Latest figures from the apex bank show that the reserves increased significantly year-on-year, rising by about $10.2 billion compared to the same period in 2025.

The latest growth also extends a week-long rally in Nigeria’s reserve position, signaling renewed stability in the country’s external sector after months of pressure linked to forex volatility, debt obligations, and declining investor confidence.

Analysts say the rebound reflects multiple factors, such as improved oil production levels, stronger diaspora remittances, renewed foreign portfolio inflows, exchange rate reforms, and tighter monetary management by the CBN.

The increase in reserves comes amid broader efforts by the monetary authorities to stabilise the naira and improve liquidity within Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

Under the leadership of Olayemi Cardoso, the CBN has implemented several reforms aimed at restoring investor confidence, improving transparency in FX operations, and reducing distortions within the currency market.

Economic analysts note that stronger external reserves provide the country with a critical buffer against external shocks and improve the CBN’s capacity to defend the naira when necessary.

The reserve growth also comes at a time when international rating agencies and investors are beginning to respond positively to Nigeria’s macroeconomic reform direction.

Recently, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign outlook, citing improving macroeconomic conditions, exchange rate liberalisation, stronger external balances, and fiscal reform measures.

Despite the improvement, economists warn that sustaining reserve growth will depend heavily on stable oil prices, higher crude oil production, continued FX market reforms, improved export earnings, and stronger non-oil revenue generation.

Nigeria’s external reserves remain one of the key indicators closely monitored by investors, multilateral institutions, and financial markets as they assess the country’s economic resilience and ability to manage external obligations.

The latest reserve rally may also strengthen market confidence in the ongoing economic reforms being pursued by the federal government and the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated the currency appreciated slightly by N3.09 to close at N1,380.79 per dollar on Thursday, the last trading day before Easter, compared to N1,383.88 a week earlier on the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market.

On a daily basis, the naira slipped marginally by N2.09 from Wednesday’s rate of N1,378.70 per dollar.

Across the four trading sessions, however, it recorded a modest gain of N2.79 from Monday’s N1,383.58 per dollar, suggesting short-term resilience despite ongoing market fluctuations.

In the parallel market, the exchange rate remained unchanged at N1,410 per dollar, with the gap between official and unofficial rates narrowing slightly.

The continued drop in reserves comes amid global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have reduced investor appetite for riskier markets like Nigeria and slowed capital inflows.

Lower crude oil output and increased domestic allocations to local refineries have also constrained foreign exchange earnings from oil exports.

Analysts note that recent foreign exchange interventions by the CBN, along with debt obligations and shifts in money market instruments, have contributed to the reserves decline. Despite this, the apex bank maintains that such movements are part of normal operations and has reiterated its commitment to supporting currency stability in the face of external pressures.

Figures from the apex bank’s Movement in Foreign Reserves show that the current level is the highest recorded since March 2018.

The increase follows a strong performance in 2025, when the country’s foreign reserves climbed to an estimated $45.01 billion, supported by a $5.8 billion balance of payments surplus.

In its Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, 2026, titled Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty, the CBN projects that Nigeria’s external reserves could rise further to $51.04 billion by the end of 2026.

The expected growth is attributed to easing pressure in the foreign exchange market following the unification of the naira exchange rate, stronger oil earnings, higher diaspora remittances, sovereign bond issuance, and the expansion of the Dangote Refinery.

Increased local refining capacity has reduced the importation of refined petroleum products such as Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), gasoline, diesel, kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

“The external reserves are projected at US$51.04 billion in 2026, compared with US$45.01 billion in 2025,” the report stated. “This outlook is based on reduced pressure in the FX market, driven by higher oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance and increased diaspora remittance inflows.

“Additionally, the Dangote Refinery’s expansion of its nameplate capacity to 700,000 barrels per day from 650,000 barrels per day in 2025, and eventually to 1.4 million barrels per day in the medium term, is expected to further support the growth of external reserves.”

Speaking before a Nigerian Senate panel on December 4, 2025, Olayemi Cardoso, CBN Governor said the rise in external reserves reflects growing investor confidence in the economy and improved stability in the foreign exchange market.

Olayemi Cardoso, CBN governor, stated after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Tuesday, that recent monetary measures are beginning to yield results.

He noted that the rise in the reserves reflects growing investor confidence, which has also contributed to the naira’s relative stability, currently trading between N1,590/$1 and N1,610/$1 this year.

According to data from the CBN, Nigeria’s external reserve began the year on a positive trajectory, exceeding $40 billion in January 2025. The highest point was recorded on January 20, when the reserves reached $40.15 billion.

However, by February, the reserves began to decline. As of February 18, it had fallen to $38.82 billion, losing over $1.3 billion within one month.

The loss continued in March, falling to $38.35 by March 7. It stood at $38.57 by March  20 and fell further down to $38.31 billion by March 28, pointing to a loss of $260 million in less than two weeks.

This decline was largely driven by falling global oil prices, external debts, and increased demand for foreign exchange.

Throughout April, the reserve remained below $38 billion. It grew slightly to $38.08 billion by April 10, before dipping again to $37.79 billion on April 25.

Recent data from the CBN, however, revealed that the external reserve began its rebound on May 9, rising to $38.12 billion, and then to $38.21 billion by May 12. By May 16, it stood at $38.38 billion May 16, representing a $260 million increase in just one week.

The latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) BOP report reveals that Portfolio Investment inflows grew by 106.5%, rising to $13.35 billion in 2024, from $6.47 billion in 2023. This influx of foreign currency boosted the external reserves.

Similarly, Other Investment (OI) assets increased significantly to $4.64 billion, from a negative $0.93 billion recorded in 2023. However, Direct Investment inflows declined by 42.3%, falling to $1.08 billion in 2024 compared to $1.87 billion in 2023.

Nigeria’s overall BOP recorded a surplus of $6.83 billion showing higher earnings from foreign transactions compared to expenses.

Again, NEO decreased significantly by 79.5%, falling to negative $5.10 billion in 2024, from $24.90 billion in 2023. This improvement was due to better data availability and more accurate reporting.

Nigeria’s external reserves include foreign assets, liquid assets like gold bars, and convertible currencies held by CBN.

These reserves act as a financial buffer in times of external imbalances, helping stabilize the currency and economy.

The surge in reserves enhances investors’ confidence in Nigeria’s economy and provides funds to mitigate economic shocks.

As of March 7, 2024, the external reserves stood at $34,110,027,381, compared to the previous month’s figure of $33,116,051,881 recorded on February 8, 2024.

Analysis of the data indicates that the reserves had been relatively hovering around $32 to $33 billion over the past eight months, with the current March 7 record marking the highest point since June 30, 2023, when the reserves reached $34,119,447,986.

CBN had last week reported a surge in overseas remittances, reaching $1.3 billion in February, a substantial increase from the previous month’s $300 million.

Mrs. Hakama Sidi Ali, the acting director of Corporate Communications Department, CBN, had stated that foreign investors acquired over $1 billion worth of Nigerian assets in the same month adding, “Total portfolio flows for the year amounted to approximately $2.3 billion, compared to the $3.9 billion recorded in 2023.”

Ali had emphasised the heightened foreign exchange inflow in February, driven by increased remittance payments from Nigerians abroad and foreign portfolio investors’ interest in naira assets.

She noted that the trend continued into March, propelled by rising investor interest in short-term sovereign debt following adjustments to benchmark interest rates.

Ali highlighted oversubscribed government securities issuances, with foreign investors contributing over 75 per cent of bids received at auctions conducted on March 1 and 6, 2024.

CBN Governor Mr. Olayemi Cardoso outlined a comprehensive strategy during last month’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting and a conference call with foreign portfolio investors, aiming to curb inflation, stabilize the exchange rate, and boost confidence in the banking system and the overall economy. Cardoso expressed satisfaction with the initial results, stating, “Our objective today is to ensure that the market has supply, that the market functions, and that investors can come in and go out.” (ThisDay).