Revealed in Counterpoint’s latest report, this is the first decline after a strong run in 2025, coming down mainly to higher device prices, supply pressure in entry-level phones, and instability in parts of the Middle East.

The toughest hit came from the lowest price segment where phones priced between $50 and $99 fell 41% compared to last year.

Many of these devices were harder to find in stores, especially in parts of Africa and the Middle East where supply chains have been strained.

Prices rose across the board due to a global memory shortage affecting DRAM and NAND chips. That pushed up costs of production and fed directly into retail prices.

At the same time, conflict in parts of the Middle East raised shipping costs and disrupted normal distribution routes. Both factors combined to weaken demand in price-sensitive markets.

Samsung was the largest player in the region and grew 19% year on year. The company held steady because it had stronger inventory levels and a wider mix of premium devices. Its newer high-end models also supported sales, helping it avoid the worst of the supply pressure affecting other brands.

Apple also recorded strong growth, with iPhone shipments up 33% year on year. Its share in the region rose to 8%, up from 6% a year earlier. Demand was sustained in premium markets, particularly in the Gulf states where higher-income consumers continued to upgrade.

HONOR posted the most striking increase, growing 154% year on year. The jump reveals a low base last year, but also stronger positioning in the premium mid-range segment, especially in GCC markets where demand for higher-spec devices has been stable.

In contrast, Transsion and Xiaomi faced tougher conditions. Both brands had limited product availability in parts of the Middle East. In some retail channels, stock shortages were visible, which directly affected sales volumes.

Despite the overall decline, the MEA region showed stronger movement towards higher-end devices, with 5G smartphone shipments rising 42% year on year, and AI-capable smartphones also increased by 64%. Although most of that growth stayed concentrated in devices priced above $400.

This has not offset the weakness in the entry-level segment. Demand in lower-income markets has reduced as fuel prices, logistics costs, and job cuts in parts of the Gulf affect spending power. Buyers are becoming more cautious, and upgrades are happening less frequently.

The outlook for the next quarter is weak. Analysts expect further pressure on shipments in Q2 2026, with fewer promotional periods and challenges in both supply chains and regional conditions.

This was revealed in a new report from Counterpoint Research, as Apple led international brands with a 21% increase, while HONOR recorded an 83% peak, supported by strong inventory and early-year growth.

This shows that Chinese manufacturers still led the MEA market, with Samsung and Transsion holding large market shares through high volume shipments and strategic stock management.

The growth in Q4 was strongest at both the entry and premium ends of the market, with devices priced between $100 and $249 rising 28% year-on-year. This was driven by feature phone migration in Africa.

Phones above $700 jumped 46%, helped by consumer financing and trade-in programmes. High 5G adoption also contributed, with shipments of 5G devices surging 22% as operators expanded coverage in emerging markets.

Samsung posted 53% year-on-year growth, maintaining volume leadership over Transsion by front-loading lower-cost inventory ahead of rising market prices.

Xiaomi and Transsion saw declines of 14% and 4% respectively, as expensive components and global memory shortages hit production. HONOR’s strong growth came from leveraging existing stock and early-year demand, rather than market expansion alone.

The report noted that Q4 2025 may be the final growth quarter for the entry segment. The market is reaching the limits of low-cost component stocks, and memory price hikes are expected to slow shipments in 2026.

However, the premium segment is healthy, underpinned by financing options, trade-in programmes, and a strong appetite for high-end devices.

Strong 5G adoption is pushing premiumisation in both established and emerging markets, including Jordan, Iraq, Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, and Sierra Leone.

While geopolitical challenges fluctuated through the year, the market stayed resilient thanks to steady oil prices, consistent purchasing power, and demand for modern technology.

According to Counterpoint Research, 5G adoption in the region reached 37% during the quarter, up from 29% in Q1 2025. Sub-$100 5G smartphones from TECNO, OPPO, and itel were key drivers, particularly in Nigeria, Egypt, and Kenya. 

South Africa saw a 63% surge in 5G penetration, supported by MTN and Vodacom’s infrastructure investments and recent tax reforms, while Egypt benefited from IMEI whitelisting policies and local production. Kenya’s mobile-first economy, driven by M-Pesa and micro-lending partnerships, also played a good role.

The smartphone shipments 2025 report revealed that average selling prices (ASPs) rose 7% year-on-year, reflecting a clear shift in consumer preference toward high-end devices with advanced features such as AI translation, 120Hz AMOLED displays, telephoto cameras, and fast charging. 

However, ultra-affordable devices under $100 still dominated, supported by financing options and the migration of users away from feature phones.

Senior Analyst Yang Wang noted, “The MEA smartphone market entered 2025 with a strong recovery and is now steadying, with ASPs rising 7% YoY as consumers shift toward higher-end models. The sector is also consolidating, with smaller brands struggling to survive while leading players strengthen their position through differentiated products, partnerships, and an expanded offline presence. Chinese brands dominated with a 59% market share in Q2 2025, while a few global players continued to perform well in the high-end space.”

Brand Performance

Transsion Group retained its leadership with a 26% market share, led by TECNO at 17% and Infinix, which posted 14% year-on-year growth through youth-focused campaigns and strong dual-SIM offerings. However, itel continued to face setbacks due to weak positioning and supply chain challenges, despite focusing on sub-$100 devices.

Samsung secured the top position in the overall rankings with 1% year-on-year growth, thanks to its A-series line-up, trade-in programmes, flexible payment plans, and heavy AI-driven marketing. Its decision to cut active models from 105 to 73 helped sharpen its portfolio and reduce costs through local manufacturing.

Apple’s performance was the most striking, with shipments jumping 28% year-on-year. The iPhone 16e recorded triple-digit quarterly growth, boosted by financing schemes, aggressive promotions, and anticipation for the iPhone 17 in GCC markets.

Xiaomi, meanwhile, managed a 9% increase in shipments but faced pressure from aggressive competition. Its ASP dropped 8% year-on-year as sales skewed heavily toward the $50–$99 band. The company’s cautious strategy and limited fresh launches left room for competitors to capture market share, despite its strong offline distribution.

Outlook

The MEA smartphone market is now showing signs of stabilisation after months of volatility. With affordable 5G phones boosting demand, premium devices attracting more buyers, and regional economic conditions slowly improving, experts project competition among top brands to increase further in the second half of 2025.