The telecommunications giant last rewarded shareholders in 2023, but a strong rebound in earnings and operations is clearing the way for a payout in the 2025 financial year. 

MTN’s negative equity, which stood at ₦458 billion at the end of 2024, has reduced to ₦42.51 billion by mid-2025 and Analysts project that the figure will turn positive in the third quarter, an important step towards dividend reinstatement.

The record of strong payout ratios for MTN Nigeria, coupled with recent comments from MTN Group President Ralph Mupita about a possible public offer after dividend resumption, has further enhanced expectations.

Explosive data growth and the full impact of tariff increases, which took effect in the second quarter, are huge contributors to this. In that period, data revenue soared 85.6% year-on-year to ₦701 billion, up from ₦377 billion a year earlier. 

Across the first half, MTN earned ₦1.22 trillion from data sales, supported by an increase in active users to 51 million and a 21.1% jump in average data consumption to 13.2GB per user.

Data now accounts for 51.7% of total revenue, increasing from 47.2% a year earlier, and is projected to hit 53% by year-end. Voice revenue also has a 40% growth forecast for 2025 despite competition from OTT alternatives like WhatsApp calls.

The recovery is also showing in profitability as MTN posted a half-year net income of ₦414.9 billion, a 179.9% increase compared with last year. Its EBITDA margin climbed to 50.6% in the first half, up from 35.6% in the same period of 2024. 

Management attributed the improvement to a more stable naira and cost savings from renegotiated tower lease agreements.

Again, net operating cash flow surged 79.2% year-on-year to ₦955.68 billion in H1 2025, even after huge capital spending and debt repayments. First-half CAPEX surged 288.4% year-on-year to ₦565.67 billion, pushing CAPEX intensity to 23.8%. 

The company plans to invest an average of ₦1.34 trillion annually over the next five years to support revenue growth of nearly 27% per year. 

While this front-loaded spending will ease in the second half, analysts say it underlines MTN’s goal to strengthen its network and expand services.

After a difficult 2024, when the share price slid 24% to end the year at ₦200, MTN’s stock has staged an interesting recovery. Starting 2025 at ₦200, it surged to ₦250 by January-end, gathered further pace in June, and delivered a 32% gain in July alone. 

As of early August, the shares trade at ₦480, a 140% year-to-date return and a market capitalisation above ₦10 trillion, making MTN only the second company on the Nigerian Exchange to hit that milestone after Dangote Cement.

CardinalStone has maintained a “Hold” rating on the stock, with a target price of ₦526.94 for 2025. Cordros Capital projects a dividend per share of ₦17.19, offering a yield of about 7% at current prices.

With data-led growth, expanding fintech operations, and continued network investment, analysts believe MTN is well placed to sustain its momentum. “Positive outlook affirmed for telco bellwether,” CardinalStone wrote in its August 6 report.

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The event, themed “Impact of Adjacent Agencies on Nigerian Telecom Sector: The Way Forward,” was an in-depth conversation about the structural and regulatory issues stalling industry growth.

The President of ATCON, Tony Emoekpere, opened the meeting with a reflection on the journey so far. “Two years ago, I was entrusted with the mandate to lead this association, and I’ve done so to the best of my ability with absolute focus,” he said. 

He noted that the association has grown with at least 27 new member companies joining during his tenure, and that ATCON had engaged with over 75 strategic global and local events to defend industry interests.

However, he stressed the pressing concerns about the growing influence of non-core regulatory bodies in telecom operations. 

Emoekpere led a no-holds-barred discussion, pointing out that several agencies outside the industry were imposing levies and regulations, thereby disrupting operations.

“We have other agencies that are trying to create some form of levies, looking for ways to impose charges right away on their operations,” he said. “We don’t want to be in an environment where our investment is totally at risk, or where people don’t even want to invest in our sector.”

Participants described the actions of these adjacent agencies as intrusive and economically damaging. Multiple operators spoke about what they termed regulatory duplicity, instances where different state agencies imposed overlapping charges and policies. 

A stakeholder stated: “We already face enough ends. We don’t want to have other people taking up the responsibility.”

The need for a one-stop-shop regulatory model was a recurring recommendation. “In some states, you have the State Revenue Service, the State Infrastructure Agency, the Urban Planning Agency – all coming after you for the same reason. It is not sustainable,” another stakeholder said.

The discussion turned inward when Engineer Ikechukwu Nnamani, CEO, Digital Realty (Nigeria) and former president of ATCON, noted industry indiscipline and undercutting among telecom players.

He pointed out that while some members advocate for tariff increases, others reject it, leaving the entire sector weakened. “We’re in the same industry, and they are better capitalised than us… we’re hurting ourselves,” he stated.

This disunity was seen in competition for bank contracts. “The same bank writes you and says decrease your service price, even after telling you that your cost of capital has gone up,” he added. “We don’t function as an association. We don’t function as a group. So when they harass us, we go back and start competing amongst ourselves.”

Vice President of ATCON and CEO of the Internet Exchange Point of Nigeria (IXPN), Muhammed Rudman, stated: “99.98% of internet users in Nigeria access it via mobile, while only 0.2% use fixed lines,” a sharp contrast to South Africa where over 50% of users are on fixed lines, enabling better in-country data traffic retention. 

“Brazil is now the second largest country with internet networks because they domesticated 90% of their traffic through strong associations.”

As tensions rose, Emoekpere reaffirmed ATCON’s focus on industry-wide cohesion. He revealed plans to set up an Industry Think Tank Committee to establish standardised guidelines for engagement with adjacent agencies.

“We must start having industry committees, think tanks to handle some of these matters, so we can now come up with a position,” he said.

Calls for a renewed code of conduct were made, and several members volunteered for roles in committees aimed at solving these regulatory and operational issues. “We must move from talk to structure,” he asserted.

The meeting also touched on education and workforce development, with members agreeing that ATCON must play a more active role in impacting the academic curriculum to meet telecom industry demands.

The group resolved to explore partnerships, virtual training models, and institutional support for under-resourced tertiary institutions.

Closing the session, Emoekpere said, “ATCON is not just an association, it is a collective commitment to action. We do make an impact, and they are actually looking forward to our contributions.”

The newly elected executives were sworn in with high expectations. The first task on their table: push back against regulatory encroachment and unify a fractured industry.

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