The National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) December 2025 CPI Report showed the decline represents a 2.18% point decrease year-on-year.

The report disclosed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 131.2 points in December 2025, up by 0.7 points from 130.5 recorded in November 2025.

On a year-on-year basis, the December 2025 headline inflation rate was 19.65% points lower than the rate recorded in December 2024 (34.80%).

This shows a sharp decline compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, although measured with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.

On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate stood at 0.54% in December 2025, which is 0.69% points less than the rate recorded in November 2025 (1.22%).

This shows that the pace of increase in the average price level slowed in December.

Urban Inflation

As indicated by the report, on a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate in December 2025 stood at 14.85%, down from 37.29% in December 2024. while on a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate rose to 0.99%, up by 0.03% from November 2025 (0.95%).

The corresponding twelve-month average for the Urban inflation rate was 23.46%.

Rural Inflation

As stated by the report, the Rural inflation rate in December 2025 stood at 14.56% on a year-on-year basis from 32.47% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the rate declined to -0.55%, down by 2.43% compared to November 2025 (1.88%).

In addition, the corresponding twelve-month average for the Rural inflation rate in December 2025 was 21.93%.

Core Inflation

The NBS December 2025 CPI Report explained that the Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 18.63% in December 2025 on a year-on-year basis from 29.28% in December 2024, while on a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate was 0.58%, down by 0.7% compared to November 2025 (1.28%).

The average twelve-month annual inflation rate stood at 23.49% for the twelve months ending December 2025.

All Items Inflation

The report noted that in December 2025, the All-Items inflation rate on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Abia (19.03%), Ogun (18.80%), and Katsina (18.66%), while Sokoto (8.61%), Plateau (9.05%), and Kaduna (10.38%) recorded the lowest rise in Headline inflation on a Year-on-Year basis.

On a Month-on-Month basis, however, December 2025 recorded the highest increases in Cross River (3.11%), Abia (2.63%), and Delta (2.53%), while Ondo (3.74%), Gombe (3.02%), and Jigawa (1.96%) recorded a decline in the Month-on-Month inflation.

Food Inflation

The report revealed that in December 2025, Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Yobe (15.25%), Ogun (14.12%), and Abuja (13.24%), while Akwa Ibom (4.34%), Sokoto (4.62%), and Plateau (6.19%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis.

On a Month-on-Month basis, however, December 2025 Food inflation was highest in Imo (3.19%), Nasarawa (3.16%), and Yobe (1.18%), while Plateau (2.76%), Rivers (2.50%), and Zamfara (1.93%) recorded a decline in Food inflation on a Month-on-Month basis.

The country’s headline inflation rate declined Month-on-Month from 18.02% in September 2025 to 16.05% in October 2025, a 1.97%.

On a Year-on-Year basis, the inflation rate fell to 16.05% in October 2025 from 33.88% recorded in October 2024, revealing a significant reduction compared to the same period last year.  

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures changes in the average prices of goods and services, rose to 128.9 basis points in October 2025, up from 127.7 basis points in September 2025, indicating a 1.2 point increase.

Nigeria’s CPI growth rate, however, decreased from 32.26% in October 2024 to 10.24% in October 2025.

Urban Inflation closed at 15.65% Year-on-Year and 1.14% Month-on-Month, while rural inflation closed at 15.86% Year-on-Year and 0.45% Month-on-Month.

For the Combined rural and urban State CPI on a Year-on-Year basis, Ekiti, Nasarawa and Zamfara recorded the highest increases in all-items inflation rate at 20.14%, 18.97%, and 18.81% respectively. Bauchi, Anambra, and Gombe recorded the lowest increases at 9.99%, 11.72%, and 11.73%.

On a Month-on-Month basis, Niger and Anambra recorded the highest rise in all-items inflation rate at 4.90%, each, followed by Enugu at 4.72%.

Edo, Kastina, and Adamawa recorded the lowest Month-on-Month changes with -4%, -3.26%, and -3.10% respectively.

For Nigeria’s food inflation in October 2025, Ogun, Nasarawa, and Ekiti recorded the highest Year-on-Year increases at 20.85%, 19.96%, and 19.70%. Akwa Ibom, Kastina, and Yobe posted 3.98%, 4.15%, and 4.29%.

Month-on-Month food inflation was highest in Bauchi (6.77%), the FCT (5.11%), and Niger (4.84%), while Kastina (-7.72%), Oyo (-5.89%), and Taraba (-4.89%) recorded the biggest decline. 

The CPI rose to 125.9 in July from 123.4 in June, reflecting a 2.5-point increase. Year-on-year, inflation dropped sharply by 11.52 percentage points from 33.40% in July 2024. However, month-on-month, headline inflation climbed to 1.99%, up from 1.68% in June, indicating a faster pace of price increases.

Urban inflation stood at 22.01% year-on-year, down from 35.77% in July 2024. Food inflation eased to 22.74% year-on-year, 16.79 percentage points lower than the 39.53% recorded a year earlier. On a monthly basis, food inflation fell slightly to 3.12% from 3.25% in June, largely due to lower prices of key items such as vegetable oil, local rice, and maize flour.

By state, Borno (34.52%), Niger (27.18%), and Benue (25.73%) recorded the highest year-on-year inflation rates, while Yobe (11.43%), Zamfara (12.75%), and Katsina (15.64%) posted the lowest. Month-on-month, Borno (6.11%), Zamfara (5.72%), and Kano (4.31%) saw the steepest increases, while Bauchi (0.26%), Katsina (0.30%), and Anambra (0.37%) recorded the smallest rises.

Top-tier data, including US Inflation, the unofficial start of earnings season, and US Congress “Crypto Week,” among other themes, could spell fresh opportunities.

Amidst this, uncertainty over global trade will add to the mix after President Donald Trump threatened 35% tariffs on the EU and Mexico over the weekend.

Regarding US inflation, this may impact bets around Fed cuts in the second half of this year. Markets are forecasting CPI to rise 2.6% from 2.4% in the prior month, with core CPI rising to 2.9% from 2.8%. Signs of rising prices may shave bets around the Fed cutting interest rates – boosting the dollar as a result.

Closer to home, Nigeria’s June CPI data due July 15 is expected to show signs of cooling inflationary pressures.

This could offer some relief to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) which aggressively hiked interest rates throughout 2024.

Inflation (in Nigeria) is expected to have eased to 21.4% year-on-year from 23% in May – marking the 4th consecutive month of decline.

However, the slowdown is largely a technical adjustment aided by the recent gains in the Naira amid higher non-oil exports and a weaker dollar.

The CBN is scheduled to meet later this month and will most likely keep rates unchanged at 27.5%.

One key challenge for the country will be how to re-tweak its budget for lower oil prices. Indeed, the budget was based around oil production at 2 million barrels and oil prices of $75.

Brent is trading around $70 with the nation producing 1.544m b/d of crude in May according to OPEC. Nigeria is hoping to raise production to 1.9m b/d by the end of 2025.

But its impact on the economy may be muted if oversupply and tepid demand keep oil prices subdued. Brent is up 4% this month but still down over 6% since the start of 2025.

Governor Olayemi Cardoso made the announcement on Tuesday, confirming that the decision was unanimous among committee members. 

Alongside the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for commercial banks remains fixed at 50%, while mortgage banks continue with 16%. The Liquidity Ratio (LR) stays at 30%, and the asymmetric corridor remains unchanged at +500/-100 basis points around the MPR.

This decision is coming against the backdrop of slightly improving inflation figures. Nigeria’s inflation rate eased to 23.7% in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That figure, though still high, provided a narrow window for policymakers to pause further tightening.

Cardoso offered a measured explanation for the committee’s choice: “The committee unanimously agreed to retain MPR at 27.50 percent.” The rationale, he said, was based on ongoing economic adjustments and the need to consolidate recent gains.

This pause is a cautious departure from a series of previous hikes. Since mid-2023, the CBN has steadily increased rates in a bid to fight inflation and manage currency volatility. The current move, while conservative, signals a wait-and-see approach amid fragile macroeconomic conditions.

We’re also watching the naira. As of last week, the official exchange rate hovered around N1,598.72 per dollar, with the parallel market offering slightly worse at N1,635. This narrowing gap is one of the few indicators suggesting some stability, though risks remain.

Inflation is the major concern. Food prices continue to stretch household incomes, and insecurity in food-producing states only complicates matters. “Members, however, were not oblivious to the risk of persisting inflationary pressures driven largely by food prices,” Cardoso said at the briefing.

From where we stand, it’s obvious that the CBN is trying to strike a balance. They’re holding the line, hoping that prior policies begin to bite, but also ready to act again if inflation refuses to budge. The decision to maintain high reserve requirements for banks also sends a strong message, liquidity will be tightly managed.

In plain terms, the CBN is being careful. There’s no rush to ease. No gamble. Just methodical restraint in the hope that inflation softens, the currency strengthens, and confidence returns.

The next MPC meeting is expected to take place in the coming weeks. By then, we’ll have fresh inflation numbers, a better sense of GDP growth, and perhaps a clearer picture of how long this high-interest-rate environment can be sustained.

This surge is a blow to household incomes and the economy at large.

The NBS report reveals that food inflation, a major contributor to headline inflation, rose to 21.79% year-on-year in March 2025. 

This increase is attributed to high prices of staple food items like ginger, garri, and rice. Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, also climbed to 24.43% year-on-year.

A closer look at the data shows a noticeable divergence between urban and rural inflation rates. Urban inflation stood at 26.12% year-on-year, while rural inflation was 20.89%. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation rose by 3.96%, compared to 2.40% in February.

Experts in the field have said the March inflation reading resulted from opposing forces, including moderating and upward factors. 

Samuel Oyekanmi, head of Research at Norrenberger, noted that the constant effect of rebasing and favourable base effects are expected to exert a moderating influence.

However, he warns that the depreciation of the naira and increase in petrol prices could raise costs across transport and goods.

“The continued effect of rebasing and favourable base effects are expected to exert a moderating influence,” Oyekanmi said.

The surge in inflation could put more pressure on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to tighten monetary policy further. Analysts expect the CBN to introduce liquidity management measures to support the currency and contain inflation expectations.

The outlook for Nigeria’s inflation rate reveals potential upside risks from electricity tariff adjustments and geopolitical disruptions to global supply chains.

Meristem projects inflation to stay within the 20-24% band through mid-year, pointing to expected stability in energy prices and a slower pace of naira depreciation.

The latest figure, according to The Witness report, also represents the sixth consecutive increase in the headline index this year.

This is according to the recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July 2023 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The jump comes on the back of removal of petrol subsidies and the unification/devaluation of the official exchange rate.

Notably, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate stood at 2.89% in July which was 0.76% higher than the rate recorded in June 2023 (2.13%).

In terms of contribution to the year-on-year inflation, Food and non-alcoholic beverages (12.47%) contributed the most, followed by housing water, electricity, gas and other fuel (4.03%), and clothing and footwear (1.84%).

Food inflation

The Food inflation rate rose to 26.98% in July 2023, representing a 1.73%-point increase from 25.25% recorded in the previous month and 4.97% points higher than 22.02% recorded in the corresponding period of 2022.

On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in July 2023 was 3.45%, this was 1.06% higher compared to the rate recorded in June 2023 (2.4%).

The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve-month ending July 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 24.46%, which was 5.71% points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in July 2022 (18.75%).

The rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of oil and fat, bread and cereals, fish, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fruits, meat, vegetable, milk, cheese, and eggs.

Core inflation

The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 20.47% in July 2023 on a year-on-year basis; up by 4.41% when compared to the 16.06% recorded in July 2022.

On a month-on-month basis, the Core inflation rate was 2.11% in July 2023. It stood at 1.77% in June 2023, up by 0.34%.

The average twelve-month annual inflation rate was 18.84% for the twelve-month ending July 2023; this was 4.31% points higher than the 14.53% recorded in July 2022.

Expert’s View:

Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM had predicted that “with the inflation beast drawing strength from rising food prices, transportation, and import costs, it is forecast to tick even higher for July. Ultimately, persistent signs of rising inflation may force the Central Bank of Nigeria to act once again at its next policy meeting in September”.