more astonishing than crude oil barrels rolling out of the Niger Delta. 

Data is no longer just an abstract term; it’s the 21st-century gold mine, and Nigeria might just be its richest untapped vein.

What if we told you that the black gold Nigeria has long relied upon is being overtaken by something invisible yet infinitely more valuable? In our world that thrives on connectivity and digital innovation, data is the “new oil” driving global economies. 

For Nigeria, this is an outstanding opportunity to pivot away from oil dependency and embrace data as a primary export commodity. But will Nigeria rise to the challenge or squander the moment?

The Global Rise of Data as a Commodity

Data now powers the engines of industries like artificial intelligence, e-commerce, and fintech, with the global data economy projected to hit $250 billion annually by 2025. 

Countries like India have capitalised on this trend, leveraging their tech systems to export services such as cloud solutions and analytics. 

Estonia’s e-governance model is another example of data’s prospects to enhance economies and attract investments.

This isn’t just theoretical. Nigeria already has homegrown tech success stories like Flutterwave, Andela, and Paystack, asserting the possibility of joining leaders globally. 

Nigeria has what it takes to shine in the international data trade, but the clock is ticking.

Nigeria’s Data Sector: The Sleeping Giant

Nigeria’s data sector is huge, rich, and full of potential:

• Internet Penetration: With 45% broadband penetration and a thriving digital economy, the foundation for growth exists but requires effective reinforcement.
• Social Media & E-commerce: Platforms like Instagram and Jumia are promoting social interactions and powering a $15 billion e-commerce industry (2024 estimate).
• Infrastructure Investment: Data centres like Rack Centre and MainOne are finally keeping Nigerian data on home soil, reducing reliance on foreign infrastructure.

However, there are challenges. From inadequate infrastructure to weak enforcement of the Nigeria Data Protection Regulation (NDPR), there’s a big need to turn potential into performance.

Economic Benefits of Data

If leveraged effectively, data could bolster Nigeria’s economy in the following ways:

1. Boosting GDP: Data monetisation could add billions to national revenue through analytics, artificial intelligence services, and cross-border data exchanges.
2. Job Creation: The emergence of a data economy could create high-paying roles in cybersecurity, data science, and software development.
3. Diversification: By reducing dependency on oil, Nigeria can achieve long-term economic stability and resilience.
4. Sectoral Innovations: From precision agriculture to health diagnostics, data can transform industries and improve livelihoods.

Importantly, Nigeria’s young, tech-savvy population bring a strong talent pool to ensure this process.

Challenges

As with any major changes, there are obstacles:

• Infrastructure Deficits: Limited broadband access, erratic electricity supply, and insufficient storage facilities hinder progress.
• Regulatory Gaps: Weak enforcement of data privacy laws discourages both foreign investment and local adoption.
• Global Competition: Competing with data giants like China and the US requires innovative strategies and huge investment.

For Nigeria to become competitive globally in 2025, a lot has to be done:

• Policy Support: Provide tax incentives for data-focused startups and establish public-private partnerships.
• Infrastructure Expansion: Invest in high-speed internet, renewable energy, and additional data centres.
• Workforce Development: Launch nationwide training in AI, data analytics, and cybersecurity to close the skills gap.
• Public Trust & Regulation: Strengthen the NDPR and ensure transparent cross-border data policies.

The numbers are commendable, with a trade surplus of ₦5.81 trillion and exports reaching ₦20.48 trillion in Q3 2024, the services sector is already driving GDP growth. Data could amplify these gains exponentially.

The question is no longer if Nigeria can become a data-driven economy but how quickly it can adapt to leverage this opportunity. The pieces are in place—lots of talent, increasing investments, and a growing hunger for digital services.

The choice is simple: innovate or stagnate. The clock is ticking, and the data economy waits for no one. Will Nigeria make data its most valuable export by 2025? 

The answer can be found in our ability to leverage, protect, and monetise the resources that are already driving our world.

She made the remark during a ministerial export consultation held in Lagos, where she applauded the top 100 exporters who had contributed to the growth of the economy.

Oduwole emphasised the importance of exports in driving economic growth, creating jobs and enhancing foreign exchange earnings and called for collaboration amongst the agencies and exporters to make the economy work.

She noted that the ministry’s support was not only for Nigerian exporters of goods and commodities, saying “we are also supporting Nigerian exporters of services, which is one of the lowest hanging fruits, for giving Nigerian youth the opportunity to earn foreign exchange while living in Nigeria by exporting their services.

She promised the exporters and agencies that all their valid points raised will be addressed, saying that “the President has given me the matching orders and together with colleagues, we are going to deliver this for the Nigerian economy.”

Also, permanent secretary, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, Nura Rimi said stakeholders’ consultation engagement is tailored towards strengthening Nigeria’s export sector.

“This gathering marks a significant step forward in the Ministry’s commitment to fostering inclusive engagement with stakeholders towards advancing Nigeria’s economic diversification agenda and our collective effort to enhance and expand our Nation’s export capacity.

“Consultation provides us with a platform to deliberate on the challenges and opportunities shaping Nigeria’s export landscape. We are here united by a shared commitment to improving the effectiveness and competitiveness of our export sector. As a nation, we recognize the critical role of exports in driving economic growth, creating jobs, enhancing foreign exchange earnings, and positioning Nigeria in the competitive global marketplace.”

He emphasised that “the Ministry remains steadfast in its mandate to create enabling policies and frameworks that enhance export competitiveness. Through the feedback and insights from this engagement, we aim to fine-tune interventions, tackle critical points such as market access, regulatory, bottlenecks, and infrastructural constraints, and ensure alignment with global best practices.”

On his part, the Comptroller-General of the Nigerian Customs Service (NCS), CGC Adeniyi Wale urged exporters to drive Nigeria’s economic growth.

Wale commended exporters for their contributions to the country’s economy and called for increased momentum in export growth. He noted that the Nigerian economy is moving in the right direction, with a slight increase in GDP from 3.9 to 4.2.

He attributed this growth to the efforts of exporters and pledged the support of the NCS in addressing challenges facing the export sector.

She made this statement during the official commissioning of the new NAFDAC office complex for the Murtala Muhammed International Airport/NAHCO in Lagos.

Adeyeye expressed her concern about the continuous rejection of Nigerian food exports in some European countries and the United States.

She emphasized the need for stronger collaboration between NAFDAC and other government agencies at the ports to address this issue. A visit to NAFDAC’s export warehouses within the international airport reveals the main reasons behind the rejections.

To tackle the challenge, Adeyeye highlighted NAFDAC’s efforts in working closely with port agencies to ensure that exported goods meet the regulatory requirements of the importing countries and destinations.

She acknowledged the importance of collaboration with the Nigeria Customs Service, stating that without their support, NAFDAC would face significant limitations in its operations.

Adeyeye emphasized that NAFDAC’s presence at the ports and land borders plays a crucial role in fulfilling the agency’s mandate of safeguarding public health.

She also acknowledged the collaborative efforts with other organizations such as the Nigeria Agricultural Quarantine Services and the police, which help ensure due diligence, investigation, and enforcement.

She emphasized the need for comprehensive collaboration among various agencies to address the rejection of Nigerian food exports, as it not only affects exporters but also has economic implications for the country

Importation of wheat, according to some estimates, is $4 billion per annum, having become the highest single imported commodity for Nigeria for over a decade.

Aside from wheat, Nigeria expects an unspecified amount of potassium from Russia, which is a byproduct of fertilizer production in Nigeria.

While Ukrainian wheat is currently on its way to Nigeria, talks between Russia and the Nigerian government about potassium imports are still ongoing, according to the Minister.

According to Mohammad Mahmood Abubakar, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, the ship carrying the wheat is expected to berth in Port Harcourt, from where it will be distributed across Nigeria and neighboring African countries.

He explained that Nigeria may become a hub for accessing wheat, especially with the strained relationship between Ukraine and Russia.

Last year August, he said Nigeria spent $6bn on the importation of wheat into the country between 2016 and 2020, a period of five years.

He stated that with the growing population and consumption rate of wheat and its products, Nigeria had no option but to boost its productivity to meet the country’s increasing demand.

Abubakar said, “The wheat industry has been of serious concern to the Federal Government. This is because the national requirement for wheat is 5.7 million metric tonnes annually, while our production is 420,000 metric tonnes.

“The Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Report 2020 shows that Nigeria imported $6bn worth of wheat from 2016 to 2020. This is worrisome and unsustainable for a crop that could be produced locally.”

Dr. Ernest Umakhihe, the Ministry’s Permanent Secretary, spoke on Dr. Abubakar’s behalf yesterday, January 24, at the beginning of cashew season and the celebration of Nigeria Cashew Day in Benin, the capital of Edo State. The theme of the event was “Industrializing the Nigerian Cashew Sector Through Inclusive Policies.”

“By the end of 2022, cashew nut exports from Nigeria generated over $250 million, or nearly 10% of the nation’s agricultural exports,” he stated.

2023 Cashew Export Prediction 

By 2023, cashew export is predicted to bring in $500 million for Nigerian farmers.

“I beg you to continue cooperating peacefully because this is the only way you can have a good influence on the long-term growth of the cashew industry and ensure that it helps this administration’s economic diversification program achieve its overarching objective.

Since the 1990s, cashew has gained more significance in Nigeria as an export-oriented cash crop. It has grown to be a significant non-oil export revenue source.

“Cashew has become a commercial crop in Nigeria. It is cultivated in 27 states, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

“In realization of the importance of cashew, the Federal Government, through the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, listed cashew as a priority crop to be promoted, under the Import Substitution Strategy of the present administration led by President Muhammadu Buhari.

“Out of the 250,000 metric tonnes of cashew nuts produced in Nigeria, only about 10 percent is processed, while Raw Cashew Nuts (RCN) are sold to cashew buying agents for export and cashew apple eaten raw, and the rest wasted, because of inadequate facilities to process other cashew derivatives, for example, cashew juice, jam, and ice cream, among others. This means exporting Nigerian jobs to other countries.”

The manufacturers’ request for the sector to receive the most support possible by enabling operators to access foreign exchange through a special window to be established by the Central Bank of Nigeria was being taken into consideration by the Federal Government.

Manufacturers expressed confidence that, if used, the effort will halt the practice of operators obtaining foreign exchange on the black market. The manufacturers said that other nations, such as South Africa, previously supported these measures as a way to promote industrial activity.

The Minister of Trade and Investment, Niyi Adebayo, said his ministry would initiate steps towards helping exporting manufacturers alleviate the impact of the current forex crisis.

Adebayo said: “MANEG is a formidable group. Write to me. I will see how I can use that as a reference to engaging the CBN. As you know, the CBN is a monster of its own.

“I like the idea that you came up with, having a different window for manufacturers. The president just set up an economic team, and we have been meeting. Write to me, and we will see what we can do.”

Nigerian government develops this policy to protect local industries against foreign competition by means of tariffs, subsidies, import quotas, or other restrictions on the imports of foreign competitors.

Since the inception of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration in 2015, protectionist policies have generated unintended outcomes, including high levels of tariff evasion accounting for the loss of $1.8 billion annually in public revenue. 

These protectionist policies have been central to the country’s limited success in diversifying the economy and furthering the growth of the manufacturing sector, the Washington-based global financial institution said.

The import restrictions are pushing millions of Nigerians into poverty as “distortionary trade policies can decrease overall purchasing power and, in turn, increase poverty.”

The World Bank advised that specific government policies may therefore be needed if the gains of trade liberalization are to be reaped in Nigeria.

In Nigeria, many policies limit trade; the country is not unique in this regard, as protectionist policies have been on the rise the world over and the ongoing war in Ukraine could intensify this.

Jonathan Lain and Jakob Engel, World Bank economists, said this in a recent blog post.

“Throughout the past two decades, import bans, tariffs, and foreign exchange restrictions have all curbed the flow of goods into Nigeria.

“These restrictive policies culminated in Nigeria closing its land border for more than a year in August 2019. Nigeria is also currently negotiating the terms of its participation in the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA); therefore, discussions of trade policy are very topical.