Nigeria’s headline inflation has eased to 15.01% in January 2026, down from the 15.15% recorded in December and a massive cliff-dive from the 27.61% seen in January 2025.

For the first time in a long while, the month-on-month data showed a sharp reversal: a -2.88% growth rate.

In simple terms, prices actually took a slight step back in January compared to the December festive peak.

The Food Hack: Why Your Jollof Might (Slightly) Cheaper

The real MVP of this report is food inflation. It slowed down to 8.89% year-on-year, a dramatic drop from the nearly 30% seen a year ago.

According to the NBS, the cooling effect came from lower average prices for staples like:

• Proteins & Oils: Eggs, groundnut oil, and palm oil.
• Grains & Tubers: Maize, beans, and cassava tubers.

On a monthly basis, food prices crashed by 6.02%. While this is a win for the average Nigerian’s wallet, it’s worth noting that the “12-month average” still sits at a high 21.97%, meaning the long-term pain hasn’t fully evaporated yet.

Urban vs. Rural: The Geography of Inflation

The cost of living remains a tale of two Nigerias:

The Urban Jungle: Inflation in cities like Lagos and Abuja hit 15.36%. City dwellers are still feeling the heat of logistics and energy costs.

The Rural Calm: Rural inflation was lower at 14.44%, thanks to proximity to farm gates and a steeper month-on-month price drop (-3.29%).

The State Heatmap: Benue is Hot, Ebonyi is Chill

Inflation in Nigeria isn’t a monolith; it’s a postcode lottery.

Highest Pressure: Benue (22.48%), Kogi (20.98%), and Abuja (19.25%) are currently the most expensive places to exist.

Lowest Pressure: Ebonyi (8.72%) and Katsina (8.94%) have somehow managed to keep prices in the single digits.

The Techeconomy Take:

On paper, the 12.51 percentage point drop from last year is a massive policy win for the Central Bank and the fiscal authorities.

It suggests that the aggressive interest rate hikes and tight money strategies we saw throughout 2025 are finally hard-coding some stability into the market.

However, Core Inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, is still stubborn at 17.72%.

This indicates that while tomatoes might be cheaper today, the cost of services, manufactured goods, and everything else tied to the exchange rate is still sticky.

Nigeria isn’t out of the woods yet, but for the first time in years, the CPI report isn’t a horror story.

The challenge now is making sure this ease in inflation translates to actual ease for the 148 million subscribers and millions of households trying to survive the 2026 economy.

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According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Monday, the inflation rate fell from 16.05 per cent recorded in October 2025, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline.

The CPI, which measures changes in the cost of goods and services, rose modestly to 130.5 points in November from 128.9 points in October, reflecting a 1.6-point month-on-month increase.

Despite this, the year-on-year inflation rate declined as overall price growth moderated.

On a year-on-year basis, inflation is now 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60 per cent recorded in November 2024, highlighting a significant shift after a period of surging prices last year.

Analysts have noted that part of the slowdown is influenced by adjustments to the statistical base year and the weighting of items in the CPI, which now uses 2024 as the reference period instead of 2009.

Food Inflation and Urban-Rural Variations

Food inflation, typically a major driver of headline inflation, also eased sharply. Annual food price growth slowed to 11.08 per cent in November 2025, down significantly from levels seen in the previous year.

However, the report showed that on a month-on-month basis, both headline and food inflation increased, suggesting that while prices continue to rise, they are doing so at a slower pace than in prior months.

The data also revealed differences in price trends between urban and rural areas:

• Urban inflation stood at 61 per cent year on year, a sharp decline compared to 37.10 per cent in November 2024.
• Rural inflation remained slightly higher at 15 per cent year on year, but also significantly lower than a year earlier.

Context and Implications

The inflation slowdown comes as Nigeria continues to recover from elevated cost pressures and as authorities maintain macroeconomic policy measures to stabilise prices. The trend also means that Nigeria’s inflation rate now sits below the government’s 15 per cent target for 2025, a development that was highlighted by the Presidency as a positive economic indicator.

Despite the easing headline rate, the cost of living remains a concern for many Nigerians, especially as food and essential goods continue to exert upward pressures on household budgets in some regions. Economists caution that while annual inflation is moderating, policymakers must remain vigilant to sustain price stability and improve purchasing power.

The NBS report underscores a cautiously optimistic outlook, with inflation trending downward after a period of prolonged price surges that challenged consumers and businesses alike.

Continued monitoring of price dynamics, particularly around food and energy sectors, will be key to understanding how this trend evolves into 2026.

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Third is the third consecutive monthly drop, following April’s figure of 23.71%. The June figure reflects a 0.75% decline from the previous month.

On a state-by-state comparison, Borno recorded the highest year-on-year inflation at 31.63%, while Sokoto posted the lowest rate at 15.78%.

In urban areas, inflation stood at 22.72% year-on-year, far lower than the 36.55% recorded in June 2024. However, on a month-on-month basis, urban inflation increased to 2.11% in June from 1.40% in May, revealing high short-term price pressures.

Rural inflation followed similarly. On a year-on-year basis, it dropped to 20.85% in June 2025 from 32.09% recorded in the same month last year, revealing a decline of 11.24%.

Food inflation, however, recorded a slight increase to 3.25% from the 2.19% recorded in May 2025. This was mainly driven by an increase in the average prices of some food items like green peas, shrimps, crayfish, fresh meat, fresh tomatoes, and others.

On a year-on-year basis, cost of food dropped by 18.93% to 21.97% in June 2025, from 40.87% recorded in May 2025.

The core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 22.76% in June 2025, down from 27.4% recorded in June 2024. It increased to 2.46% from 1.10% on a month-on-month basis in May 2025, reflecting rising pressure in non-food items.

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As revealed in the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, the decline represents a 0.52% decline from the March 2025 inflation rate.

On a year-on-year basis, inflation decreased by 9.99% compared to the 33.69% recorded in April 2024. Month-on-month, headline inflation stood at 1.86% in April 2025, down from the 3.90% rate recorded in March 2025.

The report also disclosed that food inflation eased, standing at 21.26% year-on-year, a 19.27% drop compared to the 40.53% recorded in April 2024.

While month-on-month, food inflation dropped by 0.12% to 2.06% in April 2025, from 2.18% in the previous month.

The decrease in the food inflation rate is largely driven by a drop in the average prices of food like wheat grain, maize (corn) flour, dried okra, yam flour, soya beans, rice, bambara beans, and brown beans, among others.

States with the highest year-on-year food inflation rates in April include Benue (51.76%), Ekiti (34.05%) and Kebbi (33.82%).

Ogun (9.91%), Adamawa (9.52%) and Ebonyi (7.19%) were among the states with the lowest food inflation rate.

Month-by-month, Benue state recorded the highest rise in food Nigeria’s inflation at 25.59%, while Ebonyi (-14.43%), Kano (-11.37%), and Ogun (-7.06%) recorded a decline.

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While this decline shows a slowdown in price increases, it does not necessarily mean that the cost of living is improving for the average Nigerian.

A 1.30% drop in inflation may seem like prices are beginning to drop, compared to February 2024, when inflation stood at 31.70%, this is an 8.52% year-on-year decline. However, the truth is that essential goods and services are still expensive.

The NBS says the decline is partly due to adjustments in the base year used to calculate inflation, and this means while the numbers look better, the actual effect on purchasing power may be less.

Food inflation stood at 23.51% in February, a sharp drop from 37.92% recorded a year earlier. The NBS notes that the decline in food inflation is due to a statistical adjustment rather than a genuine reduction in food prices.

Month-on-month, food prices still increased by 1.67%, with staples like yam, potatoes, soya beans, and maize flour seeing slight reductions in price. However, for a country where food makes up a huge portion of household expenses, any increase, no matter how small, continues to bite.

Inflation in urban areas stood at 25.15%, while rural areas saw a lower rate of 19.89%. Though both figures show declines from a year ago, they still speak loads about a harsh economy. Rural communities, where incomes are generally lower, are seeing slower price increases, but access to affordable goods remains a struggle.

A slowdown in inflation doesn’t mean prices are coming down; it just means they are increasing at a slower pace. The relief many Nigerians need—actual price reductions—has not yet materialised. Economic policies, exchange rate stability, and production costs will keep impacting how inflation behaves both now and later on.

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The NBS report revealed that the November inflation rate was 6.4 percentage points higher than the 28.2% recorded in the same month last year. 

The month-on-month inflation rate for November also increased by 0.72%, further weakening the purchasing power of Nigerians already facing high costs of living.

Food inflation, a big component of the CPI, reached 39.93% on a year-on-year basis, up from 32.84% in November 2023. 

On a monthly basis, food inflation edged up to 2.98% from 2.94% in October 2024. The steep rise was driven by high prices of essential items such as rice, yam flour, millet, dried fish, goat meat, and powdered milk.

The report attributed the high inflation to supply chain disruptions, rising transportation costs, and the lingering effects of policy reforms. For many households, this has translated into a severe cost-of-living crisis, with basic necessities increasingly out of reach.

Economic analysts trace much of the inflation surge to policy decisions taken by President Bola Tinubu’s administration. 

Upon assuming office in May 2023, Tinubu removed the petrol subsidy and floated the naira, leading to a sharp increase in petrol prices—from under ₦200 per litre to over ₦1,100 in some regions—and a steep depreciation of the naira, which now trades at over ₦1,600 to the dollar.

While international financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF had long called for these reforms to stabilise Nigeria’s economy, the immediate fallout has been a spike in inflation and widespread hardship for citizens. 

The removal of subsidies, coupled with volatile exchange rates, has made energy, transportation, and imported goods considerably more expensive.

With inflation continuing its upward growth, experts warn of far-reaching implications for the nation’s economy and social stability. 

The cost of living has eroded disposable income and deepened poverty levels across Nigeria. Meanwhile, calls for the government to cushion the effects of its reforms through targeted social programmes and fiscal interventions have grown louder.

The inflation rate also brings a challenge to monetary authorities. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may face increasing pressure to tighten monetary policy, despite issues about the possible impact on borrowing costs and economic growth.

For millions of Nigerians, the hope is that policymakers will strike a balance between necessary reforms and measures that protect the most vulnerable populations.

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This is a sustained rise in inflation for the second consecutive month, further tightening the financial stress on citizens already struggling with high living costs.

Food Prices and Transportation Costs Drive Inflation  

The surge in inflation partly results from transportation expenses and higher food prices. On a year-on-year basis, the October inflation rate was 6.55 percentage points higher than the 27.33% registered in the same month last year. 

Food inflation, a critical component of the CPI, reached 39.16%, representing a steep 7.64 percentage point rise compared to October 2023.

Month-on-month, food prices climbed by 2.94% in October, up from 2.64% in September, driven by rising costs of staples such as vegetable oils, meat products, and popular beverages like Lipton and Milo.  

Core Inflation Highlights  

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, stood at 28.37% year-on-year in October, reflecting an increase of 5.79 percentage points from the 22.58% recorded in October 2023. 

Items contributing significantly to this category included transportation services, rents, dining out, and personal grooming services. Month-on-month, the core inflation rate edged up slightly to 2.14% in October from 2.10% in September.  

Urban vs Rural Inflation  

Inflation dynamics varied across urban and rural areas. In urban regions, the inflation rate rose to 36.38% year-on-year in October, up from 29.29% a year earlier. Month-on-month, urban inflation climbed to 2.75%, slightly higher than September’s 2.67%. 

Rural inflation also experienced an uptick, reaching 31.59% year-on-year, compared to 25.58% in October 2023. Month-on-month, rural inflation was recorded at 2.53%, up from 2.39% in September.  

The rise in Nigeria’s inflation comes as ongoing economic reforms initiated by President Bola Tinubu’s administration are put in place.

Key policies, including the devaluation of the naira and the removal of fuel subsidies, were aimed at stabilising public finances and spurring economic growth but have inadvertently worsened inflationary pressures. 

While these measures initially led to a slowdown in inflation earlier this year, recent increases in fuel prices have reversed that trend, prolonging the cost-of-living crisis.

In response to these inflationary pressures, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has implemented five interest rate hikes this year in an attempt to curb inflation. 

The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting later this month is expected to further address these challenges, as the government tries to find a balance between fiscal reforms and economic stability.  

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He shared insights into Nigeria’s economic forecasts, presenting an expected increase in the country’s inflation rate at the CITI-CEEMA Macro Conference held on March 20, 2024, in London.

According to the document, “Headline inflation is expected to rise to 32.63% in March 2024, due to:

“High Energy Prices: Lingering impact of fuel subsidy removal, increasing the cost of household utilities, transportation and production costs.

“Exchange Rate Passthrough: Depreciation of the naira resulting from the market-determined exchange rate policy, is likely to have a passthrough effect on domestic prices.

Others are: “Insecurity: Impact of insecurity on food production, the winding down of the harvest season, and high cost of farm input could negatively impact food prices.” The CBN, however, anticipates a turnaround, with inflation expected to start its downward trajectory beginning in May 2024.

This optimism is based on a series of strategic measures to tackle rising inflation. Among these are the adoption of an Inflation Targeting Framework, deploying more active communication strategies, and shifting towards a tighter monetary policy stance.

Notably, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) has seen an increase of 400 basis points, reaching 22.75%, and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) has been adjusted to 45% from the prior 32.5%. Furthermore, adjustments have been made to the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to +100/-700 basis points from +100/-300 basis points, signaling a robust stance on managing inflation expectations.

Recall that in February 2024, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 31.70%, up from 29.90% in January 2024, marking an increase of 1.80%.

The inflation rate defied the monetary policy rate (MPR), which was hiked by 400 basis points to an unprecedented 22.75%.

A member of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Murtala Sabo Sagagi, recently said that the underlying structural issues within the Nigerian economy significantly hinder the traditional monetary policy tools from achieving desired outcomes on inflation control.

Sagagi emphasized that without addressing key issues such as insecurity, food shortages, and a comprehensive roadmap for economic and social rejuvenation, any monetary policy adjustments would have a minimal impact on inflation rates.

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