• Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to rise by 4.0% in 2026, compared to global GDP growth of 3.1%
• Fiscal reforms and investments are unlocking new consumption and business activity
• Shifts in global trade flows reshape export dynamics
• SMEs and digital adoption remain key growth themes

The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) has released ‘Economic Outlook 2026’, its annual report identifying themes that will shape this year’s economic landscape.

The report examines how global policy changes which grabbed headlines in 2025 will continue to influence economies around the world throughout 2026.

Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to strengthen in 2026, supported by easing inflationary pressures, resilient consumer demand and infrastructure investment.

Nigeria’s economy is expected to expand by 4.0% in 2026, outpacing the projected global growth of 3.1%. Growth is expected to be driven by resilient consumer demand as fiscal reforms ease pressures on households and major investment programs support business activity.

Inflation pressures are forecast to be moderate across Africa, aided by a weaker US dollar and lower energy prices, allowing room for central banks to reduce interest rates.

Mastercard data indicates that in Nigeria, consumers have already increased their discretionary spending in the first half of 2025, most notably on travel, signalling growing consumer confidence.

“Nigeria’s economic outlook highlights the benefits of reform momentum and slowing inflation, which are helping to restore purchasing power. While global trade pressures remain, strong domestic demand and diversification into strategic industries are expected to support growth in 2026,” said Khatija Haque, chief economist, EEMEA, Mastercard Economics Institute.

“Nigeria’s reform momentum and improving business sentiment are unlocking new avenues for growth, from everyday consumer spending to the rise of technology-driven enterprises. With one of the continent’s most dynamic consumer markets, the outlook for 2026 highlights Nigeria’s powerful role in shaping Africa’s economic future,” said Folasade Femi-Lawal, country manager, West Africa at Mastercard.

Key findings from the report include:

Reforms are supporting stronger consumer demand

Structural reforms and moderating inflation are expected to improve household balance sheets, enabling consumers to spend more freely. Demand for services, including travel, leisure and lifestyle, has already strengthened, according to Mastercard data.

Diversifying trade with emerging markets

African economies, including Nigeria, are trading more within the EEMEA region and with other emerging markets.

As US tariffs affect key sectors including automobiles, textiles and agricultural products, the Chinese Mainland’s removal of import duties on most African goods could help open alternative markets, deepening exporters’ integration into global supply chains.

As trade corridors expand, Mastercard’s cross-border payment solutions support businesses by enabling faster, more secure and more efficient international transactions.

Investment remains a key driver of growth

Investment is expected to remain a key driver of economic growth across Africa, including Nigeria. MEI notes that investments in renewable energy, transport and logistics infrastructure, natural resources and urban development should bolster economic activity by strengthening productive capacity and supporting longer-term growth.

Digital transformation boosts SME participation

The MEI anticipates digital transformation, particularly deeper AI integration, will boost productivity and growth.

With growing adoption of digital payment tools globally,  MEI sees an opportunity for SMEs to continue to gain share in tech-driven services.

To succeed, SMEs require strategic agility and digital readiness.  Those that are the most flexible and tech forward are likely to be best positioned to accelerate growth.

Consumers worldwide will remain savvy, focusing on international, tech-enabled and value-conscious spending.

They will continue to prioritize meaningful moments, such as travel and live events, while remaining price-sensitive for many necessary goods.

The ‘Economic Outlook 2026’ report draws on a multitude of public and proprietary data sets, including aggregated and anonymized Mastercard sales activity, as well as models that are intended to estimate economic activity.

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Cross-border movement is often influenced by the most pressing economic factors of the moment, such as exchange rates and geopolitical tensions.

However, these are not the only factors driving consumers’ travel spending decisions, including those in Africa. Personal and purpose-driven factors remain powerful even when economic uncertainty looms.

Building on the resilience of the global travel sector seen last year, the 2025 report highlights how destinations across the African continent are increasingly appealing to tourists and, creating additional opportunities for local markets to develop tourism.

“Africa is emerging as a global leader in purpose-driven travel, where nature, wellness, and culinary experiences are redefining the continent’s tourism landscape. These trends present a powerful opportunity to drive inclusive growth, support local economies, and position Africa as a key player in the future of global tourism,” said Mark Elliot, division president, Africa, Mastercard.

Whether drawn by Namibia’s wellness retreats, South Africa’s wilderness experiences or Morocco’s vibrant culinary scene, travelers are expanding their horizons beyond traditional hotspots.

“Tourism is playing an important role in Africa’s growth story. Travelers are increasingly drawn to the continent’s natural beauty, culinary diversity, and wellness experiences. While economic and geopolitical factors matter, the pursuit of meaningful, purpose-driven travel remains strong. The Mastercard Economics Institute’s report sheds light on how countries are tapping into this trend to attract visitors and boost local economies,” said Khatija Haque, chief economist EEMEA, Mastercard Economics Institute.

By exploring a full range of travel motivations, the report identifies the main themes shaping travel today:

2025 Africa travel trends:

• Nature-fueled adventures: South Africa and Zambia dominate cross-border spending around national park areas. Spending around South Africa’s major national parks far outpaced that of other countries, with nearly a quarter of the cross-border spending occurring within these zones. Zambia is also highly ranked as an outdoor adventure destination.
• Culinary crossroads: Marrakech ranks highly on the foodie list with its median restaurant hosting tourists from many different countries, often to enjoy meals of tagine and b’stilla. Cape Town is also on the list, with its bobotie dish proving popular with visitors.
• Wellness in the wild: Africa is establishing itself as a global leader in wellness-centered travel as consumers prioritize rejuvenation and self-care. Namibia, South Africa and Botswana are among the top destinations for travelers seeking spa-style and nature-based retreats and immersive eco lodges. Kenya is also ranked among the top 20 destinations for wellness In the Mastercard Wellness Index 2025.

Other global trends:

• Spa, summit and savor: Personal passions and goals motivate travel choices. Adventure-seekers are heading to the Nordics, where Finland’s national parks account for 7.1% of cross-border spending in the country.
• Summer destination draws: The Asia-Pacific region commands the list of trending summer destinations. Flight booking data reveals the top global destinations gaining most momentum for June-September travel, relative to last year. Tokyo is the number one trending spot for summer 2025, followed by Osaka and then Paris.
• Fuelled by fans: Fans travel internationally to see their favorite teams and athletes play. Case in point? During Shohei Ohtani’s World Series debut, spending by Japanese visitors in Los Angeles surged by 91%, six times the broader cross-border boost.
• Money matters: Despite geopolitical tensions and fluctuating prices, the factors that motivate consumers to travel are often more complex than just economic. But currency depreciation can make certain destinations, like Japan, more attractive due to their better value for money.
• Wheeling and dealing closer to home: In general, business travelers favor longer trips within their own regions, driven by hybrid work models and geopolitical uncertainty. However, there are exceptions, with UK businesses spending a growing share of their travel budgets in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Mastercard said it is dedicated to helping the global tourism sector grow through market analysis and high-frequency, data-driven insights that enhance the travel experience.

By empowering destinations and businesses to better understand evolving consumer trends, Mastercard is helping to shape a more connected and resilient future for travel across Africa.

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• Nigeria’s GDP is projected to grow by 2.9% year over year, consumer spending is predicted to rise by 6%, and consumer price inflation is likely to slow to 22.1%
• Migration is leading to a rise in remittances, with the continued digitization of the payments industry bringing cost efficiencies, security and convenience

The global economy has managed through a series of shocks admirably over the past few years.

The report anticipates 2025 to be defined by shifts in monetary and fiscal policy and a move toward equilibrium rates for growth and inflation.

In Nigeria, the Mastercard Economics Institute projects 2.9% year over year GDP growth in 2025, slightly below than the global average which is forecast at 3.2.%, reflecting the challenges and opportunities within one of Africa’s largest economies.

Meanwhile, consumer spending in the country is predicted to rise by 6%, despite elevated consumer price inflation of 22.1%, which continues to present challenges for households and businesses.

Economic growth is driven by robust remittance inflows, which sustain household incomes and consumption. Nigeria’s economy demonstrates resilience amid global and regional shifts, leveraging its human capital and remittance ecosystem to navigate challenges.

“Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2025 highlights the country’s resilience and potential for growth, driven by remittance inflows and consumer spending. These trends underscore the importance of fostering financial inclusion and addressing inflationary pressures to support sustainable development,” said Khatija Haque, chief economist, EEMEA, Mastercard.

Folasade Femi-Lawal, country manager and Area Business Head for West Africa shared, “Remittances play a pivotal role in driving economic resilience, and Mastercard Nigeria is committed to enhancing contactless payment solutions to simplify transactions, boost security, and reduce costs. Our efforts are aimed at fostering an inclusive financial ecosystem, ensuring seamless, secure payments that support Nigeria’s vibrant economy.”

Key findings from the Mastercard Economics Institute report include:

Pricing priorities

Consumers worldwide have been navigating a bumpy road of rising prices over the last five years, largely driven by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Inflation—the rate of increase in prices—remains a significant challenge for Nigeria, even as consumer price inflation is forecast to moderate to 22.1% in 2025 from over 33% in 2024. This reflects persistent pressures from currency volatility and supply chain disruptions.

Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s consumer spending is projected to grow by 6%, driven by the country’s youthful population and robust informal economy. However, high inflation continues to influence purchasing behaviour, with households prioritizing essential goods and services over discretionary spending.

Migration and money

The last few years saw significant movement in people and, by extension, capital. While migration results in a loss of human capital, it also generates substantial remittances, which serve as a lifeline for low- and middle-income communities in developing economies.

According to the World Bank, global remittances surged from $128 billion in 2000 to $857 billion in 2023, with an estimated growth of 3% in 2024 and 2025.

Economic recovery and local reforms are expected to sustain remittance growth through 2025, while the continued digitization of the payments industry allows recipients to shift to digital and mobile channels, resulting in considerable cost efficiencies, security and convenience.

In Nigeria, migration continues to shape the country’s economic landscape, contributing significantly to remittance inflows.

The rise of digital payments and mobile money solutions has further enhanced the efficiency and accessibility of remittances, reducing costs and ensuring secure, timely transactions.

These platforms are vital for Nigeria’s financial inclusion efforts, enabling underserved communities to access financial services and participate in the broader economy.

The ‘Economic Outlook 2025’ report draws on a multitude of public and proprietary data sets, including aggregated and anonymized Mastercard sales activity, as well as models that are intended to estimate economic activity.

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A new report, Travel 2022: Trends and Transitions, delivers critical insights across 37 markets about the global state of travel in a post-vaccine and less restricted chapter of the pandemic era.

Importantly, if flight booking trends continue at their current pace, an estimated 115 million more passengers in Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa will fly in 2022 compared to last year, according to an analysis by the Mastercard Economics Institute.

Drawing on a unique analysis of publicly available travel data, as well as aggregated and anonymized sales activity in the Mastercard network, the report dives into key elements of the traveler journey.

Key findings through April 2022 include:

1. Leisure and business flights surpass pre-pandemic levels: 

Travel recovery has been a largely consumer story for much of the pandemic. By the end of April, global leisure flight bookings surpassed 2019 levels by 25%; short- and medium-haul leisure flight bookings were up 25% and 27%, respectively. Global business flight bookings exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the first time in March, with long-haul specifically growing double-digits in April. The return to office was an important driver.

In the Middle East specifically, recovery in international travel bookings only accelerated from mid-2021 after the launch of Covid vaccination campaigns and eased travel requirements in the Western hemisphere. It has also been supported by Middle Eastern national carriers increasing their scheduled flights to more destinations.

Business travel in Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa is returning at a much slower pace. Short-haul bookings led the recovery, but only exceeded 2019 levels in March 2022, while medium-haul and domestic bookings remain 16% and 40% below 2019 levels, respectively, as of April 2022.

2. Domestic travel choices still lead among consumers in Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa: 

Since the onset of the pandemic, domestic travel has been the itinerary of choice for consumers in Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, although the recovery has been haphazard.

Domestic bookings surged and doubled pre-pandemic levels at the end of November 2020, collapsed in January 2021, jumped to more than 20% above pre-pandemic levels in February 2021, and collapsed again in mid-2021 before staging a more steady and sustained recovery. It exceeded pre-pandemic levels from February 2022.

3. Hard-hit transportation industries see spending rebound: Recent spending levels point to greater comfort with group travel.

Global spending on cruises gained 62 percentage points from January to the end of April, though remains below 2019 levels. Buses are back at pre-pandemic levels, while passenger rail spend remains 7% below.

Meanwhile, car road trips maintain their appeal, with spending on tolls and auto rentals up nearly 19% and 12%, respectively.

Among consumers in the Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, spend on passenger railways outperformed the rest of the world since January 2021, and the region has a much higher sustained spend increase over the same period in 2019.

Within auto-rentals, tourist spend has also been on a gradual recovery, exceeding 2019 levels on a more sustained basis from January 2022.

4. Travel spending shifts back to experiences over things:

For the better part of a year, international tourists spent more on experiences instead of souvenirs when in destination. Experiential spending is now 34% above 2019 levels; the areas seeing the largest spending increases are F&B outlets (72%) and amusement parks, museums, concerts and other recreational activities (35%).

In the U.K., spending growth each month in 2022 more than doubled compared to 2019 levels, currently 140% for April.

The global trend towards the Experience Economy has also reached Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, although half a year later than the global aggregate.

In South Africa, for example, although both spending on goods and experiences tend to trend similarly, growth in spending on experiences relative to 2019 levels has sustained around a 20 percentage point lead over goods spend since January 2022.

5. Loosening of restrictions recalibrates tourism map for 2022: 

Not surprisingly, the ability and convenience of travel has been a driving factor in booking destinations, though 2022 has provided a clean slate with restrictions loosened in much of the world, aside from parts of Asia-Pacific.

The result is that the U.S., U.K, Switzerland, Spain and The Netherlands are now the top destinations for tourists globally. For travelers from Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, the United Kingdom has been the choice destination in the ongoing recovery, with demand exceeding that for the United States.

The United Kingdom’s “Freedom Day” lifting of restrictions in July 2021 contributed to this trend. European destinations make up most of the top 10 destinations for travelers from Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa.

“Like any flight, the travel recovery has faced both headwinds and tailwinds. As the ‘Great Rebalancing’ takes place around the world, this mobility is critical to a return to pre-pandemic life,” said Bricklin Dwyer, Mastercard chief economist and head of the Mastercard Economics Institute. “The resilience of the consumer to return to ‘normal’ and make up for lost time gives us optimism that the recovery will continue directionally, even if there are bumps along the way.”

Comprehensive Support to Travelers & Tourism Sector

Mastercard delivers peace of mind, convenience and value for consumers and businesses of all sizes as they adjust to the return of travel. Whether their journey is near or far, consumer, corporate and T&E cardholders have access to an expanding list of programs, platforms and partnerships. Mastercard Travel & Lifestyle Services provides travel planning, offers, booking, guarantees and 24/7 hands-on concierge support. While in destination, Priceless.com gives travelers access to once-in-a-lifetime experiences, benefits and offers like Mastercard Travel Rewards. And, for small business travelers, Mastercard Easy Savings offers discounts and purchasing power at digital business service providers, fine-dining restaurants and international retailers and hotels.

Mastercard is also dedicated to helping the global tourism sector recover and welcome travelers through a range of services, from market analysis and high-frequency data insights that help make sense of changing consumer trends to marketing solutions and consumer engagement strategies that drive brand loyalty and maximize bookings. Most recently, the Tourism Innovation Hub in Spain was launched to develop tailored products and solutions to support a sustainable, inclusive return to travel through innovation, research and collaboration across the ecosystem.

*You can view the full Travel 2022: Trends and Transitions here. 

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