The report was presented on Monday, January 19, 2026, during a live press conference in Brussels, Belgium.

The briefing was led by Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas, director of the IMF Research Department; Petya Koeva-Brooks, deputy director; and Deniz Igan, division chief, with moderation by Jose Luiz de Haro, Communications Officer

Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces

According to the IMF, global economic growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.3% in 2026 and at 3.2% in 2027, largely in line with the estimated 3.3% outcome in 2025.

The forecast represents a slight upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with the October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO).

The IMF noted that the stable outlook results from the balancing of opposing forces.

Headwinds from shifting trade policies are being offset by strong investment linked to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in North America and Asia.

These are further supported by fiscal and monetary backing, broadly accommodative financial conditions, and the adaptability of the private sector.

The IMF added that global headline inflation is expected to decline from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and further to 3.4% in 2027.

The inflation projections are also broadly unchanged from those in October and envisage inflation returning to target more gradually in the United States than in other large economies.

In line with the report, the risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. Reevaluation of productivity growth expectations about AI could lead to a decline in investment and trigger an abrupt financial market correction, spreading from AI-linked companies to other segments and eroding household wealth.

As noted by the report, the trade tensions could flare up, prolonging uncertainty and weighing more heavily on activity.

Domestic political tensions or geopolitical tensions could erupt, introducing new layers of uncertainty and disrupting the global economy through their impact on financial markets, supply chains, and commodity prices.

As indicated by the IMF, the larger fiscal deficits and high public debt could put pressure on long-term interest rates and, in turn, on broader financial conditions.

On the upside, activity could be further lifted by AI-related investment and eventually transform into sustainable growth if faster AI adoption translates into strong productivity gains and increased business dynamism. Activity could also be supported by a sustained easing in trade tensions.

Based on the report, the policies to foster stability and sustainably lift medium-term growth prospects require a keen focus on restoring fiscal buffers, preserving price and financial stability, reducing uncertainty, and implementing structural reforms without further delay.

Nigeria’s Growth Outlook upgraded

In its World Economic Outlook Update: Annexe section of the report, the IMF upgraded the economic growth outlook of Nigeria from 4.2% to 4.4% for the Full-Year 2026.

The global organisation forecasted that Nigeria’s economic growth in 2027 will decline from 4.4% in 2026 to 4.1% in 2027.

Earlier, in its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasted that Nigeria’s growth rate would be 4.0% in 2027. It has increased by 0.1% in its latest report.

What The Upgraded Economic Growth Outlook Means for Nigeria

The IMF has raised Nigeria’s 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 4.4%, reflecting stronger expected economic expansion.

This upgrade indicates that key economic drivers, including industrial production and services, are outperforming earlier projections for the fiscal year.

However, the outlook for 2027 shows a projected deceleration to 4.1%, signalling that the heightened momentum in 2026 may not be structurally sustainable in the long term.

Despite this year-over-year slowdown, the 2027 figure is still a marginal 0.1% improvement over the IMF’s previous baseline of 4.0%.

Collectively, these figures represent a net positive adjustment to Nigeria’s medium-term macroeconomic trajectory, though growth remains sensitive to internal and global volatility.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) earlier projected that the Nigerian economy would grow by 3.89% in 2025.

The Apex Bank upped its economic outlook forecast for Nigeria in its latest Nigerian Economic Outlook report published in December 2025, where the Bank revealed that the nation’s economy will grow by 4.49% in 2026.

Nigeria’s 2026 projected growth is driven by ongoing structural reforms, enhanced private investment, increased oil production, and improved macroeconomic stability. The Nigerian inflation rate is also expected to moderate to around 12.94%.

The World Bank recently revised its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria upward from 3.7% to 4.4%. The IMF has now aligned with that outlook, raising its projection from 4.2% to 4.4%.

This projection, revealed in the bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects Report released on Tuesday, places its forecast above that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Despite revising down growth forecasts for nearly 70% of economies globally, the World Bank has maintained its earlier 3.6% projection for Nigeria.

This stability is attributed to monetary policy tightening, aimed at addressing currency depreciation and inflation, which is expected to drive economic expansion.

“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 3.6% and to an average of 3.8% in 2026-27. Following monetary policy tightening in 2024 to address rapid currency depreciation, inflation is projected to decline gradually. 

“Domestic reforms have helped spur investment, supporting growth in the services sector, especially in financial services and information and communication technology.”

The World Bank further predicts an improvement in Nigeria’s growth rate, reaching 3.7% and 3.8% in 2026 and 2027 respectively.

Global, the bank has lowered its growth forecast to 2.3% in 2025, a 0.4% reduction from its January prediction. Despite these cuts in global growth, the World Bank does not foresee the global economy entering a recession.

It also highlighted that sub-Saharan African countries face minimal exposure to any escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, as the region exports relatively few raw commodity goods to the U.S.

This 3.6% growth forecast from the World Bank is a divergence from the IMF’s revised projection for Nigeria, which stands at 3.0% for 2025. This difference reflects varying assessments of the country’s economic prospects.

While the IMF’s decision was reached amidst escalating global trade tensions and uncertainty in the crude oil sector, Nigeria’s major source of revenue, the World Bank looked at reforms and monetary tightening policies driving positive growth in the country.

The council, established by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, is tasked with shaping global policies that drive innovation and economic expansion.

Elumelu’s appointment places Africa’s entrepreneurial ambitions at the centre of high-level economic discussions. 

A fierce advocate for entrepreneurship, he has long led private sector-led development across the continent. Through his Tony Elumelu Foundation, over 25,000 African entrepreneurs have received funding, mentorship, and training since 2015. 

His philosophy of Africapitalism—the belief that Africa’s private sector must spearhead the continent’s transformation—aligns closely with the council’s objectives.

The IMF Advisory Council is a heavyweight gathering of business leaders, policymakers, and academics. Members include Salesforce co-founder Marc Benioff, Vodafone Group CEO Margherita Della Valle, Tata Group chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran, and Vista Equity Partners CEO Robert Smith. 

Others on the list are Argentine Minister of Deregulation and State Transformation Federico Sturzenegger, University of Chicago economist Ufuk Akcigit, Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. Reema Bandar Al-Saud, and Banco Santander’s executive chair Ana Botín.

Speaking at the council’s inaugural meeting on 26 March 2025, Kristalina Georgieva said: “The Council brings together a group of leading thinkers and practitioners in business, finance, academia, and policymaking to share their views and experiences on how macroeconomic and financial policies can provide a supportive environment for innovation, entrepreneurship, and productivity—key ingredients for a thriving private sector and strong economic growth.”

For Elumelu, this will help push Africa’s business agenda globally. His influence, combined with his deep-rooted belief in sustainable investment, will ensure discussions on removing barriers to entrepreneurship. 

When Musa needed a loan to expand his small electronics shop, he easily applied online and received the funds within hours. His access to financial services has allowed him to grow his business, support his family, and plan for the future.

In contrast, Amina lives in a rural village in northern Ghana. Her daily life is far more constrained.

When she sells her goods at the local market, her earnings are stored in cash, leaving her vulnerable to theft or loss. She has no formal safety net if her child gets sick or her crops fail.

Amina cannot save effectively or borrow to invest in her farm without access to a bank or mobile money services.

Her financial world is limited by geography and the lack of infrastructure that connects her to the wider economy.

These two lives, separated by a few hundred kilometers, illustrate Africa’s stark financial access divide. While city dwellers like Musa benefit from modern financial services, millions of rural Africans like Amina remain excluded from the formal financial system.

This gap in access is a barrier not only to individual prosperity but also to the overall economic development of the continent.

Globally, about 1.4 billion adults remain unbanked, with Africa home to a significant portion of this population.

Financial exclusion is even more pronounced in Africa, where over 60% of the adult population cannot access basic financial services such as savings, credit, or insurance.

The unbanked are often cut off from participating in the formal economy, unable to build wealth or fully engage in economic activities.

The exclusion stems from a lack of accessible financial infrastructure, insufficient literacy, and geographical barriers. For instance, in many rural parts of Africa, bank branches are scarce or non-existent, making it nearly impossible for individuals to open accounts, apply for loans, or even make basic transactions.

How Mobile Technology is Closing the Gap

In recent years, mobile technology has dramatically changed the financial landscape in Africa. Mobile money platforms like M-Pesa in Kenya and MTN Mobile Money in West Africa have made it possible for millions to transfer money, save, and even access loans and insurance services without needing a traditional bank account.

As of 2022, over 350 million people in sub-Saharan Africa were using mobile money services, representing more than 60% of the world’s mobile money transactions.

These platforms have effectively extended the reach of financial services to the previously unbanked, particularly in rural and underserved areas.

With mobile money, people can receive remittances from family members abroad, pay school fees, start small businesses, and gain access to basic health insurance.

This innovation has allowed for a more inclusive financial system, reducing barriers for those traditionally marginalized by banks.

However, while mobile players have made significant strides, the cost of infrastructure and regulatory limitations still pose challenges.

Despite the advances in mobile financial inclusion, the cost of building and maintaining infrastructure continues to leave millions excluded. In countries with vast rural populations and weak infrastructure, setting up physical banking services or even mobile money networks can be prohibitively expensive.

Network providers face high costs to extend their reach into remote areas where populations are sparse and incomes are low.

Without government subsidies or incentives, there is little business case for expanding financial services into these regions. Consequently, many are left reliant on informal financial systems, which are often insecure and inefficient.

Additionally, the digital divide exacerbates financial exclusion. Even though mobile technology is widely adopted, there is still a gap in smartphone ownership and internet access, further limiting access to more advanced financial services that require smartphones or mobile apps.

A Path Toward Broader Financial Inclusion

One potential solution to these challenges lies in white labeling. White labeling is when a product or service is created by one company but rebranded and distributed by another.

In the context of financial inclusion, white-label banking solutions can allow local trusted entities—such as cooperatives, community groups, or even telecom companies—to offer financial services without having to build the technology or infrastructure themselves.

Leveraging existing trust networks in local communities is far more effective than relying solely on large financial institutions or fintech companies to close the gap.

Instead of creating a few large companies that dominate the financial landscape, white-label services can be distributed more broadly, allowing smaller entities to reach deeper into rural areas and marginalized populations.

For example, community-based savings groups in rural areas could use a white-label mobile banking platform to offer their members savings accounts, loans, and insurance, tapping into a network that already has the trust and engagement of the local population.

This type of solution would drastically reduce the cost and complexity of providing financial services to the underserved.

Greater Access Benefits All

The economic benefits of financial inclusion are significant, both for individuals and for the economy as a whole.

For individuals, access to financial services enables savings, investment, and risk management. With the ability to save, people can build up capital over time, which they can then invest in starting businesses, buying property, or funding education.

Access to credit allows individuals and small businesses to smooth cash flow and seize growth opportunities, while insurance helps people manage risks and recover from financial shocks.

At a macroeconomic level, financial inclusion stimulates economic growth. By bringing more people into the formal economy, financial inclusion increases the flow of capital, boosts consumption, and creates jobs.

According to research by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), countries with higher levels of financial inclusion tend to have higher GDP growth rates.

A World Bank report noted that countries with broad financial inclusion enjoy lower poverty rates and less income inequality.

For Africa, where small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) contribute up to 90% of all businesses and more than 50% of employment, access to finance is essential for unlocking growth potential and driving economic development.

Furthermore, financial inclusion enhances financial stability by spreading financial risk across a broader section of the population and economy.

When more people and businesses are included in the formal financial system, the economy becomes more resilient to shocks like natural disasters or financial crises.

This is because formal financial institutions are better equipped to manage risk than informal lenders or unregulated markets.

Financial inclusion is not just a moral imperative; it’s an economic necessity. By ensuring that everyone, regardless of income or geography, has access to financial services, we can create wealth at the individual level and stimulate economic growth at the national level.

While mobile technology has made significant progress in closing the financial inclusion gap, there is still much work to be done.

High infrastructure costs and the digital divide continue to leave many excluded, but innovative solutions like white labeling offer a promising path forward.

By leveraging existing trust networks and local institutions, we can bring financial services to even the most remote corners of Africa and unlock the continent’s full economic potential.

Ultimately, greater financial inclusion will benefit not just individuals but also the broader economy, creating a virtuous cycle of growth, wealth creation, and prosperity.

*Ajibola Awojobi is the founder of BorderPal

He was also represented at the  G24, by Ben Akabueze, director general of the Budget Office of the Federation. The following are important highlight of his discussion in the aforementioned forums.

In a meeting with investors at the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington DC, Mr. Wale Edun revealed that, President Bola Tinubu-led Federal Government has not resorted to borrowing from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Edun, also affirmed the government’s commitment to employing ‘Ways and Means’ to tackle issue concerning liquidity oversupply in the system.

He emphasized the collaborative efforts between fiscal and monetary authorities to combat inflation and stabilize prices, while highlighting the objective of lowering interest rates to facilitate affordable borrowing for investors and drive economic recovery.

In his words:

“We will pin down Ways and Means to alleviate the pressure of excess money in the system,” underscoring the coordinated approach to address inflation and exchange rate stability.

The Minister stressed the importance of reducing reliance on borrowing and enhancing domestic resource mobilization. He outlined plans for tax reforms aimed at streamlining tax structures, leveraging technology, and implementing policies to double tax revenue within the next three years.

He however expressed concern over Nigeria’s low tax-to-GDP ratio, which stands below the African regional average.

The Finance Minister hinted at possible tax evasion, stating, “At 10 percent to GDP, what should I say, it would appear as if some people are not paying their taxes.”

The government’s focus on domestic resource mobilisation aligns with its long-term economic strategy to minimize repayment and refinancing pressures associated with external borrowing.

On other flip of the coin, the Minister of Finance, through Mr. Ben Akabueze also called for increased investments and trading partnerships from member countries of the Group of Twenty-Four.(G24).

The Group of 24 is an assembly of developing nations, with the collective aim is collaborate in aligning their stances on issues related to international monetary policy and development financing.

Mohammed Danjuma, the director of Information and Public Relations Ministry of Finance, in statement said, the Minister highlighted the Nigerian Government’s implementation of various intervention programmes and robust policies under the current administration.

These measures have reportedly begun to show positive effects, notably reducing the disparity between the parallel market and the official Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market rates.

Edun emphasized Nigeria’s advantageous position to attract foreign investments in diverse sectors, including manufacturing, agriculture, and oil and gas.

In response to a query from a Russian journalist, he pointed out that the last significant investment from Russia was the Ajaokuta Steel Company.

He also noted Nigeria’s vast arable land, second only to Brazil, suggesting that the country has the potential to become a major food exporter rather than an importer.

Addressing the operations of the Dangote Refinery, the minister defended the strategy to prioritise meeting domestic petroleum product demands before considering exports. He questioned the rationale behind exporting refined products while the nation continued to import them from Europe.

Furthermore, Edun assured all that the capital component of the 2023 supplementary budget would continue to be executed until June, reflecting the government’s commitment to impactful development across various sectors.

He also confirmed that the 2024 budget is being implemented as planned, promising improved welfare for the citizens.

The statement underscores Nigeria’s proactive steps towards economic re-positioning and its openness to international collaboration for mutual growth and stability.

The statement partly read,

“The Federal Government has said that it needs investment and increased trading relationships from member countries of the G-24 as these will play a critical role in the country’s quest for growth as well as ensure a stable and growing economy by bringing tranquility to the tempestuous foreign exchange market.

“Represented by the Director General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Mr. Ben Akabueze, the Minister informed the G-24, a group of countries working together to coordinate the positions of developing countries on international monetary and financial issues and indeed the global gathering that Nigerian Government, on its part, has administered a cocktail of intervention programme and potent policies which are already yielding desired outcomes.

“He explained that the efforts of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led Administration towards re-positioning the economy were already yielding desired outcomes, which has significantly narrowed the gap between the exchanges at the parallel market and the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market.”

According to the Washington-based lender’s recent report titled ‘Nigeria selected issues,’ agricultural credit in Nigeria has not significantly increased production, despite the challenge of targeting the right recipients for the credit.

President Muhammadu Buhari launched the ABP in November 2015 to boost agricultural production and reverse Nigeria’s negative food balance of payments.

Smallholder farmers cultivating cereals (rice, maize, wheat, etc.) cotton, roots and tubers, sugarcane, tree crops, legumes, tomato, and livestock are those captured under this initiative.

Loans are disbursed to farmers through Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), and Microfinance Banks (MFBs), all of which are recognized as Participating Financial Institutions by the program (PFIs).

According to the program’s guidelines, farmers repay their loans by taking their harvest to ‘anchors,’ who pay the cash equivalent to the farmer’s account.

The IMF, on the other hand, stated that the poor effect of agricultural credit on production growth could be attributed to difficulties in targeting the right recipients.

It explained that data (November 2020) from the central bank indicate that the repayment rate for the Commercial Agricultural Credit (CAC) Scheme is at almost 66 percent but, since the loans started in 2009, this is not a particularly high outcome.

“For the Anchor Borrowing Program, repayment is also low at 24 percent, especially since repayment can be made in kind, thereby limiting the tenor of the loans to one year.

“Part of the problem is that the incentive structure for repayment is weak, the recipient loans are not always well targeted and occasionally the funding is used for other purchases (e.g., new agricultural input trading companies to elicit trading rents),” the IMF said.