​In a statement over the weekend, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso revealed that this figure ma​rks a pivotal recovery for the nation’s external buffers, significantly surpassing the total gross reserves of $33.22 billion recorded at the end of 2023.

Analyzing the Growth Trajectory

The leap in net reserves represents a staggering 772.18% increase ($30.81 billion) from the precarious $3.99 billion recorded in 2023, and a 50.58% rise from the $23.11 billion seen in 2024.

​While Gross Reserves reflect the total foreign assets held, Net Reserves are considered a more critical metric for tech investors and macroeconomic analysts as they subtract near-term liabilities like FX swaps and forward contracts.

The fact that the net position now exceeds previous gross levels suggests a substantial cleaning of the apex bank’s balance sheet.

Key Performance Indicators (End-2025):

• Net FX Reserves: $34.80 billion (Up from $23.11bn in 2024)
• Gross FX Reserves: $45.71 billion (Up from $40.19bn in 2024)
• Current Status (Feb 2026): Gross reserves have further climbed to $50.45 billion as of February 16, 2026.

The Quality of Buffers

Governor Cardoso emphasized that the improvement is not just about the numbers but the quality of the buffers.

The growth reflects enhanced transparency in FX management and the sustained impact of policy reforms aimed at restoring market credibility.

“The improvement represents a substantial strengthening in both the level and quality of Nigeria’s external buffers over the past three years,” Cardoso stated, noting that these reserves reinforce the CBN’s capacity to support exchange rate stability and macroeconomic resilience.

For Nigeria’s burgeoning tech ecosystem and digital economy, this surge in net reserves is a strong signal of liquidity returning to the FX market.

A healthier reserve position reduces the volatility of the Naira, providing a more predictable environment for startups with dollar-denominated obligations, such as cloud infrastructure costs and international software licensing.

Furthermore, the 2026 trajectory (hitting the $50bn gross mark) suggests that the CBN’s orthodox monetary policy approach is gaining traction with foreign portfolio investors, potentially lowering the barrier for future venture capital inflows.

As the apex bank continues to focus on orderly market operations, the tech sector will be watching closely to see how this improved liquidity translates into smoother FX access for enterprise operations.

According to official market data published by FMDQ, the naira closed Thursday at N1,481.49/$1 against N1,488.60/$1 posted in the previous segment on Wednesday.

Thursday’s rate signifies a N7.11 or 0.48 per cent appreciation from N1,488.60 recorded on Wednesday.

Within the business period on Thursday, foreign exchange turnover increased by 3.84 per cent ($213.31 million) from $205.43 million recorded in the previous segment on Wednesday.

The domestic unit also experienced an intraday high of N1,401.00 and a low of N1,505.00 to a dollar before closing at N1,481.49/$1 at the authorised session of the FX market on Thursday.

A review of the official market currency data posted this week indicated that the naira has been trading at N1,400 and above the mark at the segment in the past week.

On Monday, market data posted shows that the naira closed at N1,476.12/$1. The currency depreciated further on Tuesday and Wednesday to trade N1,476.95 and N1,488.60 to a dollar, respectively.

Similarly, the local currency recorded a marginal gain at the parallel market on Thursday after the currency slipped slightly in the previous session on Wednesday.

According to the unofficial market data, the dollar was exchanged at N1,496.4 and above on Thursday, as against N1,498.4/$1 and above recorded on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the dollar exchanged at N1,477.9/$1, as against N1,487.4/$1 posted on Monday.

The continuous depreciation of the naira against the greenback currency in recent months came amidst a significant surge in demand for the dollar and market speculation.

The Fitch Ratings is a multinational credit rating agency. Investors use Fitch Ratings to help determine which investments are less likely to default and yield a good return.

Techeconomy has complied 14 reasons Fitch Ratings affirms Nigeria’s credit outlook positive:

1. Significant Reform

The positive outlook partly reflects reforms over the last year to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.

Exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks have been adjusted, fuel subsidies reduced, coordination between the ministry of finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) improved, central bank financing of the government scaled back and administrative efficiency measures are being taken to raise the currently low government revenue, as well as oil production.

2. Distortions Reduced

The reforms have reduced distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies, resulting in the return of sizeable inflows to the official foreign exchange (FX) market.

Nevertheless, we see significant short-term challenges, notably, inflation is high and the FX market has yet to stabilise and the durability of the commitment to reform is to be tested.

3. Exchange Rate Liberalisation

The CBN has stepped up efforts to reform the monetary and exchange rate framework following last year’s unification of the multiple exchange rate windows, and the large differential between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed.

Average daily FX turnover, at the official FX window has risen sharply from 2H23, and there has been clearance of USD4.5 billion of the backlog of unpaid FX forwards (the validity of the outstanding USD2.2 billion is being assessed by CBN), and weekly sales of FC to bureaux de changes (BDCs) have resumed (having been suspended since 2021).

4. Return of Sizeable Non-Resident Inflows

Greater formalisation of FX activity and monetary policy tightening has contributed to a significant rise in foreign portfolio investment inflows, and a fast appreciation of the naira at the official FX window, following the 71% post-liberalisation depreciation between June 2023 and mid-March 2024, although the exchange rate remains volatile.

However, Fitch views continued lack of clarity in the size of net FX reserves as a constraint on the sovereign’s credit profile.

5. Further Monetary Policy Tightening Expected

Fitch anticipates further increases in the CBN monetary policy rate in 2H24 (following the 600bp hike to 24.75% since February 2024 alongside tightening of reserve requirements) and strengthening of monetary policy transmission, after the recent resumption of open market operations at rates closely aligned to the MPR.

The company projected inflation, which rose to 33.2% yoy in March due partly to exchange rate pass-through and rising food prices, to average 26.3% in 2024 and 18.2% in 2025, still well above our projected ‘B’ median of 4.5%.

6. Fiscal Revenue Improves

Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen 0.3pp in 2024 to 4.5% of GDP (but 0.5pp lower than it projected at the last review.

This is due to improving non-oil revenue and partial fuel subsidy removal being offset by underperformance in oil profits from Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (despite a potential improvement in oil production) and higher payments for debt servicing, personnel and capex.

Fitch Ratings projected a 2pp rise in general government (GG) revenue/GDP from 2023 to 2025 to 9.6%, helped by increased mobilisation of non-oil tax revenue, to narrow the budget deficit to 4.1% in 2025.

Nevertheless, the GG revenue/GDP ratio would remain one of the lowest of Fitch-rated sovereigns.

The government has sharply reduced recourse to its CBN ‘Ways and Means’ overdraft this year, and banks’ healthy foreign currency (FC) liquidity and strong demand for government securities support domestic financing capacity.

7. Improved Oil Production, Challenges Remain

Fitch Ratings expects oil refining capacity to increase in 2024-2025 as the Dangote plant ramps up, with an eventual 0.65mbpd capacity.

This will reduce transportation costs and lower refined oil imports, which should ease FX demand.

“We anticipate an increase in crude oil production (including condensates) in 2024-2025, averaging 1.75 mbpd, from 1.58 mbpd in 2023, helped by improved onshore surveillance, but this is still well below the 2019 level, reflecting underinvestment in the sector and production outages”.

8. Rating Fundamentals

Nigeria’s rating is supported by its large economy, developed and liquid domestic debt market, and large oil and gas reserves.

“It is constrained by weak governance indicators relative to peers’, high hydrocarbon dependence, limited crude oil production capacity, weak net FX reserves, high inflation, ongoing security challenges, and structurally low, albeit improving, non-oil revenue”, the report reads.

9. Extremely High Interest Expenditure:

Fitch expects GG debt/GDP to rise 2.6pp in 2024 to 44.8% (‘B’ median 53.2%), partly owing to currency depreciation, with the bulk of financing in 2024 domestically sourced.

Domestic borrowing costs have risen due to higher policy rates, and GG interest/revenue is one of the highest of Fitch-rated sovereigns at 38.2% in 2023 (‘B’ median 11.6%).

Nigeria’s public debt has a fairly long average maturity of 12.3 years, and nearly 61% is local-currency denominated, well above the current ‘B’ median of 35.9%.

10. Moderate Gross FX Reserves

Gross FX reserves fell to USD32.2 billion at end-April, from a peak of USD34.4 billion in mid-March, partly reflecting repayment of existing debt obligations, and FX sales to BDCs to support the currency.

Fitch projects a broadly flat current account surplus, averaging 0.5% of GDP in 2024-2025, supported by a modest rise in oil production and remittances.

“We forecast FX reserves to fall to 4.2 months of current external payments at end-2024 (‘B’ median 4.2), from 4.4 months at end-2023”.

11. Weak Net FX Reserves

Uncertainty continues over the net FX reserve position, with a particular lack of clarity on near USD32 billion of “FX forwards, OTC futures, and currency swaps” recorded as an off-balance sheet “commitment” in CBN’s last consolidated financial statement for 2022.

Fitch estimates around 30% of Nigeria’s reserves are made up of FX bank swaps, although we expect most of these to continue to be rolled over.

12. External Debt Service Rises in 2025

Government external debt service is moderate, expected at USD4.8 billion in 2024 and USD5.2 billion in 2025 (with USD2.9 billion of amortisations, including a USD1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November).

The government plans to meet its external financing obligations through a combination of multilateral lending, syndicated loans, and potentially from commercial borrowing 0

13. Banking Sector Resilience

The banking sector has been resilient to the impact of the sharp devaluation on the capital adequacy ratio (end-11M23: 12.3%) given balance sheet structures, including net long FC positions, which delivered large FX revaluation gains in 2023 and 1Q24.

While we expect the non-performing loan ratio (end-3Q23: 4.2%) to rise in 2024, loan books are small (end-2023: 35% of banking sector assets) and overall asset quality remains closely aligned with sovereign creditworthiness, given high fixed-income securities and cash reserves at the CBN.

Fitch anticipates a marked increase in equity issuance and M&A in the next two years, to comply with a significant increase in paid-in capital requirements.

14. ESG – Governance

Nigeria has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of ‘5’ for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.

“These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model (SRM).

Nigeria has a low WBGI ranking at the 17th percentile, reflecting weak institutional capacity, uneven application of the rule of law and a high level of corruption”, the company said.

It also vowed to continue its campaign against racketeers, urging Nigerians to expect a stronger naira that would reflect in a significant drop in the prices of essential commodities by the first quarter of 2025.

Ajuri Ngelale, the special adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, said this, against the backdrop of the recent series of measures rolled out by the central bank to halt the naira free fall and return the local currency to its fair value.

The CBN had rolled out several circulars and directives, leading to the rebound of the local currency from 1,900/dollar recorded in late February to nearly 1,200/dollar on Tuesday at the parallel market.

The naira, which had fallen against the greenback to over N1,500/dollar at the official market, rose to about 1,230/dollar on Monday.

According to analysts, the CBN recent policies have played a pivotal role in the strengthening of the naira against the dollar.

Key highlights of the reforms encompass the unification of exchange rate windows, liberalisation of the FX market, clearance of FX backlog obligations for banks and airlines, implementation of a Price Verification System, imposition of limits on banks’ Net Open Position, removal of the daily cap of N2bn on remunerable Standing Deposit Facility, and overhaul of the Bureau De Change segment.

A number of reforms in the FX market have adversely affected racketeers and currency speculators in the FX market and banking sector.

However, the Presidency on Tuesday vowed to sustain the momentum, saying regulatory agencies would go after racketeers and “malign actors” bent on frustrating the efforts of the government.

Beyond stabilizing the exchange rate, the President also pledged to tackle inflation and bring it to a considerable rate.

Ajuri Ngelale, said President Tinubu “has been very consistent in his view that the labour pains felt by our people and the incredible sacrifices made by our people over the past 10 months would be rewarded across the board.”

Therefore, “The President’s multi-faceted approach to ridding the nation’s foreign exchange market of malign actors and sharp practices have provided a platform for the sustainable strengthening of our national currency against all global currencies and this is what we are seeing,” he said.

“But there is still much work to be done and this is not a time for celebration. It is a time for doubling down and working harder to ensure that inflation is sustainably brought down in short order and that consumer protecting regulatory agencies step up enforcement to ensure that our people are not short-changed by enterprises that fail to reflect the prevailing exchange rates on the pricing of goods and services across the board,” he added.

The Presidency also expressed confidence that the expected resumption of operations by private and government-owned crude oil refineries would boost revenue for the country and better the economy.

This is a reduction of N124.12 from the previous figure.

The new figure reflects the prevailing exchange rate on the CBN’s official window.  The exchange rate for import duties payment on the customs portal has been on a steady decline in the past two weeks mirroring the strengthening of the naira in the FX market.

The exchange rate for cargo clearance peaked at N1,624.7/$1 on March 12, 2024, before the gradual decline to the current figure.

The Nigeria Customs had earlier stated that the exchange rate for cargo clearance would follow the CBN’s official rate.

The apex bank on the other hand had addressed the frequent changes on the customs exchange rate and the attendant confusion stating that the exchange rate on the date of opening the ‘Form M’ will be used for import duties assessment.

The CBN in recent times has instituted a motley of reforms aimed at stabilizing the forex market, dispelling speculations, eradicating distortions, and strengthening the value of the naira.

The near parity between the official and parallel market exchange rates signifies the successful implementation of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) foreign exchange market reforms in recent times.

This week, the Central Bank will hold its second monthly Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in 2024 where it would decide to either hold MPR or increase it as part of measures to strengthen the naira and reduce inflation rate across the country.

In its last MPC meeting, the apex bank increased MPR by 400 basis points from 18.75% to 22.75% last month.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed that between 201O and 2020, foreign education expenses amounted to a substantial $28.65bn, as per the CBN’s publicly available Balance of Payments Statistics.

Similarly, medical treatment abroad incurred around $11.01bn in costs during the same period. Within the same period, Personal Travel Allowances accounted for a total of $58.7bn.

Cumulatively, Nigerians spent about $98bn on foreign trips, medical tourism, and overseas education, a figure the CBN governor said was more than the total foreign exchange reserves of the central bank.

Cardoso disclosed these while addressing the House of Representatives on Tuesday when responding to an inquiry by the lawmakers on the factors behind the rapid depreciation of the naira in the last few weeks.

He spoke against the backdrop of the central bank’s battle to stabilize the exchange rate amid the dollar shortage.

The lawmakers had invited Cardoso and other economic managers following last week’s plunge of the naira from about 900/dollar to over 1,400/dollar at the official market.

Members of the organized private sector and Nigerians have raised concerns over development, saying it would lead to more hardships and job losses.

However, speaking with the lawmakers, Cardoso argued that the foreign exchange market was facing increased demand pressures, causing a continuous decline in the value of the naira.

According to him, factors contributing to this situation include speculative forex demand, inadequate forex due to low remittance of crude oil earnings to the CBN, increased capital outflows, and excess liquidity from fiscal activities.

To address exchange rate volatility, he said a comprehensive strategy had been initiated to enhance liquidity in the FX markets.

This includes unifying FX market segments, clearing outstanding FX obligations, introducing new operational mechanisms for Bureau De Change operators, enforcing the Net Open Position limit for commercial banks, and adjusting the remunerable Standing Deposit Facility cap.

Further compounding the situation, according to Cardoso, has been the consistent decline in Nigeria’s export earnings against the backdrop of increasing imports.

Contextualizing the problem, Cardoso pointed out that Nigeria’s annual imports, which require dollars for payment, amounted to $16.65bn in 1980.

By 2014, the annual imports had significantly surged to $67.05bn, although it gradually decreased to $54.71bn as of last year.

Similarly, food imports escalated from $2.63bn in 1980 to $14.84bn in 2019.

Cardoso said, “In 1980, our import expenditure stood at $16.65bn, while our exports amounted to $25.97bn, resulting in a surplus of $9.32bn.  Thus, during that year, we managed to fulfil the demand for dollars from our existing supply and still had over $9bn in surplus. In such a situation, the exchange rate (the value of the US Dollar) would not increase because, similar to any commodity, its supply surpassed its demand.”

Also contributing to the free fall of the naira, per the apex bank, has been a significant decline in Nigeria’s oil revenues.

“Moreover, from 2003 to 2013, we experienced a surplus of $331.73bn in the economy, with oil exports alone contributing over $798bn.  This surplus of dollars would typically stabilize the exchange rate, leading to a “strong” naira.

“Regrettably, over the past 12 years, oil exports, constituting over 90 percent of our foreign exchange earnings, have declined from $93.89bn in 2011 to US$31.4bn in 2020,” Cardoso added while noting that monetary policy actions were sometimes inhibited by transmission lags.

“It also seems that the task of stabilizing the exchange rate, while an official mandate of the CBN, would necessitate efforts beyond the bank itself and indeed to an attitudinal change of all our citizens,” he added.

Cardoso expressed optimism that the policy measures implemented by the apex bank would permeate the economy in the short to medium term.

“Inflation pressures may persist, albeit temporarily, but are expected to moderate significantly by Q4 2024. Exchange rate pressures are also expected to reduce with the smooth functioning of the foreign exchange market,” he said.

According to the CBN governor, one of the primary reasons the naira has continued to take a beating on the international stage has been Nigerians’ appetite for all things foreign.

For example, a new report by the Washington-based Institute of International Education showed that the number of Nigerians studying in the United States surged to the highest in at least 23 years despite an acute shortage of foreign exchange in the country.

According to the report, the number of Nigerian students at US colleges and universities grew by 22.2 percent to 17,640 in the 2022/23 academic year from 14,438 in the previous year.

A further analysis of the report revealed that the number of Nigerians grew at a faster pace compared to last year which rose by 12.3 percent.

This year’s increase for the country is also the fifth highest out of the top 25 international students in the US.

According to UNESCO’s Institute of Statistics, the number of Nigerian students abroad increased from less than 15,000 in 1998 to over 71,000 in 2015. By 2018, the figure had reached 96,702 students, as per the World Bank.

Another report projects the number of Nigerian students studying abroad to exceed 100,000 by 2022. Additionally, the UK’s Higher Education Statistic Agency noted a 64 percent increase in Nigerian students studying in the country.

In the same vein, a study by the Independent Research Centre Trust stated that Nigerians spend at least $1.5bn on medical tourism annually.

Prof. Jamilu Ismail, the head of the Centre, while speaking on the matter said there was an urgent need to tackle the twin menace of medical tourism and brain-drain in Nigeria’s health sector.

Jamilu said, “Currently, medical tourism is a big business and Nigeria is losing a lot to medical tourism. Some studies have shown that Nigerians spend between $1.5bn to $2bn annually on medical tourism, especially for heart diseases, kidney diseases, cancer, and other diseases as well.

“So, because of that, we have challenges in our hospital settings, maybe due to lack of equipment, and currently we are also having an issue where a lot of our specialists and doctors are leaving the country. Because of that, we felt it an opportunity that if we can provide these services we can curtail that medical tourism.”

According to recent data from CBN’s Balance of Payment compilation spanning the first six months of 2023, Nigerians spent $245.68m on overseas health-related issues, $896.09m on foreign education, and $434.63m on other personal foreign needs.

The apex bank, in an explanatory note titled, Note D, defined Balance of Payments as “a systematic record of economic and financial transactions for a given period between residents of an economy and non-residents.”

A report, on Saturday, had claimed that the apex bank is considering a policy that will result in the conversion of foreign currencies in domiciliary accounts of citizens to Naira, to stabilize increase liquidity in the FX market.

According to the report, a source had said the government will order the conversion of foreign currencies sitting idly in individuals’ and corporate organisations’ domiciliary accounts to naira — at a rate to be determined by the CBN.

However, the apex bank, in a post on its official X handle on Saturday, debunked the report, describing it as fake news.

“No plans to convert $30bn domiciliary deposits to naira. This news is fake!” CBN said.

There have been speculations that dollars denominated deposits of individuals may be at risk following recent moves by the CBN to restore normalcy in the foreign exchange (FX) market.

On January 31, 2024, the CBN directed banks to sell dollars to prevent losses.

The CBN had said the net open position (NOP) limit of the overall foreign currency assets and liabilities of banks should not exceed “20% short or 0% long of shareholders’ funds”.

The apex bank said the move was due to concerns over the growth in foreign currency exposures of banks through their NOPs.

The regulatory body also removed the allowable limit of exchange rate quoted by the international money transfer operators (IMTOs).

The Central Bank directed IMTOs to use prevailing market rates in Nigeria’s FX market.

Following the announcement of the policies, the naira, on February 2, 2024, appreciated at the official section of the FX market, closing at N1,435 per dollar.

The drop represents a depreciation of NGNGN6 or 0.7 percent compared to the NGN865/$ it traded last week.

According to TheCable, Bureaux De Change (BDC) operators in Victoria Island area of Lagos quoted the buying rate of the greenback at NGN865 and the selling price at N871 per dollar, leaving a N6 profit margin.

Aliyu, a currency trader in the Agbara area of Ogun state, said that buying and selling prices stood at N865/$ and NGN870/$, respectively.

He said there was still high demand for the greenback in the street market.

At the investors and exporters (I&E) forex window, the local currency appreciated by 2.43 percent to close at NGN756.94/$ on Monday, according to details on FMDQ Securities Exchange — a platform where FX is officially traded.

The currency has closed at NGN775.76 to a dollar on Friday.