However, the pressure on household pockets is still high. Released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the numbers are less of a celebration and more of a statistical change driven by technical factors and temporary price adjustments.

This decline from April’s 23.71% rate should mean things are improving, but that’s incorrect. Food inflation, arguably the most felt by everyday Nigerians, slowed year-on-year to 21.14% in May. 

Nonetheless, food prices actually rose on a monthly basis, climbing 2.19% from April’s 2.06%. Consumers aren’t imagining it, groceries still cost more today than they did last month.

The cause of the apparent dip is a mix of statistical changes and short-term economic interventions. In January, Nigeria rebased its Consumer Price Index (CPI), updating the basket of goods and base year for the first time since 2009. 

This change, while technically sound, has introduced what some experts call a “measurement paradox”: inflation looks lower, but the average Nigerian is still struggling to cope with high prices.

“This new CPI rebasing has a base-year effect that makes year-on-year comparisons appear softer,” one analyst explained. “But when you walk into a market, the prices don’t lie.”

Exchange rate stability has also played a role. The naira gained slightly against the dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), helping lower the cost of imports. 

At the same time, costs of logistics fell slightly following a fair reduction in petrol prices. Dangote Refinery, for instance, dropped its PMS price from ₦835 to ₦825 per litre. These changes brought mild relief, but not enough to fundamentally change the inflation space.

The NBS noted that inflation pressures cooled across categories like clothing, utilities, and healthcare. Still, economists warn that any easing will be short-lived without structural reforms. 

Insecurity in major food-producing regions and early seasonal flooding in the Middle Belt continue to disrupt supply chains. These challenges, if left unchecked, could reverse the current profits and push inflation back up.

On a month-to-month basis, overall inflation stood at 1.53% in May, down from 1.86% in April. That shows a slower pace in rising prices, but it’s not yet the kind of drop that resets economic confidence.

Put simply, Nigeria’s inflation rate is easing, but for millions living paycheck to paycheck, the lived reality hasn’t changed. Bread, rice, and transport are still eating into monthly income, and unless underlying problems are fixed, May’s “progress” may prove hollow.

This surge is a blow to household incomes and the economy at large.

The NBS report reveals that food inflation, a major contributor to headline inflation, rose to 21.79% year-on-year in March 2025. 

This increase is attributed to high prices of staple food items like ginger, garri, and rice. Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, also climbed to 24.43% year-on-year.

A closer look at the data shows a noticeable divergence between urban and rural inflation rates. Urban inflation stood at 26.12% year-on-year, while rural inflation was 20.89%. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation rose by 3.96%, compared to 2.40% in February.

Experts in the field have said the March inflation reading resulted from opposing forces, including moderating and upward factors. 

Samuel Oyekanmi, head of Research at Norrenberger, noted that the constant effect of rebasing and favourable base effects are expected to exert a moderating influence.

However, he warns that the depreciation of the naira and increase in petrol prices could raise costs across transport and goods.

“The continued effect of rebasing and favourable base effects are expected to exert a moderating influence,” Oyekanmi said.

The surge in inflation could put more pressure on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to tighten monetary policy further. Analysts expect the CBN to introduce liquidity management measures to support the currency and contain inflation expectations.

The outlook for Nigeria’s inflation rate reveals potential upside risks from electricity tariff adjustments and geopolitical disruptions to global supply chains.

Meristem projects inflation to stay within the 20-24% band through mid-year, pointing to expected stability in energy prices and a slower pace of naira depreciation.