In a statement titled “Consolidating on Inflation Moderation in the Face of New Threats,” the Chamber reacted to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) February 2026 report, which saw headline inflation ease marginally to 15.06%, down from 15.10% in January.

While acknowledging the 11th consecutive month of decline as a positive signal, the LCCI warned that the current grip on inflation remains fragile.

Dr. Chinyere Almona, the director general of LCCI, said government should prioritise exchange-rate stability by improving foreign exchange liquidity and boosting non-oil export earnings.

Almona added: “Strengthening food security through improved agricultural productivity, addressing insecurity in farming communities, and investing in storage and logistics infrastructure will also help moderate food prices.

“Furthermore, accelerated reforms in the power and energy sectors are critical to lowering production costs for businesses. Reliable electricity supply and improved energy infrastructure would significantly reduce cost pressures across manufacturing, trade, and services.

“The LCCI also stresses the need for greater efficiency in transportation and trade infrastructure, including improvements to port operations, cargo evacuation systems, and digital trade processes, to reduce logistics costs that significantly contribute to consumer prices.”

The LCCI said sustaining the marginal decline in inflation would depend on consistent macroeconomic management, structural reforms, and policies that enhance domestic productivity.

It added: “Urgent actions are needed to assuage the fears in many quarters that price pressures will reverse the deceleration of our inflation rate.

“The month-on-month inflation rates since the start of this year already indicate a fragile grip on inflationary pressures. Supply-side interventions will be more realistic than price controls imposed on manufacturers and investors.”

The chamber said this marginal decline, alongside the significant drop from 26.27 per cent recorded in February 2025, reflected the gradual easing of inflationary pressures in the economy.

However, the chamber noted that underlying inflation risks remained significant as, “the month-on-month inflation rate rose to 2.01 per cent in February, after contracting in January, indicating that price pressures remain persistent.

“In addition, food prices remain the major driver of inflation, reflecting structural challenges in Nigeria’s food supply chain, high logistics costs, and production constraints.”

Almona said from the perspective of the organised private sector, the slight moderation in inflation offers cautious optimism for businesses and households, as high inflation has significantly eroded purchasing power, increased production costs, and weakened consumer demand across several sectors.

“Nevertheless, the chamber warns that several emerging domestic and global risks could reverse the deceleration gains we have recorded in recent months.

“Rising geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict in the Middle East could trigger volatility in global energy markets, potentially increasing fuel, transportation, and logistics costs.

“Nigeria has an opportunity to partially insulate itself from volatile oil prices in international markets by expanding local refining capacity and boosting crude supply to local refineries to meet local needs.

“With the risk of exchange-rate volatility amid disruptions to global supply chains, renewed pressure in the foreign exchange market could increase the cost of imported raw materials, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and food items, thereby pushing up production and consumer prices.

“In addition, insecurity in food-producing regions, Climate-related disruptions, and high transportation costs continue to threaten food supply and price stability,” Almona said.

According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this represents the lowest level since November 2020.

While the headline figure offers a glimmer of macroeconomic stability, a deeper dive into the data reveals emerging pressures in the food sector that could challenge this trajectory in the coming months.

The Paradox: Easing Headline vs. Spiking Food Prices

Despite the overall decline in headline inflation, food inflation rose to 12.12% in February, up from 8.89% in January.

The NBS attributed this surge to a renewed spike in the prices of staples like cassava, yams, beans, and crayfish.

Analysts point to two primary drivers for this monthly pressure:

1. Ramadan Demand: Early bulk-buying by households in preparation for the fasting period has exerted upward pressure on market prices.
2. Agricultural Seasonality: A reduction in farming activities during the current cycle has tightened the supply of key staples.

Energy and Currency: The Stabilizing Forces

The marginal ease in the headline rate was largely supported by a moderating core inflation basket.

Key factors included:

• Fuel Price Moderation: Energy costs saw a slight reprieve after the Dangote Refinery reduced its ex-depot PMS price by ₦25 per litre (to ₦774).
• Naira Appreciation: The Naira gained approximately 4.32% in the official window during February, averaging ₦1,355.34/$, which helped contain the cost of imported goods.

What This Means for the Economy

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation actually saw an upward movement to 2.01%, reversing the contraction seen in January (-2.88%).

This suggests that while the year-on-year base effect is keeping the headline figure low, real-time price pressures are intensifying.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) monitors these figures, the slight interest rate cut implemented earlier this year signals an expectation of continued moderation.

However, with food prices halting their months-long decline, the last mile of disinflation may prove more difficult than anticipated.