Expanding finances for businesses across key sectors of the economy, the company also plans to deploy about ₦500 billion over the next 18 months to support growth-ready businesses in agriculture, healthcare, manufacturing, energy, logistics, and technology.

This was revealed at the 2026 edition of the Zedvance Business Roundtable, where business leaders, entrepreneurs, financiers and experts across the industry gathered to discuss how smarter financing models can strengthen businesses and unlock long-term economic growth.

The event, themed “Unlocking Growth: The Role of Smart Financing in Building Resilient Businesses,” reiterated a belief that access to the right capital, delivered through an accurate understanding of industries and business ecosystems, will be highly indispensable in bolstering Nigeria’s next phase of economic development.

In his welcome address, Adebayo Amzat, group managing director of Zedcrest Group, said the company’s focus on SMEs is rooted in their importance to the economy at large.

“Zedvance is here to do major business in the SME space across every vertical,” he said, adding that financing small businesses is one of the most effective ways to create economic impact because SMEs employ people, support local supply chains and drive activity across multiple sectors.

Amzat explained that Zedvance’s lending model is designed around ecosystems rather than isolated transactions, allowing businesses within different sectors to support overall portfolio stability.

“We don’t like transactions, we like businesses,” he said while encouraging entrepreneurs to maintain proper records, build sustainable value and operate businesses that can show track records over time.

Zedvance is directing capital towards productive sectors where financing can generate huge economic benefits, and the company plans to deploy ₦500 billion over the next 18 months in a bid to strengthen support for businesses that are ready to scale.

Amzat further explained that the objective goes beyond profitability. “Why are we doing all of this? We do not think profit is the only objective, or is the most important objective. We think that our work, first and foremost, is to increase the size of the pie,” he said.

He also highlighted the services within the Zedcrest Group, noting that businesses can access debt financing, private equity, wealth management and investment banking services through the group’s various subsidiaries.

According to him, the goal is to ensure that promising businesses can obtain the capital they need at different stages of growth.

One of the takeaways from the roundtable was that financing alone is not enough. Businesses also need trust-based partnerships, operational discipline and sector expertise.

During the agribusiness and healthcare session, experts examined the challenges businesses face in accessing timely financing and the role strategic partnerships can play in helping companies scale.

The conversation highlighted how responsive financing can strengthen supply chains, improve business confidence and enable companies to seize opportunities when they arise.

Speakers agreed that long-term growth is built on integrity, transparency and relationships that extend beyond individual transactions.

Attention later turned to the energy sector, where discussions focused on the increasing demand for financing solutions that can support renewable energy, electric mobility and decentralised power infrastructure.

Experts noted that access to capital will be critical to driving innovation across the sector, particularly as businesses and households seek reliable and cost-effective energy alternatives.

The session also explored how flexible financing models can reduce limitations to adoption by reducing upfront costs and making clean energy technologies more accessible.

With demand growing continuously, the panel pointed to significant opportunities for investment across the energy value chain, particularly in areas capable of improving productivity and reducing operating expenses for businesses.

Across both sessions, a key takeaway was that businesses thrive when financing is tailored to the specific dynamics of their industries rather than delivered through a one-size-fits-all approach.

From agriculture and healthcare to manufacturing, logistics, energy and technology, speakers stressed the importance of funding solutions that show the unique needs and growth cycles of each sector.

Zedvance is supporting businesses with the capital, expertise and long-term partnerships needed to build resilience and unlock growth through its SME lending scheme. This aligns with the needs of Nigerian businesses facing economic challenges in the sector.

With the right financing and the right partners, growth is still within reach.

Documents obtained from the World Bank show the cancellation followed a formal request from the Federal Government.

Both parties agreed to discontinue the remaining financing under the Power Sector Recovery Performance-Based Operation after key reform targets failed to materialise.

The decision also brings the programme to an earlier close. Its end date was moved from June 30, 2027, to May 31, 2026.

According to the restructuring document, “The restructuring will result in the cancellation of the entire undisbursed balance in the amount of $717.7 million equivalent, and no further disbursements will be made under the Program following approval of this restructuring.”

The programme was introduced in 2020 as part of efforts to restore financial stability in Nigeria’s electricity sector, improve power supply and reduce the industry’s dependence on government support.

At the start, the World Bank approved about $752.5 million for the initiative. Three years later, after early reforms showed some progress, the bank approved an additional financing package of roughly $763.5 million to extend the programme and deepen reforms across the sector.

Together, both facilities were worth around $1.52 billion.

Still, the additional financing package struggled almost from the beginning.

The World Bank said the fall of the naira after the foreign exchange market liberalisation in June 2023 significantly raised electricity generation costs because gas prices are tied to the US dollar.

More than 70% of electricity supplied into Nigeria’s national grid comes from gas-fired plants.

At the same time, electricity tariffs were largely unchanged for most consumers. Only Band A customers saw tariff adjustments in April 2024.

That gap between high production costs and revenues collected from consumers widened rapidly.

According to the World Bank, tariff shortfalls climbed from N140 billion in 2022 to about N1.9 trillion annually in both 2024 and 2025.

The bank said the growing deficits placed heavy pressure on government finances and weakened the reform programme.

“Due to the mismatch between the electricity generation costs and the sector tariff revenues, the tariff shortfalls increased sharply in the last 3 years, moving from a low of N140bn in 2022 to a high of N1.9tn per year in 2024 and 2025, putting serious pressure on the limited Federal Government of Nigeria’s fiscal space,” the report stated.

The World Bank also pointed to deeper structural problems in the electricity sector, including weak performance by distribution companies, transmission bottlenecks, underused generation capacity, poor cost recovery, and high technical and commercial losses.

Those problems slowed implementation and made it difficult for Nigeria to meet conditions tied to further disbursements.

The bank said authorities failed to establish a credible financing framework capable of reducing tariff deficits over time.

“Recent financing plans have not fully identified sufficient sources of funding to cover tariff shortfalls, nor established a credible trajectory for their reduction,” the report stated.

Even so, the original phase of the programme achieved some measurable results before conditions worsened.

The World Bank said tariff shortfalls dropped by 71% between 2019 and 2022, falling from N581 billion to N166 billion.

Regulatory cost recovery improved from 56% to 94% during the same period, while electricity supplied to distribution companies increased by 13% between 2018 and 2021.

These encouraged the bank to approve additional financing in 2023.

However, implementation later stalled. The World Bank said none of the global indicators tied to the additional financing arrangement were achieved.

It also downgraded implementation progress under the programme to “Moderately Unsatisfactory.”

Financial records in the restructuring document show that only about 9% of the additional financing package was eventually disbursed.

Out of the programme’s total commitment of roughly $1.52 billion, around $796 million had been released before the cancellation, leaving $717.7 million undrawn.

The World Bank concluded that the programme’s structure no longer matched realities in Nigeria’s power sector.

“Taken together, these developments point to a misalignment between the design of the operation and the evolving implementation context,” the report stated.

The cancellation comes days after the Accountant-General of the Federation, Dr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, warned that Nigeria could reconsider future World Bank loan arrangements if approval and disbursement delays continue.

Speaking during a meeting with a World Bank delegation in Abuja, Ogunjimi said Nigeria should not face long delays in accessing funds tied to development projects because the facilities are loans, not grants.

He said, “If approvals take more than six months, the Nigerian Government may no longer honour such arrangements.”

Ogunjimi also urged the World Bank to speed up approvals and disbursements to support Nigeria’s development priorities.

New figures released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed the economy grew faster than the 3.13% recorded in the same period of 2025. 

Still, growth slowed slightly from the 3.99% posted in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The report points to resilience in the non-oil sector, even as crude oil production weakened during the quarter.

Agriculture recorded one of the strongest improvements. The sector grew by 3.15% in real terms, compared with just 0.07% in the first quarter of last year. Crop production was the biggest driver within the sector.

Services were the largest part of the economy, contributing 57.73% to total GDP. The sector expanded by 4.31% during the quarter, although that was slightly below the 4.33% growth recorded a year earlier.

Industry also improved moderately, growing by 3.50% from 3.42% in the corresponding period of 2025.

Nigeria’s non-oil sector continued to carry most of the economy. According to the NBS, the sector grew by 3.94% in real terms and accounted for 96.08% of total GDP in the quarter.

Telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial institutions, real estate, construction and road transport were among the sectors that supported growth.

Telecommunications was one of the strongest performers. Information and communication activities grew by 10.98% year-on-year and contributed 11.31% to real GDP, higher than the 10.59% recorded in the same quarter of 2025.

Trade contributed 17.89% to real GDP, while real estate accounted for 13.10%. The finance and insurance sector grew by 8.54%, and construction expanded by 6.38%.

In nominal terms, the country’s GDP stood at N110.79 trillion in the first quarter of 2026. That represents a 17.79% increase from the N94.05 trillion recorded in the same period last year.

Oil production, however, was under stress. Average daily crude oil output fell to 1.55 million barrels per day, lower than the 1.62 million barrels per day recorded in the first quarter of 2025. Production also dropped slightly from the 1.58 million barrels per day posted in the previous quarter.

Even with weaker output, the oil sector still recorded real growth of 2.57%, up from 1.87% a year earlier. Its contribution to total real GDP stood at 3.92%, slightly below the 3.97% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

The report also showed mixed performances across other sectors. Arts, entertainment and recreation recorded strong growth of 11.25%. On the other hand, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply contracted by 15.30% in real terms.

Education growth slowed to 1.22%, down from 2.47% in the same period last year.

Nigeria is currently dealing with high inflation, expensive living costs and pressure on household spending. Inflation has remained above 15% despite ongoing reforms aimed at stabilising the economy.

Since 2025, the federal government has pushed ahead with policies including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and fiscal reforms as it tries to strengthen public finances and attract investment.

Compared with some African economies, Nigeria’s latest GDP growth figure placed it ahead of South Africa, where growth slowed to 1.9% in the same period. Ghana recorded 3.5% growth in the first quarter of 2026.

The commission said businesses must seek approval where a merger or acquisition meets the thresholds set under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act (FCCPA) 2018.

According to the FCCPC, the law gives it power to review transactions, approve them with or without conditions, or block them where necessary.

It said the requirement covers several forms of business combinations. These include share purchases, asset acquisitions, joint ventures and other arrangements that fall within the legal definition of a merger.

The commission explained that prior notification allows it to examine whether a proposed deal could weaken competition in any market in Nigeria or create public interest issues.

It added that the process also helps regulators track market developments and understand how competition is changing across industries.

The FCCPC urged businesses and their advisers to approach the commission early if a planned transaction may require notification.

It said early engagement, including pre-notification consultations where needed, can give parties more certainty, speed up reviews and help them meet legal obligations.

The regulator also issued a warning on non-compliance.

“The FCCPC emphasises that failure to notify a notifiable transaction constitutes a contravention of the FCCPA and shall attract stiff penalties and other enforcement actions.”

It advised parties to take all necessary steps before implementing transactions that fall within its jurisdiction.

The commission asked stakeholders seeking clarification on the mergers and acquisitions regulations to contact the FCCPC or visit its website.

It added that it is fully committed to promoting fair competition, protecting consumers and supporting a transparent business environment in Nigeria.

And in that same year, Nigeria recorded roughly 7.9 billion real-time digital payment transactions.

But now, in late 2025, something curious is happening. About half of Nigerian SMEs, once heavily cash-dependent, now rely on fintech platforms for their core business banking needs including payroll, payments, cashflow, and even basic credit.

I usually find myself asking, is this true financial inclusion or is it just an elegant, digital rebrand of the same old inefficiencies?

How We Got Here: Building the Rails (2010–2025)

Mobile Money Era (2010–2015)

Back then, mobile money meant USSD codes and agents. Quick person-to-person transfers. For many Nigerians, especially those outside major cities, this was a breakthrough. 

It brought, for the first time, a way to move money without visiting a bank branch. But the system had some limits, minimal functionality. Saving, loans, invoicing, these were mostly out of reach.

Fintech Explosion (2016–2020)

Smartphones became more common. Fintech apps began providing wallets, easy payments, and basic services. The idea of cashless started to stick. Entrepreneurs could now send payments, collect revenues, and do business without stacks of naira notes.

But still, bookkeeping was manual, payroll was offline, credit was almost nonexistent for most small businesses. Many SMEs operated in hybrid mode, some digital payments, but plenty of paper bills, manual ledgers, cash-in-hand.

Cloud-Native Finance (2021–2025)

The last few years changed things more radically. Rather than just payments, SMEs now get banking-as-a-service: invoices, payroll, reconciliations, lending, expense tracking, all via APIs and cloud tools. Digital banking isn’t just consumer-facing anymore, it’s business-native.

Fintech companies have proliferated. By early 2025, there were over 430 fintech firms operating in Nigeria, a 68% increase from 2024. The convenience is real, apps onboard fast, many offer light KYC, and services are usually cheaper than traditional banks.

Now, SMEs can run near-full financial operations online. No “bank visits once a month.” No “cash purchased and moved by hand.” Everything runs digitally.

The SME Reality in 2025: What’s Actually Happening

• According to a 2025 index by Mastercard, 99% of Nigerian SMEs now accept digital payments.
• Around 50% of SMEs now rely on fintech platforms for banking functions such as collections, payroll, cash-flow management, and occasionally lending.
• Among SMEs that were “cash-only” not too long ago, 76% say they plan to invest in new payment technologies.
• Many SME owners say digital payments improved customer experience, reduced downtime, and cut reliance on physical cash, which can be risky or cumbersome.

In short, digital finance is no longer a nice-to-have add-on. It’s now core to how many small businesses operate.

That transition should matter at the macroeconomic level. More efficient SMEs mean faster transactions, better record-keeping, easier scaling. Tax authorities get better visibility. Credit providers get cleaner data. Growth becomes more traceable.

Inclusion or Efficiency

Financial inclusion, yes, but how deep?

Digital payments have made it easier to transact. SMEs can receive payments, pay suppliers, and manage cash with less issues. For many micro and small businesses, that’s a big leap from cash-only days.

But inclusion isn’t only about access. Factual inclusion should mean affordability, reliability, and long-term economic mobility. That’s where things get murkier.

The catch behind the convenience

• Transaction expenses is real. Digital or not, fees accrue. For many small businesses, those add up. Over time, the burden may shift from the consumer to the business.
• Platform lock-in. Once an SME is embedded in a fintech ecosystem, made up of payments, bookkeeping, maybe even credit, switching becomes expensive. That wears away competition.
• Credit is still a weak point. Having a digital footprint doesn’t guarantee good credit. Many small firms lack the data history institutions need to underwrite loans at reasonable rates.
• Infrastructure gaps are still there. In many regions, connectivity is poor. Power outages, network failures, or USSD downtime wipe out the benefits. For those on the margins, rural SMEs, women-led SMEs and informal traders, digital finance may be inaccessible or unreliable.
• Digital tools don’t automatically solve structural problems like inflation, currency instability, lack of collateral, supply-chain fragility, or regulatory unpredictability.

So while many SMEs may now have the tools, whether those tools become stability, growth, and resilience is still up for discussion.

Digitising Old Inefficiencies; A Reality Check

Digital finance has simplified many processes. But in many cases, it has simply transformed old inefficiencies into new ones.

Fragmented infrastructure. Multiple fintech platforms, each with its own policy, fees, limits, and downtime. For an SME juggling several services, integration becomes messy.

Costs are burdensome. Many SMEs now pay for digital services such as payment processing, inventory tools, subscription-based bookkeeping or payroll apps. Over time, these expenses chip away at margins.

Credit and liquidity still constrained. Digital transaction history doesn’t always translate to creditworthiness. Few fintech platforms provide noteworthy working capital at scale, and traditional lenders remain sceptical.

Regulation, compliance, and hesitation. The regulatory environment is still growing. Licensing, compliance, data protection, KYC requirements, these can be blockers for many small operators.

Infrastructure risk. Network instability, power issues, SIM-swap fraud, or downtime can affect a business that relies solely on digital rails.

In effect, digital finance has made SMEs look and feel more formal. But the economic engines that drive growth, stable credit, reliable infrastructure, competitive markets, are still uneven and weak.

Macroeconomic Impact: Progress and Risks

Where we see real positive effects

• Transaction visibility & formalisation: More SMEs are traceable, easier for regulators and tax authorities to monitor economic activity. That could enlarge the tax base and improve revenue.
• Lower transaction friction: Digital payments are faster, more reliable, and often safer than cash, reducing costs tied to logistics, theft, and cash handling.
• Enhanced operational efficiency: For SMEs, digital bookkeeping, payroll, supplier payments help save time, freeing up mental bandwidth and resources.
• Potential for data-driven credit and growth tools: Over time, digital footprints may allow lenders to design better credit products, supply-chain financing, or working-capital services.
• Job and sector growth: Fintech companies, mobile agents, and digital payment ecosystems create employment beyond traditional banking.

But there are still risks of systemic inefficiency

• Platform dependency & monopolisation: If a few fintech companies top the space, small businesses lose bargaining power. Costs may stay high; switching platforms may be hard.
• Hidden cost burden: What seems “free” or “cheap” can accumulate; transaction fees, subscription fees, float charges, digital-service fees. Over time, small margins can be worn away.
• Financial exclusion for the most vulnerable: Those without stable internet, smartphones, or digital literacy, rural traders, older entrepreneurs, women-led businesses, may be left out.
• Regulatory & systemic risk: Without consistent regulation and oversight, fraud, downtime, or misuse of data can harm trust, and erode inclusion gains.
• Economic fragility: Digital finance doesn’t solve macro problems like inflation, currency volatility, poor infrastructure, or supply-chain instability. Without comprehensive reforms, many SMEs will continually be vulnerable.

What Must Change for Real Inclusion (Not Just Digitisation)

To move from “neat digital rails” to “stable economic engines,” we need more than apps.

• Interoperability & open standards. Fintech platforms, banks, regulators must agree on shared protocols. SMEs shouldn’t be locked into a single ecosystem.
• Transparent pricing & fair fees. Digital services must be affordable and predictable, not exploitative over time.
• Solid infrastructure. Reliable power, broadband, especially outside megacities, needs serious investment. Otherwise, digital tools will remain an urban luxury.
• Tailored SME credit products. Lenders need to trust digital histories and build flexible credit that matches SME cash flow cycles.
• Digital literacy & support for underserved entrepreneurs. Training, especially for rural and informal entrepreneurs, to ensure access isn’t limited to the urban, educated elite.
• Regulatory clarity and consumer/SME protection. Data protection, fair-use terms, oversight against fraud, these must be standard.
• Holistic economic reforms. Currency stability, inflation control, reliable supply-chain infrastructure, these foundational issues can’t be ignored.

What the Next Five Years Could Bring, if We Get It Right

If we address these gaps, the next half-decade might truly change SME finance in Nigeria:

• Cloud-based “business operating systems”, invoice to payment to payroll to credit in a single workflow.
• Embedded credit and supply-chain financing tailored to SMEs’ cash flow realities.
• Real-time payments are becoming the default, even for micro-transactions and informal economy players.
• Data-driven loan underwritings, allowing micro-businesses to grow without collateral.
• Greater formalisation, more SMEs in the tax net; better regulation; more visibility for policy-makers.
• Growth of SMEs beyond survival mode, longer-term capital investment, expansion, jobs creation.

But if we don’t fix current weaknesses, there’d be high costs, infrastructure gaps, platform lock-in, this digital transition risks becoming another layer of friction, not liberation.

A New Financial Skeleton, But Are We Building a True Body?

Digital finance in Nigeria has built a sturdy skeleton. Payments flow, accounts exist, many SMEs operate online. That is progress. Profound progress, even.

But a skeleton alone does not make a human being. For actual economic inclusion, for SMEs to grow securely and sustainably, we need flesh, muscles, stable credit, fair pricing, infrastructure, regulation, inclusion for the marginalised.

I believe digital finance brings a huge turnaround. But a promise alone isn’t enough. If we’re honest, we must ask: are we building a new financial fate for SMEs or simply repackaging old systems with a shinier interface?

Because if we don’t fix the in-depth structural problems, the only thing we’ll have done is made inefficiency look digital.

But in 2025, the tables have turned. The ‘Giant of Africa’ now looks like the continent’s middle child, still the great startup hub, but subtly losing attention.

Across Africa, startups have raised about $2.2 billion in funding so far this year, through September. It’s not a bad figure, in fact, it shows a comeback after 2024’s sluggish performance. 

But Nigeria’s share of that pot is behind. Once the darling of venture capital, the country now follows Kenya, South Africa, and Egypt behind in investor flow and deal flow. We could say this decline reveals cracks in policy, perception, and predictability.

The Numbers

Let’s look at the facts. In the third quarter of 2025, African startups collectively pulled in hundreds of millions, a steady rebound from the funding winter of 2023-2024.

September alone saw between $140 million and $160 million in disclosed deals, a strong 430% recovery from August’s slump. South Africa topped with roughly $64 million, followed by Nigeria’s $44 million, Kenya’s $22 million, and Egypt’s $15 million.

Yes, Nigeria ranked second that month, but context matters. A single month’s uptick doesn’t reverse a year-long slide. The $44 million figure looks good until you recall that just two years ago, Nigeria regularly attracted over 40% of Africa’s total venture capital. Today, that has thinned, the rebound is real, but the lead is gone.

It’s not that Nigeria didn’t have highlights. Lagos-based Kredete closed a $22 million Series A round, one of the continent’s biggest in the month. But a handful of bright spots cannot disguise the bigger difference. Nigeria’s once-dominant startup sector is now fighting for air.

Why the Slide? The Risk Equation

There’s no single villain here. It’s a mix of currency challenges, policy inconsistency, and investor fatigue.

1. Currency Risk and FX Instability
Let’s start with the obvious, the naira. Investors hate surprises, and Nigeria’s currency offers plenty. A venture capitalist can invest $5 million today and see its real value drop by a quarter within months. For startups, it’s a nightmare: revenues in naira, debts in dollars, and no way to plan beyond next quarter.

Currency instability doesn’t just kill profit margins; it kills patience.

2. Regulatory Whiplash
One month, a fintech is celebrated for innovation; the next, it’s hit with a compliance directive or policy change that halts operations. The Central Bank’s unpredictable stance on digital assets, tax laws, and banking limits has left founders second-guessing the next move. For investors, unpredictability is more frightening than failure, you can’t plan for confusion.

3. Investor Confidence Erosion
Venture capital is about risk, but it’s also about trust. And Nigeria’s perception problem runs deep. The inflation rate, the liquidity problem of 2024, and the fear of policy reversals have pushed many funds to look elsewhere.

Kenya’s climate-tech growth looks more predictable. Egypt’s structured reforms provide clearer returns. South Africa’s venture-debt model gives investors better exit options. In comparison, Nigeria? Quite unstable.

4. Cost and Infrastructure Burden

Even the best Nigerian startups fight a heavier battle. Cost of power bites into margins, logistics are inconsistent, and security concerns increase overheads. The same $5 million that can comfortably sustain a startup in Nairobi or Cairo barely covers the basics in Lagos. Investors see this, and they price it in, or calmly move their money elsewhere.

5. Lack of Exit Opportunities

And then there’s the silence after success. Since Paystack’s 2020 acquisition, Nigeria has produced few visible exits. No IPOs, no major mergers, no new liquidity events. For investors, that’s a red flag. Without an exit, even the best-performing portfolio company becomes a waiting game. Venture capital doesn’t thrive on patience, it thrives on movement.

Meanwhile, Elsewhere in Africa…

Kenya, Egypt, and South Africa have been rebalancing the equation.

Kenya has turned climate-tech into a national asset. Its policy environment rewards clean-energy startups and provides tax incentives that attract green investors. 

Egypt, after years of reforms, now has one of the most transparent startup ecosystems on the continent. Its currency stabilisation plan and government support for digital infrastructure are winning back foreign confidence.

South Africa, on the other hand, plays a more sophisticated game. Its venture-debt market gives startups more flexibility and gives investors partial liquidity, a balance Nigeria still hasn’t mastered. 

Together, these hubs have built something Nigeria once had, predictability.

Reclaiming the Edge: What Nigeria Must Do Next

The thing is that Nigeria still has the best talent pool in Africa. Its entrepreneurs are fearless, resourceful, and globally aware. Innovation isn’t the problem; the system is.

To get back in the game of venture capital investment, Nigeria needs credibility, the kind that comes from action, not announcements.

1. Ensure FX Stability:
   A predictable currency policy restores trust faster than any PR campaign.
2. Create a Transparent Regulatory Environment:
   Investors can live with tough regulations, they can’t live with arbitrary ones. Nigeria must fix its fintech and crypto regulatory frameworks if it wants long-term funding.
3. Mobilise Local Capital:
   Pension funds, sovereign wealth vehicles, and high-net-worth individuals must be encouraged to fund innovation. Relying solely on foreign dollars is a risk in itself, unsustainable.
4. Build Exit Pipeline:
   Encourage IPOs, mergers, and acquisitions. When investors see others cash out, they come back, fast.
5. Fix the Basics:
   Energy, internet reliability, and logistics are not “startup issues”, they’re national competitiveness issues. Solving them will reduce risk and attract fresh capital.
6. Promote Investor Dialogue:
   Nigeria’s public and private sectors need to start speaking the same language. Investors hate surprises more than they hate losses.

The venture capital hasn’t left Africa; it’s just gotten pickier, and Nigeria has to earn trust again. The ideas, the founders, the products, they’re all here. What’s missing is a sense that the system itself won’t betray them.

If Nigeria can steady its currency, clean up its regulations, and show genuine respect for investor logic, its startup sector will recover faster than many expect.

Investors go where stability lives. If Nigeria can steady its policy, stabilise its currency, and show a consistent commitment to reform, its startup sector would reignite, with more venture capital investments.

The country is on the verge of significant transformation, driven by the bold reforms and innovative economic strategies implemented during President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s first term.

This period is not just one of political change; it represents a crucial moment in Nigeria’s history, where today’s decisions will have lasting impacts on future generations.

The environment is charged with the promise of progress and hope, illuminating the path toward a brighter tomorrow.

The Seeding Season: Reforms That Reshaped the Landscape

President Tinubu’s first term was marked by a series of transformative reforms designed to tackle long-standing inefficiencies within the Nigerian economy.

One of the most significant actions taken by his administration was the strategic removal of the fuel subsidy.

This bold move not only resulted in savings amounting to trillions of naira but also allowed the government to reallocate those funds into critical infrastructure projects and vital social programs aimed at improving the standard of living for many citizens.

In addition to the fuel subsidy removal, President Tinubu introduced an exchange rate unification policy.

This measure aimed to enhance transparency in the currency market and restore investor confidence in Nigeria’s economy.

While the initial implementation of this policy led to a period of volatility for the naira, it ultimately laid a more stable foundation for foreign investments, creating a more predictable business environment over time.

Tinubu’s administration focused on debt restructuring, successfully reducing the revenue allocated to debt servicing from 98% to 68%.

This significant decrease alleviated fiscal pressures and created more financial space for education, healthcare, and infrastructure investment, supporting the country’s economic growth and development goals.

Sectoral Revitalisation: Telecommunications, fintech, and entertainment emerged as growth leaders.

The revitalisation of different sectors is actively underway, with telecommunications, fintech, and entertainment emerging as the key growth leaders. These industries are flourishing and reshaping our economy and altering how we connect, conduct transactions, and enjoy leisure activities in unprecedented ways.

The reforms enacted during this period faced numerous challenges, primarily characterised by significant economic turmoil.

Inflation rates soared above 20%, creating instability in the purchasing power of the naira, which experienced a staggering decline in value, decreasing by over 300%.

This devaluation not only impacted everyday consumers but also led to increased costs of essential goods and services.

Additionally, the national debt escalated to more than $100 billion, placing immense strain on the government’s financial resources and policy decisions.

Despite the severe economic difficulties and the resulting hardships faced by the populace, these struggles played a critical role in laying the groundwork for a new economic order.

The necessity for these reforms became evident as they aimed to address long-standing structural issues within the economy, paving the way for future growth and stability.

Ultimately, while the journey was fraught with obstacles, it was viewed as a crucial phase in reorienting the nation’s economic landscape.

Economic Data: Signs of Emerging Growth

Nigeria’s economy is showcasing remarkable resilience amid numerous challenges. In the first quarter of 2025, the nation’s real GDP soared to an impressive 3.13%, a notable leap from 2.27% during the same period last year. Projections for the entire year hint at an even more astonishing growth target of 3.7%, poised to be the highest growth rate in a decade!

Multiple sectors are driving this positive momentum. The services sector has emerged as a powerhouse, boasting a robust growth rate of 4.33% and now accounting for over 57% of the country’s GDP.

The industrial sector is also making waves, enjoying a growth rate of 3.42%, primarily propelled by advancements in oil refining and construction. Even agriculture, which had seen better days, is showing signs of recovery with a slight growth of 0.07%.

In terms of oil production, the figures have climbed to 1.74 million barrels per day, although it still doesn’t meet the ambitious budgetary targets.

Overall, these promising statistics reflect a nation that is not just bouncing back but recalibrating and repositioning itself for a brighter future.

The ongoing reforms are pivotal steps toward securing Nigeria’s prosperity in the ever-evolving global landscape.

History affirms that bold reforms precede national transformation:

In the aftermath of World War II, several nations decisively charted remarkable journeys of economic recovery and growth.

Germany, guided by the Marshall Plan and Ludwig Erhard’s social market economy, transformed itself from devastation into Europe’s unequivocal industrial leader.

Meanwhile, Japan strategically implemented export policies and prioritised innovation, emerging as a dominant global technology powerhouse.

Deng Xiaoping’s bold reforms catapulted China into the ranks of the world’s largest economies through the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and a robust commitment to global integration.

Similarly, Ireland underwent a dramatic turnaround, moving from stagnation to prosperity by fully embracing European Union integration and implementing technology-driven reforms.

Singapore’s meteoric rise is a testament to its visionary leadership and substantial infrastructure investments, which have transformed the resource-poor island into an essential global financial hub.

These nations share a powerful narrative of embracing reform, overcoming short-term challenges, and emerging stronger than before. Today, Nigeria is firmly on a parallel path, determined to achieve comparable growth and resilience.

The Harvest Ahead: What Must Be Done

For Nigeria to unlock its full potential through reform, a concentrated focus on critical areas is imperative. Strengthening institutions stands as a non-negotiable priority, with a firm commitment to upholding the rule of law, implementing robust anti-corruption measures, and enhancing regulatory efficiency.

By empowering citizens through increased access to quality education, digital skills training, and entrepreneurial resources, we can cultivate a thriving economic landscape.

Furthermore, revitalizing the agricultural sector is vital; securing farmlands and investing in modern farming techniques will effectively combat inflation and alleviate food insecurity.

Attracting investment necessitates significant enhancements to our infrastructure, the simplification of the business environment, and the establishment of strong protections for investors.

Lastly, we must prioritize the welfare of our most vulnerable populations by ensuring that social safety nets are transparent, effective, and inclusive, guaranteeing that those in need receive the vital support they deserve.

A Call to National Resolve

Nigeria stands at a crucial juncture as President Tinubu embarks on his journey toward a second term, guided by hope and determination.

This moment is not simply about continuing previous policies; it represents an opportunity to realize a shared vision through dedicated effort and careful execution of strategic initiatives.

With the foundation already established and the potential for transformative change in sight, it is essential for the nation to come together and benefit from the hard work invested in this endeavour.

We must decisively rise above the pervasive cynicism that clouds our outlook and wholeheartedly embrace the vast possibilities that lie ahead.

Our objective is clear: to construct a Nigeria where meaningful reforms deliver tangible benefits, well-paved roads, abundant job opportunities, top-notch educational institutions, and the restoration of dignity for every citizen.

We possess the power to transform our beloved nation into one that not only overcomes the challenges we face but boldly thrives in an inclusive and sustainable manner.

It’s time for us to take decisive action, as the results of our hard work are within reach. We must unite to seize this opportunity and fully embrace the benefits of our commitment to a brighter future for Nigeria.

Together, we have the power to forge a lasting legacy of progress and prosperity that will benefit generations to come.

Entrepreneurs here don’t just contend with the market; they contend with the state itself. Sudden tax reforms, unpredictable import bans and contradictory regulations hit them; the environment is usually more like a minefield than a marketplace. 

The question is no longer whether you can compete with other businesses, but if you can survive policy shocks long enough to compete at all.

The Context & Stakes

The country’s business environment is high-potential but high-risk. Reforms are truly designed to improve revenue, regulate emerging industries, and boost infrastructure. But in practice, the unpredictability of these changes usually destabilises businesses before they can adapt.

With a tax-to-GDP ratio of just 9%, one of the lowest in Africa, the government is having challenges in widening the tax net. The Nigeria Tax Act 2025 introduced a 4% Development Levy on assessable profits, consolidating several existing levies. While aimed at simplifying compliance, such measures often arrive with little transition time, leaving businesses struggling to rework budgets overnight.

This is not a problem unique to big corporations, as small businesses, which form the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, face their own version of this challenge. Those with turnover under ₦100 million are exempt from Companies Income Tax, but exemptions exclude professional service firms, creating uneven relief and distorting competition.

When the rules change faster than you can adapt, even the most promising venture can collapse.

The Four Big Obstacles

a) Ever-Changing Tax Regimes

Tax changes here are not occasional; they’re constant. Beyond the new Development Levy, digital asset taxation is now law. Profits from crypto and virtual assets are taxable under the new framework, but enforcement is still tricky due to valuation gaps and anonymity challenges. 

The speed and frequency of such reforms mean businesses are perpetually in a state of adjustment, burning resources on compliance rather than growth.

b) Lack of Infrastructure

Nigeria’s infrastructure stock stands at just 30% of GDP, far below the World Bank’s benchmark of 70%. This gap, projected to reach $878 billion over the next 26 years, is the reason SMEs spend twice as much producing goods as their peers in better-served economies. 

Unreliable power forces reliance on generators. Overstretched ports and congested roads delay shipments. Even with 35 governors planning to spend ₦17.51 trillion on infrastructure this year (a 54% increase from 2024), execution is still not certain.

c) Regulatory Whiplash

Few sectors illustrate this better than crypto and fintech. In 2021, the CBN banned crypto transactions, but by 2023, the ban was reversed. Now, under the Investments and Securities Act 2025, crypto is recognised as a regulated digital asset under SEC jurisdiction. 

Fintech companies are caught between overlapping oversight from the CBN and SEC, creating compliance confusion that slows innovation and drives some startups underground.

d) Corruption & Rent-Seeking

The UNODC’s 2024 Nigeria Corruption Survey shows over 70% of Nigerians refused to pay a bribe at least once, a sign of commendable resistance. But corruption still ranks among the country’s top three challenges. 

From procurement to licensing, rent-seeking behaviour inflates costs and wastes time. Many entrepreneurs silently admit that bribes remain “the price of getting things done,” even when they affect trust in institutions.

Survival & Growth Strategies

• Diversify Revenue Streams: Relying on a single source of income is dangerous when a policy change can erase it overnight.
• Stay Policy-Aware: Join trade associations, attend policy briefings, and actively monitor regulatory developments. Being caught off-guard is expensive.
• Build Flexible Models: Design operations that can shift quickly, for example, businesses that can toggle between import and local sourcing depending on customs rules.
• Invest in Digital Agility: E-commerce, remote service delivery, and cloud-based operations can help bypass some infrastructure constraints.
• Collaborate for Scale: Partnerships reduce exposure. Shared logistics, pooled procurement, or joint advocacy can soften the blow of policy changes.

An SME owner in Lagos recently told me:

“Every time I hear ‘new policy,’ I don’t think about how it will help. I think about how much it will cost me this time.”

Another, a fintech founder, described the constant pivoting as “building on shifting sand.” The frustration is the unpredictability, not limited to the cost.

Macro Takeaway

In Nigeria, policy is a central player, not just the background noise of business. And for many, it feels less like a referee and more like a competitor.

Scaling through goes beyond market fit; it includes policy resilience. Entrepreneurs need to be as skilled at reading government gazettes as they are at reading balance sheets. The prize for those who adapt is a market with huge potential, and the cost for those who can’t is early extinction.

So, I leave you with this:
If you could design one policy to protect Nigerian entrepreneurs from sudden shocks, what would it be?

But 2025 has set a new record. This year, rams were priced as high as ₦750,000 to ₦1 million in many parts of Nigeria. What was once a religious and cultural celebration has turned into a financial burden for millions and its not just high prices we are dealing with, but the full impact of economic instability on daily life.

The Rise and Rise of Ram Prices

In just two years, the price of a mid-sized ram has jumped by over 400%, with Traders blaming insecurity in livestock-producing regions, higher costs of transport and feed prices.

On a broader scale, we see the naira has lost huge value, insecurity in Northern states like Zamfara and Katsina has disrupted supply chains, the cost of diesel and petrol has made moving goods across states nearly unaffordable, livestock traders are also dealing with new levies and multiple taxes across state borders. 

These factors combined have pushed livestock prices to levels that most Nigerians simply cannot afford.

Cutting Back on Celebrations

Many families have adjusted, some bought chickens or goats, others did nothing at all. For the first time in decades, Sallah passed in several households without the smell of grilled ram or the sound of children knocking on neighbours’ doors for meat.

Beyond food, this shows a growing economic divide. Those who can afford to celebrate still do, but those who can’t are finding ways to keep the spirit of the holiday alive, even if it means stepping away from long-held customs.

Effects on Traders and Retailers

The effects are being felt in the markets. Retailers reported slower sales in the weeks leading up to Sallah. Some deliberately reduced their stock, unsure of whether people would actually buy. 

Traders dealing in fabric, perfumes, shoes, and non-essential goods say the usual Sallah rush never came, the demand wasn’t there.

For many, income is stagnant or shrinking, salaries don’t match rising costs, and purchasing power is falling. Traders are adapting by reducing inventory, slashing profit margins, or offering instalment payments, moves that weren’t common even a year ago.

Digital Payments: A Useful but Limited Tool

The fee waivers and cashback promotions already offered by several digital payment platforms, including Opay, Kuda and PalmPay, helped this period. Users utilised these platforms mode to reduce friction at checkout points, encouraging users to send money to family members or pay merchants without needing physical cash or being scared of network failure.

However, the larger issue was that people didn’t have enough money. Technology can make transactions easier, but it doesn’t address the root causes of poverty or inflation. Many fintech platforms are also dealing with increased costs of operations, and we can’t tell how long these discounts can be sustained.

What about Logistics?

For businesses that rely on logistics, this Sallah was a test, with high petrol prices and deteriorating road conditions, delivery companies had to rethink their operations. 

Some cut back on service hours, others switched to using public transport systems for short-range deliveries, particularly within city centres like Lagos and Abuja.

Riders, who typically earn based on completed trips, saw a decline in volume. To retain them, some companies introduced bonuses, free maintenance support, or performance-based fuel subsidies. 

These measures helped, but only in the short term. The bigger challenge of how to deliver effectively in an environment where fuel prices are explosive and consumer demand is unsteady.

The Search for Alternatives

A few logistics companies like Max.ng and Bolt are now experimenting with electric and battery-powered vehicles, aiming to reduce dependency on fuel and stabilise costs of operations, but the transition is slow. 

Charging infrastructure is limited, and the upfront cost of electric vehicles is still high for small businesses.

Nonetheless, there’s thriving interest. If the current fuel pricing structure keeps up, we may see higher adoption of electric vehicles in Nigeria’s logistics space in the next two to three years.

What We’ve Learned from Sallah 2025

This year’s Sallah has shown us how quickly economic conditions can change long-standing cultural patterns. We’ve been forced to adapt under pressure, overlooking the rams for celebrations. 

The middle class, which once anchored consumer spending during festive periods, is being squeezed from both ends. Small businesses are struggling with falling demand and while digital platforms provide short-term ease, they don’t solve long-term affordability issues.

More than anything, Sallah 2025 reveals that the gap between tradition and reality is getting wider. And unless there is serious policy intervention, particularly around food supply, transport costs, and job creation, subsequent celebrations may become even more subdued.

Can We Still Afford to Celebrate?

Festivities used to be a time for joy and unity. Now, they remind us of what many can no longer afford. The government needs to take a serious look at the high cost of living and its long-term impact on social cohesion. 

Businesses, too, must prepare for a phase where consumer spending is lower, more cautious, and more selective.

Reflecting on this year’s Sallah has left me looking beyond if we could afford rams, can we afford to continue as we are?

Governor Olayemi Cardoso made the announcement on Tuesday, confirming that the decision was unanimous among committee members. 

Alongside the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for commercial banks remains fixed at 50%, while mortgage banks continue with 16%. The Liquidity Ratio (LR) stays at 30%, and the asymmetric corridor remains unchanged at +500/-100 basis points around the MPR.

This decision is coming against the backdrop of slightly improving inflation figures. Nigeria’s inflation rate eased to 23.7% in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That figure, though still high, provided a narrow window for policymakers to pause further tightening.

Cardoso offered a measured explanation for the committee’s choice: “The committee unanimously agreed to retain MPR at 27.50 percent.” The rationale, he said, was based on ongoing economic adjustments and the need to consolidate recent gains.

This pause is a cautious departure from a series of previous hikes. Since mid-2023, the CBN has steadily increased rates in a bid to fight inflation and manage currency volatility. The current move, while conservative, signals a wait-and-see approach amid fragile macroeconomic conditions.

We’re also watching the naira. As of last week, the official exchange rate hovered around N1,598.72 per dollar, with the parallel market offering slightly worse at N1,635. This narrowing gap is one of the few indicators suggesting some stability, though risks remain.

Inflation is the major concern. Food prices continue to stretch household incomes, and insecurity in food-producing states only complicates matters. “Members, however, were not oblivious to the risk of persisting inflationary pressures driven largely by food prices,” Cardoso said at the briefing.

From where we stand, it’s obvious that the CBN is trying to strike a balance. They’re holding the line, hoping that prior policies begin to bite, but also ready to act again if inflation refuses to budge. The decision to maintain high reserve requirements for banks also sends a strong message, liquidity will be tightly managed.

In plain terms, the CBN is being careful. There’s no rush to ease. No gamble. Just methodical restraint in the hope that inflation softens, the currency strengthens, and confidence returns.

The next MPC meeting is expected to take place in the coming weeks. By then, we’ll have fresh inflation numbers, a better sense of GDP growth, and perhaps a clearer picture of how long this high-interest-rate environment can be sustained.