This surge, driven by Amazon’s extended Prime Day event and counter-promotions from rivals, shows a retail environment now defined by deep discounts, digital tools, and tariff anxiety.

Compared to last year’s same-period figure of $18.5 billion, this year’s projection from Adobe Analytics is a 28.4% year-on-year jump. It surpasses Black Friday 2024’s entire online haul by more than double. “This is equivalent to two Black Fridays,” Adobe said in its forecast.

The Prime Day window, now stretched from the usual 48 hours to 96, comes as Amazon tries to hold ground against Walmart’s July 8–13 “Deals” event and Target’s “Circle Week” running July 6–12. 

All three are pushing loyalty incentives, exclusive deals, and early access to shoppers willing to spend before the July 9 tariff deadline set by former President Donald Trump. That date is getting closer, with unresolved trade negotiations casting a shadow over pricing certainty.

With prices on edge and wallets under pressure, shoppers are moving fast. They’re chasing discounts and being tactical at the same time. Mobile phones are expected to drive more than half of all purchases, accounting for $12.5 billion, as real-time alerts and notifications trigger impulse buying. 

Buy Now, Pay Later usage is also climbing, with Adobe estimating it will cover 8% of total online spend, up from 7.6% last year.

Adobe expects a massive uptick in affiliate-driven sales, noting that nearly 20% of this year’s revenue will come from influencer and affiliate links, a 16.6% increase from last year. 

Generative shopping tools, including bots and assistants embedded in apps and websites, are leading to a 3,200% increase in traffic to retail platforms compared to 2024’s Prime Day.

What are people buying? Apparel tops the discount chart with an average 24% markdown, followed by electronics at 22% and TVs at 17%. Appliances (16%), toys (15%), furniture (14%), and computers (12%) also feature heavily. Sporting goods round out the list at 10%. 

Back-to-school essentials—backpacks, headphones, lunch boxes—are flying off digital shelves as early buyers hunt for bargains before price hikes become a reality.

The numbers behind this retail explosion are based on Adobe’s analysis of over 1 trillion visits to U.S. e-commerce sites, spanning 100 million product listings and 18 categories. It’s not a sample, it’s the system.

Retailers, meanwhile, aren’t resting. They’re under pressure to match or beat Amazon on delivery times, perks, and price cuts.

The battleground isn’t just Prime Day, but the wider race for digital takeover in an economy where inflation, trade policies, and evolving consumer habits are changing everything in real time.

This figure is an 11% increase from the $12.7 billion spent during the same period last year, as reported by Adobe Analytics. 

On the first day of Prime Day, consumers spent $7.2 billion, an 11.2% rise compared to the previous year. The momentum continued on the second day, with spending reaching $7 billion, a 10.4% year-over-year growth. 

Despite Amazon not disclosing its own detailed figures, the company confirmed the record-breaking success of the event.

An obvious trend during this year’s Prime Day was the surge in mobile shopping. Purchases made via mobile devices constituted 18% of total sales, indicating a growing shift towards mobile commerce. 

Amazon’s Rufus AI assistant was key in assisting millions of customers by providing product recommendations and order updates. 

This AI tool, which was rolled out to all U.S. users just before Prime Day, showed the increasing integration of artificial intelligence in enhancing the shopping experience.

Electronics and furniture emerged as the top categories driving sales, with consumers taking advantage of the discounts to upgrade their home and personal tech. 

Back-to-school shopping also contributed greatly to the overall spend. Another noteworthy trend was the use of “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) options, which accounted for 7.6% of the total sales, equating to $1.08 billion. 

This payment method has become increasingly popular, allowing consumers to manage their purchases more flexibly.

According to data from Numerator, the average order value during Amazon Prime Day 2024 was $57.97, an increase from the previous years’ averages of $56.64 and $53.14.

This means that consumers were willing to spend more per transaction, possibly due to attractive deals and the broader range of products available.

Prime Day continues to have a huge impact on the e-commerce market, not just benefiting Amazon but also driving sales across other retailers who align their promotional events with Prime Day. 

Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, noted that the deep discounts offered during Prime Day acted as a stimulus for consumer spending, particularly in electronics, apparel, and furniture categories, which had seen modest growth earlier in the year.