That is not an exaggeration, because when you look around, you see this driving every financial decision in the country today. 

People are earning, but many are not feeling it. When salaries come, they dissolve almost immediately into transport, food, rent, and a long list of unavoidable expenses. 

In this situation, investing is no longer a light conversation, you need it to survive, it is a strategy dressed as financial planning.

So we are past the point of asking whether to invest. The focus now is on where capital still works in an economy like this, and why.

The Investment Climate: Why Everything Seems Different Now

I think it is important to start with the environment before talking about opportunities. Nigeria is not operating in a “normal” market cycle but adjusting to a high-cost economy where money behaves differently.

Interest rates are elevated compared to recent years, and that alone has changed investor behaviour. Fixed-income instruments have become attractive again, not because they are exciting, but because they finally pay something meaningful.

At the same time, inflation is affecting daily lives more than any headline indicator. Food prices, transport fares, and basic goods are still absorbing a large share of income. 

Even when prices stabilise for a short period, people don’t feel relief immediately. Purchasing power does not recover quickly, it erodes slowly and then suddenly seems to be gone.

Then there is the currency. The naira has gone through repeated adjustments and market pressures that have made planning difficult for households and businesses alike. 

This has created a split reality for investors, naira-based returns versus dollar-linked thinking. And yes, both are important.

Put simply, we are in an economy where preservation of value is just as important as growth.

The Investment Opportunities in 2026

Tier 1: Capital Preservation in a High-Rate Economy

There is a shift happening among informed investors, with many no longer placing high returns first, instead, they are trying to stop losses before anything else.

1. Government securities and fixed income

Treasury bills and federal government bonds have become core again. They offer predictable returns in a period where unpredictability is everywhere else.

For conservative investors, this is not about profit maximisation, the focus is stability. It is a place to park funds while still earning something that competes with inflation pressure.

2. Money market funds

Money market funds have also gotten attention, especially among salaried workers and small businesses. They provide liquidity with relatively stable yields and this is important in a volatile environment.

What is interesting here is not just the returns, but the behaviour change. People who once ignored these instruments are now actively using them as a default holding position for cash.

3. Fixed deposits

Fixed deposits still exist in the conversation, but their role has changed, and in many cases, they are now about discipline, not just return. The comparison is not against traditional savings accounts, but against inflation itself.

If your money is not growing faster than prices, it is effectively shrinking.

Tier 2: Income-Generating Assets That Still Work

This is where things become more dynamic. Income generation is now the focus for a large segment of investors.

4. Dividend-paying equities

The Nigerian stock market rewards select sectors, particularly banking and telecommunications. These are not speculative plays in this context, they are cash-flow businesses operating in a high-interest environment.

Banks, for example, usually benefit from elevated interest rates, which can boost earnings in certain conditions. Telecoms are relatively defensive because demand for data and connectivity does not disappear during economic stress.

However, this is not a uniform situation, because stock selection is more important than ever and the gap between strong performers and weak ones is wide.

5. Real estate: income versus expectation

Real estate in Nigeria has always carried emotional weight. People trust it but the reality today is more complex.

Rental income has become the more reliable angle compared to pure capital appreciation. In urban centres, demand for housing is still strong, but affordability is where the headache comes in. That stress drives both opportunity and frustration.

There is also a transition towards peri-urban development, areas slightly outside major city centres where land is still accessible and demand is gradually increasing.

Real estate has gone beyond owning property to understanding location timing.

6. Agriculture and food systems

Agriculture is one of the most structurally important investment areas in Nigeria. But it has gone beyond farming. The value is now in the entire chain, from processing, storage, logistics, to distribution.

Now, when it comes to food inflation, it is not just a consumer issue but also a signal of demand imbalance. Where inefficiency exists, opportunity usually follows.

Tier 3: High-Growth, High-Risk Opportunities

In the year 2026, the investment opportunities in this section attract attention, but also require cautiousness.

7. Fintech and digital finance

Financial technology expands continuously because it is directly on top of real problems, such as payments, access, and informal financial systems. Even with increased regulation and competition, innovation is far from saturated.

The opportunity here is in infrastructure that supports financial access, not just in new platforms.

8. Tech-enabled services and remote work

One of the silent shifts in Nigeria’s economy is the growing reliance on global income streams. Remote work, freelance services, and digital exports are now part of household income strategies.

Earning in foreign currency is attractive, yes, but it is becoming a hedge.

9. Import substitution businesses

There is also an opportunity in replacing imports. With costs increasing and currency pressures persisting, locally produced alternatives become more competitive.

This is happening in packaging, consumer goods, and basic manufacturing inputs. Where imports become expensive, local production becomes relevant.

10. Dollar-Linked Opportunities: The Noiseless Priority

This is perhaps the most important section for understanding modern Nigerian investment behaviour.

More investors are thinking in dual currency terms not because they want to abandon the naira, but because they want protection.

Export-oriented businesses are growing, and so are services that generate foreign income. Even diaspora-linked financial flows influence fintech growth.

There is a simple logic here, which is that if your income is entirely tied to one currency, your risk is also tied to it.

Where Smart Money Is Moving

Rather than just listing industries, it is more useful to observe direction.

Banking is essential, largely due to the interest rate environment, energy-related sectors evolve alongside global oil and transition discussions, while telecommunications are structurally strong because consumption patterns are stable even under pressure.

Logistics and distribution are expanding as supply chain expenses change how goods move across the country.

These are responses to how the economy is actually functioning.

Risks That Cannot Be Ignored

Any serious investment discussion in Nigeria must include risk, but it should not just be as a warning at the end, it should be part of the decision process.

Currency volatility is a structural factor as we see inflation still affecting returns. Liquidity challenges can appear unexpectedly, especially in property and private markets.

There is also the issue of unregulated investment schemes targeting retail investors during periods of economic stress. This is where caution becomes more important than ambition.

Returns mean very little if capital is lost.

How Investors Are Thinking Now

One of the most obvious changes I have observed is not in what people invest in, but how they allocate.

A more balanced approach is here:

• Conservative investors lean heavily on fixed income and money market instruments.
• Balanced investors mix equities, real estate, and cash-like instruments.
• Aggressive investors include foreign currency exposure, tech, and alternative assets.

There is no perfect formula but there is a common theme, which is diversification now a necessity.

Nigeria today is not a market where one decision guarantees stability. It is a market where structure is more essential than prediction.

The most important focus is protecting purchasing power while still participating in growth.

In simple terms, the goal has gone beyond just growing money. It is to make sure money does not silently lose meaning while sitting still.

That is the actual investment opportunities this year, 2026.

Quarter one results released by the three companies show a split in performance. Unilever strengthened margins and maintained strong cost control, Nestlé stayed profitable while working through finance and leverage pressure, while Cadbury faced the toughest squeeze on earnings despite growing sales.

Investors have piled into the three stocks since last year. Even with issues around inflation, weak consumer spending and higher operating costs, the companies are still among the strongest gainers on the NGX consumer goods index.

As of May 22, 2026, Cadbury’s share price had risen 15.2% this year to N69 from N59.90 at the start of January, after returning 179% in 2025. 

Unilever gained 133% year-to-date, climbing from N72 to N168 following a 124% rally last year, while Nestlé advanced 59.6% to N3,125 from N1,958 after returning 119% in 2025.

Despite the sharp rallies, technical indicators still reveal investors do not see the stocks as heavily overstretched. Nestlé’s 14-day Relative Strength Index stood at 32.43, Cadbury closed at 51.18, while Unilever came in higher at 66.02.

Together, the three companies generated N425.13 billion in revenue during the first quarter, up 12.15% from the same period last year. Gross profit also rose 12.5% to N169.56 billion, leaving combined gross margin almost unchanged at 39.88%.

Pressure became more visible lower down the income statement.

Combined operating profit slipped slightly to N91.64 billion because selling, marketing, distribution and administrative expenses rose faster than revenue growth. Operating margin fell to 21.55% from 24.30% a year earlier.

Still, lower finance costs helped soften the impact. Combined pre-tax profit climbed 31.14% to N92.39 billion, while post-tax profit rose 19.05% to N49.66 billion.

Even with the increase, the companies retained less than N12 in profit from every N100 in revenue.

Cadbury recorded the weakest margin performance among the three firms.

The company grew revenue by 7% to N39.83 billion in the first quarter, but the cost of sales rose faster at 15.43%, pushing gross profit down 10.39% to N10.89 billion. Gross margin dropped to 27.34% from 32.65%.

Operating expenses also jumped sharply to N5.88 billion from N2.86 billion. That dragged operating profit down by more than half to N4.72 billion, while operating margin weakened to 11.85% from 26.02%.

Cadbury’s finance position improved during the quarter. The company reported an unrealised foreign exchange gain of N870.60 million compared with N75.89 million in the same period last year, while interest expense on borrowings dropped to N370.63 million from N1.12 billion.

That helped the company move from a net finance cost position in Q1 2025 to a net finance income of N477.92 million this year. Even so, profit after tax still declined 39% to N3.64 billion.

The weaker margins also affected earnings per share, which fell to 160 kobo from 262 kobo a year earlier.

Still, Cadbury’s balance sheet showed some improvement. Shareholders’ equity rose 27% to N17.06 billion. However, cash reserves weakened significantly as net cash declined to N8.76 billion from N15.02 billion at the start of the year, largely due to inventory build-up and loan repayments.

Nestlé was the biggest revenue and profit generator among the three companies.

The food company grew first-quarter revenue by 10.59% to N326.13 billion, while profit after tax increased 29.23% to N39 billion.

Gross margin stayed broadly flat at 40.49%, but operating costs continued to rise. Operating expenses increased to N56.84 billion from N45.86 billion, reducing the operating margin to 23.13% from 25.14%.

Finance costs, however, eased considerably and supported profit growth.

The latest result also marked Nestlé’s sixth consecutive profitable quarter since returning to profit in late 2024. The company linked the recovery to naira stability and improved margin management.

Its balance sheet also improved during the quarter. Shareholders’ equity rose sharply to N51.6 billion in March 2026 from N12.9 billion at the end of December 2025.

Even with the recovery, investors are still watching whether the company can sustain profitability, reduce leverage and return to regular dividend payments. Nestlé last paid dividends in 2022.

Unilever delivered the strongest operational performance of the three companies.

Revenue rose 25.96% to N59.17 billion, while the cost of sales increased at a slower pace of 15.77%. That lifted gross profit by 41.17% to N26.61 billion.

Gross margin improved to 44.98 per cent from 40.13%, while operating profit climbed 38.88% to N11.48 billion. Operating margin also strengthened to 19.41% from 17.60%.

Unlike Cadbury and Nestlé, Unilever’s earnings growth came largely from stronger operations and higher cost management rather than relief from finance costs.

The company also maintained the healthiest balance sheet among the three firms. It closed the quarter with positive working capital of N93.36 billion, a current ratio of 2.34 times and a debt-to-equity of just 0.02 times.

Unilever is also still ahead on shareholder returns; the company paid N3.75 per share in dividends in 2025, while Cadbury and Nestlé have not declared dividends since 2022.

Unilever appears to be benefiting from stronger operations, healthier liquidity and lower debt exposure. Nestlé’s recovery is gaining ground, although leverage and dividend consistency are still issues to be dealt with. Cadbury, meanwhile, is still growing sales but faces challenges from growing costs and weaker liquidity.

While 79% of respondents actively try to save, nearly one-fifth (19%) say they cannot save at all due to low or unstable income.

The survey, conducted in May 2025 by UK-based research firm Column, focused on digitally engaged youth, an essential demographic for Nigeria’s economic growth.

The findings highlight how inflation, high living costs, and fragmented financial tools are making it harder for young Nigerians to save money effectively.

Key findings include:

1. Survival-Driven Spending: Essentials dominate budgets, with 72% prioritizing food, 46% airtime/data, and 37% transport. Only 9% list non-essential subscriptions.
2. Saving Struggles: 53% save primarily for emergencies, but 35% save less than 10% of income. Volatile prices and irregular cash flow disrupt planning.
3. Digital Tools Underutilized: Though 97% use financial apps (led by Opay at 64%), only 5% leverage budgeting apps. Manual methods (notes, memory) remain widespread.
4. Demand for Automation: 66% want tools to automate savings, while 75% seek a unified dashboard to track all finances—highlighting frustration with disconnected systems.

Sector-Specific Challenges and Opportunities

The report urges action across industries:

• Banks: Must evolve beyond “storage lockers” by offering automated savings, open banking integrations, and user-friendly dashboards.
• Fintechs: Should simplify budgeting and expense tracking, prioritizing low-data, mobile-first designs.
• Policymakers: Need to accelerate open banking adoption and address inflation (24% in early 2025) to restore trust in financial planning.
• Telcos: With 46% of youth spending heavily on airtime/data, bundling connectivity with micro-savings or rewards could ease financial strain.
• Retailers: Can build loyalty via value bundles (e.g., food + airtime) and tools linking purchases to savings goals.

The Path Forward

“The data shows young Nigerians are eager to save and take control of their finances but lack tools that match their realities,” notes Dr. Mo Shehu, lead researcher. “Solutions must be mobile-native, automated, and built for uncertainty—not just optimization.”

But 2025 has set a new record. This year, rams were priced as high as ₦750,000 to ₦1 million in many parts of Nigeria. What was once a religious and cultural celebration has turned into a financial burden for millions and its not just high prices we are dealing with, but the full impact of economic instability on daily life.

The Rise and Rise of Ram Prices

In just two years, the price of a mid-sized ram has jumped by over 400%, with Traders blaming insecurity in livestock-producing regions, higher costs of transport and feed prices.

On a broader scale, we see the naira has lost huge value, insecurity in Northern states like Zamfara and Katsina has disrupted supply chains, the cost of diesel and petrol has made moving goods across states nearly unaffordable, livestock traders are also dealing with new levies and multiple taxes across state borders. 

These factors combined have pushed livestock prices to levels that most Nigerians simply cannot afford.

Cutting Back on Celebrations

Many families have adjusted, some bought chickens or goats, others did nothing at all. For the first time in decades, Sallah passed in several households without the smell of grilled ram or the sound of children knocking on neighbours’ doors for meat.

Beyond food, this shows a growing economic divide. Those who can afford to celebrate still do, but those who can’t are finding ways to keep the spirit of the holiday alive, even if it means stepping away from long-held customs.

Effects on Traders and Retailers

The effects are being felt in the markets. Retailers reported slower sales in the weeks leading up to Sallah. Some deliberately reduced their stock, unsure of whether people would actually buy. 

Traders dealing in fabric, perfumes, shoes, and non-essential goods say the usual Sallah rush never came, the demand wasn’t there.

For many, income is stagnant or shrinking, salaries don’t match rising costs, and purchasing power is falling. Traders are adapting by reducing inventory, slashing profit margins, or offering instalment payments, moves that weren’t common even a year ago.

Digital Payments: A Useful but Limited Tool

The fee waivers and cashback promotions already offered by several digital payment platforms, including Opay, Kuda and PalmPay, helped this period. Users utilised these platforms mode to reduce friction at checkout points, encouraging users to send money to family members or pay merchants without needing physical cash or being scared of network failure.

However, the larger issue was that people didn’t have enough money. Technology can make transactions easier, but it doesn’t address the root causes of poverty or inflation. Many fintech platforms are also dealing with increased costs of operations, and we can’t tell how long these discounts can be sustained.

What about Logistics?

For businesses that rely on logistics, this Sallah was a test, with high petrol prices and deteriorating road conditions, delivery companies had to rethink their operations. 

Some cut back on service hours, others switched to using public transport systems for short-range deliveries, particularly within city centres like Lagos and Abuja.

Riders, who typically earn based on completed trips, saw a decline in volume. To retain them, some companies introduced bonuses, free maintenance support, or performance-based fuel subsidies. 

These measures helped, but only in the short term. The bigger challenge of how to deliver effectively in an environment where fuel prices are explosive and consumer demand is unsteady.

The Search for Alternatives

A few logistics companies like Max.ng and Bolt are now experimenting with electric and battery-powered vehicles, aiming to reduce dependency on fuel and stabilise costs of operations, but the transition is slow. 

Charging infrastructure is limited, and the upfront cost of electric vehicles is still high for small businesses.

Nonetheless, there’s thriving interest. If the current fuel pricing structure keeps up, we may see higher adoption of electric vehicles in Nigeria’s logistics space in the next two to three years.

What We’ve Learned from Sallah 2025

This year’s Sallah has shown us how quickly economic conditions can change long-standing cultural patterns. We’ve been forced to adapt under pressure, overlooking the rams for celebrations. 

The middle class, which once anchored consumer spending during festive periods, is being squeezed from both ends. Small businesses are struggling with falling demand and while digital platforms provide short-term ease, they don’t solve long-term affordability issues.

More than anything, Sallah 2025 reveals that the gap between tradition and reality is getting wider. And unless there is serious policy intervention, particularly around food supply, transport costs, and job creation, subsequent celebrations may become even more subdued.

Can We Still Afford to Celebrate?

Festivities used to be a time for joy and unity. Now, they remind us of what many can no longer afford. The government needs to take a serious look at the high cost of living and its long-term impact on social cohesion. 

Businesses, too, must prepare for a phase where consumer spending is lower, more cautious, and more selective.

Reflecting on this year’s Sallah has left me looking beyond if we could afford rams, can we afford to continue as we are?

This was according to the September 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation in Nigeria Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

The CPI, which measures the changes in the prices of goods and services, rose from 25.80% in August 2023 with an increase of 0.92% points.

“In September 2023, the headline inflation rate increased to 26.72% relative to the August 2023 headline inflation rate which was 25.80%,” the report partly read.

“Looking at the movement, the September 2023 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.92% points when compared to the August 2023 headline inflation rate.

“On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 5.94% points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022, which was 20.77%.”

Furthermore, the report said the food inflation rate in September 2023 was 30.64% on a year-on-year basis, which was 7.30% points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022 (23.34%).

“The rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of oil and fat, bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fish, fruit, meat, vegetables and milk, cheese, and eggs.

On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in September 2023 was 2.45%, this was 1.41% lower compared to the rate recorded in August 2023 (3.87%). The decline in food inflation on a month-on-month basis was caused by a fall in the rate of increase in the average prices of potatoes, yam and other tubers, bread and cereals, fruits, and fish,” the report added.

This means a 1.82% month-on-month hike, according to the (CPI) report for July 2022 released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

“On a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in July 2022 was 1.817 %, which was 0.001% higher than the rate recorded in June 2022 (1.816 %),” the NBS added.

“The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months period ending July 2022 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 16.75%, showing a 0.46% increase compared to 16.30% recorded in July 2021.”

According to the NBS report, the country’s urban inflation increased by 2.08% to 20.09% in July 2022 from 18.01% in July 2021. On the other hand, the rural inflation rate reached 19.22% from 16.75% in the corresponding period of 2021.

“On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in July was 2.04%, this was a 0.01% insignificant decline compared to the rate recorded in June 2022 (2.05%),” the agency equally noted in its latest report.

“This decline is attributed to a reduction in the prices of some food items like Tubers, Maize, Garri, and Vegetables.

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve-month period ending July 2022 over the previous twelve-month average was 18.75%, which was a 1.42% points decline from the average annual rate of change recorded in July 2021 (20.16%).”

On inflation rates across states in the country, the report added: “In July 2022, all items’ inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Akwa Ibom (22.88%), Ebonyi (22.51%), Kogi (22.08%), while Jigawa (16.62%), Kaduna (17.04%) and Borno (18.04%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year-on-Year inflation.

“However, on a month-on-month basis, July 2022 recorded the highest increases in Adamawa (2.87%), Abuja (2.84%), Oyo (2.77%), while Bauchi (0.82%), Kano (0.83%) and Niger (1.03%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.”

[Source: Channels]