The refinery plans to issue 3 billion ordinary shares at $0.35 each, setting the valuation and placing the facility among the most valuable privately held industrial assets in Africa.

Investors have shown strong interest, with indications that demand has already doubled the target before allocation closes.

The minimum entry for investors stands at 1 million shares, costing $350,000. Subscriptions can then rise in blocks of 500,000 shares, while investors will also remain locked in for 365 days after allotment.

The funds will support expansion work, logistics systems, storage capacity, and other corporate needs. The refinery also reveals possible moves into related petrochemical operations, although details are broad at this stage.

The facility, which began production in 2024 after years of construction that cost an estimated $20 billion, processes about 650,000 barrels of crude per day. Output now includes diesel, aviation fuel, naphtha, and premium motor spirit.

Investor appetite has stretched beyond Nigeria as institutional investors and diaspora buyers have shown strong participation. Demand levels suggest oversubscription before the process closes.

Femi Otedola has confirmed plans to invest $100 million, drawing from proceeds linked to his Geregu Power stake sale. His entry adds to the high-net-worth participation in the offer.

The size of the valuation and the level of demand have renewed discussion around a possible future listing. No timeline has been set, but there are expectations that a public offer may follow at some point.

Aliko Dangote has previously indicated interest in listing the refinery on capital markets. The current placement is seen as an early step that could expand ownership ahead of any future initial public offering.

The refinery’s scale already places it at the centre of Nigeria’s energy supply chain. It has reduced dependence on imported fuel and created new export channels. Analysts say this position strengthens its appeal to global investors looking for large infrastructure assets with foreign exchange potential.

The implied valuation exceeds the market value of most listed companies on the Nigerian Exchange when taken individually. This comparison has added weight to discussions about how deep investor appetite could run if a full listing eventually takes place.

The private placement is currently attracting commitments from local and international investors, with the level of demand showing strong confidence in the refinery’s long-term production capacity and its role in regional fuel supply.

The payments cover certified obligations linked to completed government projects across different sectors.

In the latest round alone, the ministry approved settlements for over 1,240 contractors. Officials say a large share of the disbursement went to small and medium-sized firms affected by long payment delays. 

“The Federal Ministry of Finance has approved payments to more than 1,240 contractors, providing immediate liquidity support to businesses across the country and reinforcing the Federal Government’s commitment to meeting its financial obligations,” the statement said. 

The ministry also noted that about N436.6 billion was processed in May, making it one of the strongest monthly releases in recent months.

Earlier in January 2026, the government released N152 billion after contractor groups carried out activities, including protests led by the Association of Indigenous Contractors of Nigeria (AICAN). 

That protest forced discussions with the Ministry of State for Finance, led by Doris Uzoka-Anite. The Senate later stepped in and set up a committee to engage the ministry and ensure a resolution to outstanding payments.

Contractor associations estimate that total verified liabilities stand at about N4 trillion, covering capital and infrastructure projects executed before and during the 2024 fiscal cycle. 

While the 2026 Appropriation Bill set aside N100 billion for contractor debts, many groups say the figure falls far short of what is owed, and they haven’t stopped pressing for comprehensive settlement.

For many small firms, the payments provide short-term relief. Contractors say the inflows help restart stalled projects in Nigeria, settle workers’ wages, and clear debt owed to suppliers. 

Some also point to reduced stress from banks and lenders after months of limited cash flow caused by unpaid government jobs.

The Finance Ministry maintains that all payments go through strict verification checks before release. Funds are paid directly through Central Bank remittances into contractors’ commercial bank accounts, a system officials say improves traceability and reduces leakages.

The decision is expected to push up the price of soft drinks and similar products.

Lawmakers took the decision during plenary while considering the report on the Customs, Excise Tariff, etc. (Amendment) Bill.

The new system hands the Minister of Finance responsibility for setting the exact rate, in line with fiscal guidelines.

Under the old arrangement, manufacturers and importers paid N10 per litre on carbonated drinks, energy drinks, and other sweetened beverages.

Authorities introduced the tax in 2022 to discourage high sugar intake and raise funds for health programmes.

Over time, inflation weakened that structure. A bottle of soft drink that sold for about N150 when the tax began now sells between N350 and N500. The fixed levy lost much of its effect on both price control and consumption patterns.

The Senate argues that the new percentage-based model will restore relevance to the tax. It also aims to improve revenue generation while linking collections more closely to current market prices.

Between 2022 and 2025, the N10-per-litre charge generated about N108.6 billion for the government. Lawmakers say the figure no longer matches the scale of public health needs.

A portion of the new revenue will support a dedicated health fund. The fund will support primary healthcare, disease prevention, and health insurance coverage for vulnerable groups across the country.

Public health formed a large part of the issue. Diabetes affects about 8% of Nigerians, or roughly 18 million people. Hypertension is more widespread, affecting an estimated 40% of adults.

Costs of treatment keep increasing and on average, households spend about N608,940 annually per patient managing non-communicable diseases. National spending on these conditions stands at about N1.92 trillion each year.

Most healthcare expenses still fall directly on families. Many households pay out of pocket when a serious illness occurs, which increases financial pressure.

Nigeria also ranks high in global soft drink consumption. Citizens consume about 38.6 million litres daily, placing the country as the fourth-largest consumer worldwide.

Sugar demand stands at about 1.8 million metric tonnes each year. More than 90% of this demand comes from imports. Local refining is dominated by known operators such as Dangote Sugar Refinery and Golden Penny.

Health experts have long linked high sugar intake to rising cases of obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease. They argue that sugary drinks contribute significantly to these trends.

Stakeholders in the industry are divided on the policy. The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise has warned against higher taxes on sweetened beverages. It argues that consumers already face strong economic pressure.

Health specialists, however, are aiming for stronger taxation. Some studies recommend rates of up to 20% of retail price, or as high as N130 per litre, to reduce consumption meaningfully.

Global health bodies, including the World Health Organisation, have also supported sugar taxes as a tool to curb lifestyle-related diseases.

On the implications for consumers, prices of popular soft drinks, energy drinks, and similar products are likely to increase once the new rate takes effect. Demand may also shift if prices surge.

Manufacturers may feel pressure as well, with higher costs affecting sales volumes, but it may also push companies to expand low-sugar product lines.

For the health sector, the policy could provide additional funding over time. This may ease dependence on out-of-pocket spending, though outcomes will depend on implementation.

Equity concerns are part of the discussion. Lower-income households in Nigeria may feel the sugar tax impact of higher prices more steeply, especially in a market where sugary drinks are widely consumed.

At the same time, total capital importation into Nigeria rose to $10.37 billion, an 83.8% increase compared with the same period in 2025. This is also a 61% rise from the previous quarter.

Telecoms barely registered in the inflow mix, while banking and finance absorbed most of the funds entering the country.

Banking alone pulled in $7.55 billion, while the financing sector followed with $2.43 billion. Together, they accounted for more than 96% of total inflows.

Most of the capital entering the country came through short-term instruments. Portfolio investment topped the list with about 95% of total inflows, and foreign direct investment small at $135 million, or roughly 1.3%.

Telecoms, by comparison, attracted just 0.07% of total inflows, trailing even trading, agriculture, IT services and equities.

The decline in the sector stands out when set against recent years. Telecom capital importation reached $496.27 million in 2025, while it stood at $456.59 million in 2024. In 2023, it dropped to $134.75 million, before rising again in 2022 to $456.83 million.

A steep drop was recorded in the latest quarterly figures as seen. Inflows fell 91% year-on-year from $80.78 million in Q1 2025 and also dropped 93% from $103.36 million in the previous quarter.

Policy changes in the sector have not shifted investor behaviour. Early in 2025, the Nigerian Communications Commission approved a 50% tariff adjustment for operators with an aim to improve revenue and support network expansion.

Operators also increased spending. The commission said telecom companies invested more than N2.5 trillion in infrastructure in 2025. That is over $1 billion in network upgrades.

Even so, foreign inflows did not follow, as investors appear more focused on fixed-income returns than long-term infrastructure commitments. High yields in money market instruments and bonds continue to draw capital.

This means money is coming in, but not where long-term investment is most needed.

Foreign exchange reforms have helped strengthen activity in banking. Still, volatility in the currency market still weighs on long-term decisions, especially in sectors like telecoms that require steady capital planning.

The International Finance Corporation and the World Bank have in past reports pointed to the need for stable, long-term investment conditions in infrastructure-heavy sectors. That gap is very much visible in the current data.

Heavy dependence on short-term inflows leaves productive sectors exposed. Telecoms, manufacturing and agriculture all receive limited foreign capital.

These risks must be looked into as foreign investment in Nigeria drives growth for telecom, banking and many other sectors.

More than 100 employees have been promoted across its global operations, with one-time economic relief payment also introduced for all staff worldwide. 

In Nigeria, employees will receive additional tax support and cost-of-living adjustments following recent regulatory changes affecting take-home pay.

The decision also results from high living costs across key markets, including Nigeria, where inflation stood at 15.69% in April 2026. 

Food inflation was recorded at 16.06% in the same period. Fuel prices have also surged, with petrol selling at about ₦1,532.93 per litre, adding pressure to transport and daily expenses.

“I often say our people are our secret sauce,” Olugbenga “GB” Agboola, Flutterwave founder and CEO said. “They are the ultimate engine behind everything we build, giving us the capacity to create solutions that power businesses, unlock opportunities, and move money seamlessly across Africa and beyond.”

The company said the latest support measures are part of its approach to staff welfare and retention. It added that it wants employees to focus on work without constant financial strain.

Annette Akpolo, head of People and Culture at Flutterwave, said the approach combines individual performance with better staff support.

“Our goal has always been to build an environment where our people can focus on doing their best work, rather than being weighed down by economic anxiety,” Akpolo said. 

“Pairing merit-based individual growth with supporting the collective needs of the whole team are both essential parts of how we build a company culture where people genuinely want to stay and grow over the long term.”

Founded in 2016, Flutterwave marks its tenth year in 2026. The company said it has now processed over 1 billion transactions and moved more than $40 billion in total payment value globally.

Flutterwace also reported strong recent growth, including a 289% increase in wallet-based collections by transaction count and a 184% rise in bank transfer value over the past year. The company attributed this to wider use of local payment methods across its markets.

The announcement comes as Nigeria’s fintech sector competes for skilled talent. Firms such as Paystack and Interswitch are also expanding, while companies adjust pay and benefits to retain staff under rising cost pressures.

At Flutterwave, leadership said growth remains tied to performance and contribution.

“At Flutterwave, growth is earned through meaningful contributions to the business and to the mission we are building together,” Agboola said. “As we continue to grow, the people who will shape our future are those who consistently step up, solve hard problems, support others, and move the company forward.”

That is not an exaggeration, because when you look around, you see this driving every financial decision in the country today. 

People are earning, but many are not feeling it. When salaries come, they dissolve almost immediately into transport, food, rent, and a long list of unavoidable expenses. 

In this situation, investing is no longer a light conversation, you need it to survive, it is a strategy dressed as financial planning.

So we are past the point of asking whether to invest. The focus now is on where capital still works in an economy like this, and why.

The Investment Climate: Why Everything Seems Different Now

I think it is important to start with the environment before talking about opportunities. Nigeria is not operating in a “normal” market cycle but adjusting to a high-cost economy where money behaves differently.

Interest rates are elevated compared to recent years, and that alone has changed investor behaviour. Fixed-income instruments have become attractive again, not because they are exciting, but because they finally pay something meaningful.

At the same time, inflation is affecting daily lives more than any headline indicator. Food prices, transport fares, and basic goods are still absorbing a large share of income. 

Even when prices stabilise for a short period, people don’t feel relief immediately. Purchasing power does not recover quickly, it erodes slowly and then suddenly seems to be gone.

Then there is the currency. The naira has gone through repeated adjustments and market pressures that have made planning difficult for households and businesses alike. 

This has created a split reality for investors, naira-based returns versus dollar-linked thinking. And yes, both are important.

Put simply, we are in an economy where preservation of value is just as important as growth.

The Investment Opportunities in 2026

Tier 1: Capital Preservation in a High-Rate Economy

There is a shift happening among informed investors, with many no longer placing high returns first, instead, they are trying to stop losses before anything else.

1. Government securities and fixed income

Treasury bills and federal government bonds have become core again. They offer predictable returns in a period where unpredictability is everywhere else.

For conservative investors, this is not about profit maximisation, the focus is stability. It is a place to park funds while still earning something that competes with inflation pressure.

2. Money market funds

Money market funds have also gotten attention, especially among salaried workers and small businesses. They provide liquidity with relatively stable yields and this is important in a volatile environment.

What is interesting here is not just the returns, but the behaviour change. People who once ignored these instruments are now actively using them as a default holding position for cash.

3. Fixed deposits

Fixed deposits still exist in the conversation, but their role has changed, and in many cases, they are now about discipline, not just return. The comparison is not against traditional savings accounts, but against inflation itself.

If your money is not growing faster than prices, it is effectively shrinking.

Tier 2: Income-Generating Assets That Still Work

This is where things become more dynamic. Income generation is now the focus for a large segment of investors.

4. Dividend-paying equities

The Nigerian stock market rewards select sectors, particularly banking and telecommunications. These are not speculative plays in this context, they are cash-flow businesses operating in a high-interest environment.

Banks, for example, usually benefit from elevated interest rates, which can boost earnings in certain conditions. Telecoms are relatively defensive because demand for data and connectivity does not disappear during economic stress.

However, this is not a uniform situation, because stock selection is more important than ever and the gap between strong performers and weak ones is wide.

5. Real estate: income versus expectation

Real estate in Nigeria has always carried emotional weight. People trust it but the reality today is more complex.

Rental income has become the more reliable angle compared to pure capital appreciation. In urban centres, demand for housing is still strong, but affordability is where the headache comes in. That stress drives both opportunity and frustration.

There is also a transition towards peri-urban development, areas slightly outside major city centres where land is still accessible and demand is gradually increasing.

Real estate has gone beyond owning property to understanding location timing.

6. Agriculture and food systems

Agriculture is one of the most structurally important investment areas in Nigeria. But it has gone beyond farming. The value is now in the entire chain, from processing, storage, logistics, to distribution.

Now, when it comes to food inflation, it is not just a consumer issue but also a signal of demand imbalance. Where inefficiency exists, opportunity usually follows.

Tier 3: High-Growth, High-Risk Opportunities

In the year 2026, the investment opportunities in this section attract attention, but also require cautiousness.

7. Fintech and digital finance

Financial technology expands continuously because it is directly on top of real problems, such as payments, access, and informal financial systems. Even with increased regulation and competition, innovation is far from saturated.

The opportunity here is in infrastructure that supports financial access, not just in new platforms.

8. Tech-enabled services and remote work

One of the silent shifts in Nigeria’s economy is the growing reliance on global income streams. Remote work, freelance services, and digital exports are now part of household income strategies.

Earning in foreign currency is attractive, yes, but it is becoming a hedge.

9. Import substitution businesses

There is also an opportunity in replacing imports. With costs increasing and currency pressures persisting, locally produced alternatives become more competitive.

This is happening in packaging, consumer goods, and basic manufacturing inputs. Where imports become expensive, local production becomes relevant.

10. Dollar-Linked Opportunities: The Noiseless Priority

This is perhaps the most important section for understanding modern Nigerian investment behaviour.

More investors are thinking in dual currency terms not because they want to abandon the naira, but because they want protection.

Export-oriented businesses are growing, and so are services that generate foreign income. Even diaspora-linked financial flows influence fintech growth.

There is a simple logic here, which is that if your income is entirely tied to one currency, your risk is also tied to it.

Where Smart Money Is Moving

Rather than just listing industries, it is more useful to observe direction.

Banking is essential, largely due to the interest rate environment, energy-related sectors evolve alongside global oil and transition discussions, while telecommunications are structurally strong because consumption patterns are stable even under pressure.

Logistics and distribution are expanding as supply chain expenses change how goods move across the country.

These are responses to how the economy is actually functioning.

Risks That Cannot Be Ignored

Any serious investment discussion in Nigeria must include risk, but it should not just be as a warning at the end, it should be part of the decision process.

Currency volatility is a structural factor as we see inflation still affecting returns. Liquidity challenges can appear unexpectedly, especially in property and private markets.

There is also the issue of unregulated investment schemes targeting retail investors during periods of economic stress. This is where caution becomes more important than ambition.

Returns mean very little if capital is lost.

How Investors Are Thinking Now

One of the most obvious changes I have observed is not in what people invest in, but how they allocate.

A more balanced approach is here:

• Conservative investors lean heavily on fixed income and money market instruments.
• Balanced investors mix equities, real estate, and cash-like instruments.
• Aggressive investors include foreign currency exposure, tech, and alternative assets.

There is no perfect formula but there is a common theme, which is diversification now a necessity.

Nigeria today is not a market where one decision guarantees stability. It is a market where structure is more essential than prediction.

The most important focus is protecting purchasing power while still participating in growth.

In simple terms, the goal has gone beyond just growing money. It is to make sure money does not silently lose meaning while sitting still.

That is the actual investment opportunities this year, 2026.

This was revealed in the new figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The increase adds more stress on households and businesses already enduring high transport, food and energy expenses across the country.

NBS said petrol prices increased by 18.97% compared to March 2026. Every year, prices rose by 23.69% from N1,239.33 recorded in April 2025.

In March, the national average stood at N1,288.54 per litre before moving higher in April.

The figures show the continuous impact of fuel deregulation, foreign exchange instability, high global crude prices and increasing distribution prices within Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

Across the states, Yobe recorded the highest average petrol price at N1,599.05 per litre. Edo followed at N1,595.74, while Bauchi posted N1,589.07.

On the other hand, Niger recorded the lowest average retail price at N1,403.89 per litre. Sokoto sold at N1,404.16, while Katsina recorded N1,406.28.

The report also showed regional differences in fuel prices.

The South-South recorded the highest zonal average at N1,566.76 per litre. The North-West had the lowest average at N1,508.81.

Analysts link the high price gap between states to transport costs, supply challenges, infrastructure problems and varying access to fuel depots.

Northern states in particular still face higher delivery costs because many marketers transport products over long distances.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate climbed to 15.69% in April 2026, up from 15.38% in March. Food inflation reached 16.06% year-on-year, driven by rising prices of staple foods including yam, maize, millet and sorghum.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, also rose to 15.86%, showing that price pressure now cuts across several sectors of the economy.

At the state level, Sokoto recorded the highest inflation rate at 25.74%. Bauchi followed at 22.52%, while Zamfara posted 22.03%. Edo recorded the lowest inflation rate at 5.91%.

Global oil prices also contributed to the rise in local petrol prices.

Brent crude climbed to $120.4 per barrel in April 2026 from $103.7 in March following renewed tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, the naira averaged N1,361 against the dollar during the month despite market volatility.

The removal of petrol subsidies in 2025 also left local fuel prices fully exposed to market forces.

Meanwhile, a recent survey showed that both petrol and cooking gas prices were high between April and May 2026.

The survey, conducted on May 23, found that cooking gas prices in Lagos increased from around N1,300 to N1,400 per kilogram in April to between N1,350 and N1,500 in May.

Petrol prices during the same period ranged between N1,200 and N1,350 per litre.

In the Federal Capital Territory and Nasarawa State, cooking gas prices rose to as high as N1,500 per kilogram, while petrol sold for between N1,350 and N1,444 per litre at major filling stations.

Kaduna and Rivers recorded some of the widest price differences for both petrol and cooking gas because of supply shortages and logistics costs.

In Kaduna, a 5kg cooking gas refill averaged N9,212 in April, while a 12.5kg refill cost around N23,030. Retail cooking gas prices in the state ranged between N1,300 and N1,500 per kilogram.

The offer runs for two tranches with different maturities and returns. Tranche A carries a tenor of 272 days with a discount rate of 18.53% and an implied yield of 21.50%. 

Tranche B runs for 364 days, with a discount rate of 19.53% and an implied yield of 24.25%.

The minimum subscription is N5 million, while additional investments come in multiples of N1,000. The offer closes on Monday, May 25, 2026, with the funding date set for Tuesday, May 26, 2026.

The company said proceeds will go into core operational needs and also listed inventory support and wider expansion plans. 

In its disclosure, it stated: “Proceeds from the issuance will be used for inventory financing, working capital optimisation, operational expansion, and broader mobility infrastructure development across Nigeria.”

United Capital Plc is the lead issuing house for the transaction. Cordros Capital Plc and Rand Merchant Bank act as joint issuing and placing agents. Wema Bank Plc, Access Bank Plc and Providus Bank serve as receiving banks.

Credit rating agencies assigned investment-grade ratings to the programme. DataPro Limited gave it an A1 short-term rating and an A long-term rating. Agusto & Co. assigned an A2 short-term rating and a Bbb long-term rating.

CIG Motors returned to the market after completing full redemption of its N10.2 billion Series 1 commercial paper. The company pointed to that repayment as part of its track record in meeting obligations and managing institutional funding.

Recent financial disclosures show revenue of N177.4 billion. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation stood at N35.3 billion. Profit after tax came in at N17.3 billion. These figures are part of the documentation supporting the new issuance.

Executives say the numbers reveal steady operational growth, pointing to expanding activity in vehicle assembly, mobility services and after-sales support.

Chairman Diana Chen described the transaction as a strong vote of confidence in both Nigeria’s economic outlook and the company’s long-term growth strategy.

Group Chief Financial Officer Ram Murugesan said the company’s financial performance shows a deliberate platform-building approach driven by disciplined leverage management and expanding operational capacity.

Gbadebo Adenrele also noted that the successful redemption of Series 1 strengthened the company’s position in the local capital market. He added that United Capital’s involvement in the Series 2 issuance followed CIG Motors’ execution record and financial discipline.

The fundraising is seen within a pattern in Nigeria’s commercial paper market. Corporate issuers have turned more to short-term debt as bank lending costs are high and liquidity stays tight.

In 2025, Nigerian companies raised more than N1 trillion through commercial paper programmes. Yields in that period generally ranged between 18% and 25%, reflecting inflation pressures and funding demand across sectors.

CIG Motors’ current pricing falls within that range. It also places the offer in line with other mid-tier industrial and manufacturing issuers competing for investor funds.

Ratings on the programme point to moderate risk with investment-grade status. That places it below top-tier corporates, but still within acceptable thresholds for institutional investors seeking yield.

The company’s operations include vehicle assembly, electric mobility solutions and transport services. Its structure reflects a drive toward integrated automotive services rather than import-heavy distribution.

In 2024, Lagos State Government, through IBILE Holdings Limited, entered a partnership with CIG Motors. The deal covered the acquisition of 5,000 vehicles for the Lagos Ride transport scheme, with an estimated value of $260 million.

The programme aims to modernise urban transport in Lagos and replace older vehicles across parts of the public mobility system. It also positioned CIG Motors more firmly inside state-backed transport infrastructure projects.

Nigeria’s automotive sector is operating under pressure from import tariffs on fully built vehicles. Foreign exchange volatility also affects spare parts costs and local assembly operations. Policy direction, however, continues to support local assembly and electric mobility.

CIG Motors’ model is within that policy direction. Its focus on assembly, mobility services and electric vehicle expansion aligns with government efforts to reduce import dependence and build local capacity in transport infrastructure.

This regulatory approval aligns with the apex bank’s ambitious target to scale monthly inward remittances to $1 billion by 2026. 

By authorising Finlogic to facilitate direct inward transfers, the CBN strives to capture private capital within the formal banking system, thereby supporting the stability of the Naira and enhancing national economic resilience.

The IMTO licensing allows Finlogic to operate with greater autonomy, bypassing traditional intermediaries to offer a more direct path for funds entering the country. 

This operational efficiency is expected to result in faster settlement cycles and improved pricing for the Nigerian diaspora, who remain a vital pillar of the nation’s financial stability.

Finlogic’s entry into the IMTO space is underpinned by its existing Money Services Business (MSB) licence from Canada. 

This dual-licence status establishes a secure, compliant corridor for North American inflows, ensuring that transactions meet the highest global standards of transparency and institutional security.

“Our commitment is to ensure that the contributions of Nigerians abroad are integrated into the domestic economy with absolute integrity,” said Joseph Afolabi, founder and CEO of Finlogic.

“This IMTO licence serves as a seal of trust, allowing us to provide a dependable gateway for inward transfers that directly contribute to Nigeria’s broader macroeconomic objectives.” 

Afolabi further emphasised that Finlogic’s seven-year trajectory has been defined by a focus on solving structural settlement challenges. 

“We have built a technology-led infrastructure designed to remove the friction associated with inward capital flows. By working closely with local banking partners, we are supporting the CBN’s mandate to maintain a transparent and robust foreign exchange market.”

As Nigeria seeks to double its official remittance receipts, the role of regulated, direct-access operators like Finlogic becomes increasingly central to the country’s financial inclusion and liquidity strategies.

The proposal, presented to a joint sitting of lawmakers on Friday, sets capital spending at ₦26.08 trillion and non-debt recurrent expenditure at ₦15.25 trillion. 

Expected revenue is put at ₦34.33 trillion, leaving a deficit of ₦23.85 trillion, or 4.28% of GDP, well above the 3% limit in Nigeria’s Fiscal Responsibility Act.

At the core of the budget is a heavy debt burden. Tinubu plans to spend ₦15.52 trillion servicing existing loans, about 27% of total expenditure. 

That single line item is larger than the combined allocations to health and education, a reality that has already led to concerns among economists about how much fiscal space is left to drive growth.

Oil is the budget’s main pillar. The government pegged the crude benchmark at $64.85 per barrel, production at 1.84 million barrels per day, and the exchange rate at ₦1,400 to the dollar. 

Since the presentation, however, the Senate has adjusted the oil price assumption downward to $60 per barrel, noting global price swings and fears of oversupply. 

This looks like an early signal of the risks around revenue projections, especially as Nigeria keeps missing output targets due to theft and weak investment.

On spending priorities, defence and security take the largest share with ₦5.41 trillion, showing the scale of insecurity across the country. Infrastructure follows with ₦3.56 trillion, while education and health receive ₦3.52 trillion and ₦2.48 trillion respectively. 

Though higher than last year’s figures, education spending still falls short of global benchmarks that recommend 15 to 20% of total budgets.

Tinubu told lawmakers that the document goes beyond bookkeeping. “They are a statement of national priorities,” he said. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value-for-money spending.”

Security featured prominently in his remarks, against the backdrop of kidnappings and violent attacks in several regions. “Security remains the foundation of development,” the president said, outlining plans that include modernising the armed forces, intelligence-led policing, tighter border control and technology-driven surveillance. 

He added: “We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes, because security spending must deliver security results.”

The president also returned to the economic reforms that impacted his first months in office, fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange liberalisation, policies that pushed inflation higher. 

More than two years on, Tinubu argued that the worst is over. “I acknowledge these difficulties plainly, and I assure Nigerians that their sacrifices are not in vain,” he said. “The path of reform is seldom smooth, but it is the surest route to lasting stability and shared prosperity.”

Agriculture and food security are another focus of the 2026 budget, Tinubu described them as strategic areas capable of pulling in private investment and easing pressure on households.

“Food security is national security,” he said. “The 2026 Budget prioritises input financing and mechanisation; irrigation and climate-resilient agriculture; storage and processing; and agro-value chains.”

Analysts see strengths and cracks in equal measure. Higher capital spending and bigger allocations to security, schools and hospitals point to good intent. 

But the scale of borrowing, growing debt expenses and optimistic oil assumptions lead to questions about execution.