The decision was made on Friday following a meeting at the State House between President Muhammadu Buhari and Nasir Isa Kwarra, Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC).

Remember that the earlier postponement of the gubernatorial elections resulted in the Census being moved from its original March 27 date to May 3.

On Thursday, during a meeting with the diplomatic corps at the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Abuja, the chairman of the commission stated that the commission was yet to get all the devices needed to carry out the census, noting that some devices will be procured in a few days.

“For the country, we require up to 800,000 PADs, so far, we have procured about 500,000. The remaining are coming in a few days,” he said.

On the donations for the census by the private sector and other key stakeholders, he said “But you know the way they operate; it is not as if the money will come like that. They have to talk with their government and look at their budget. So, that process is ongoing. But we cannot say any money has come in. It is a process, and the process is unfolding.”

The last population census in Nigeria was conducted in 2006, which recorded a total population of 140 million. Since then, there have been several attempts to conduct another census, but they have been postponed for various reasons. 

The National Population Commission (NPC) had postponed the count from March to May 2023, which was largely necessitated by the rescheduling of the gubernatorial election to March 18.

It is anticipated that the forthcoming census will present updated demographic data on the population of the nation, including its size, composition, and distribution.

Understandably, the government needs this information to plan, strategize and evenly allocate resources amongst the 36 States and the FCT. Demographics are crucial for informed decisions on parameters surrounding basic infrastructure; housing, health care, and education, including technological advancements.

We also acknowledge the fact that international donor agencies, creditors and monetary institutions are wary of ‘pumping’ in funds to countries like Nigeria with inaccurate national population figures. This feeling was one of the prime factors that pushed the Federal Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy to mandate NIMC to up the NIN registration game. The stories are there how it has all panned out.

However, the cost implications of the 2023 census exercise should be reviewed!

Cost Implications

The United Nations projects that Nigeria’s population of more than 200 million will quadruple by the year 2050. Nigeria would surpass the United States to become the third-most populated nation in the world, after China and India.

According to findings, censuses from around the world indicate that the average is between $4 and $6. In contrast, it costs $16 per person in the United States. They spend roughly $10 per person in Botswana. Nigeria’s is estimated to cost $6 per person.

According to Clem Agba, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Budget and National Planning, N626 billion ($1.36 billion) will be needed for the census at a cost of $6 per person, and N243 billion ($527 million) will be needed for post-census operations up to 2025. This totals N869 billion ($1.88 billion).

Mr. Agba pointed out that the government has provided N291.5 billion ($632 million), or 46% of the overall sum required for the project.

The Nigerian government is currently seeking donations to carry out the exercise, which has raised many eyebrows. There are fears that the funds are likely to be misappropriated, and the country at this time does not need a head count.

Government agencies have not gained the trust of Nigerians when it comes to spending public resources to carry out national projects or assignments. The most recent one is the just concluded election by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). It spent a whopping N300 billion to conduct an election that many have described as the worst in the history of the country.

Can we Harmonize Data from NIN and BVN?

For nearly 10 years, the Nigerian government has been on a mission to harmonize data among some of the institutions that warehouse critical datasets such as the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN; Federal Road Safety Commission, FRSC; Federal Inland Revenue Services, FIRS; Pension Commission, PenCom; Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC; Nigerian Health Insurance Scheme, NHIS; Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, FMARD, etc.

Again, the country has records of voter registration schemes, Bank Verification Numbers, and National Identification Numbers. Birth and death records are kept throughout the nation. The question that is yet to be answered is this: Is there no way these data sets can be harmonized or estimated to have a clear insight into Nigeria’s population?

In September 2023, the National Identification Number (NIN) will be ten years old, and the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) said almost 90 million people have registered for the scheme.

The enrolments for the Biometric Verification Number (BVN) by bank account owners in the country rose to 54.7 million as of May 29, 2022, according to the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS). However, only 15 million people with BVN have been linked with NIN.

The country has statisticians and mathematicians who can gather and look at these data from different industry segments and come up with an estimation of the entire population that we can work with.

Rechanneling the Focus

Nigeria is in dire need of economic revival. Its economy has been on the ropes due to several factors such as insecurity, inflation, low production, a high integrated rate, a low ranking in the ease of doing business, poor electricity, and many more.

Other than a head count, the N869 billion required to conduct the census has the ability to significantly predict socioeconomic prospects for the country, ultimately increasing the human capital index of the country.

The education system needs funding. Small businesses across the country need funding, farmers in rural areas are in need of technology to boost productivity, insecurity is still a big challenge, and electricity projects need more funding.

As a fact, the government at this point does not have funds to completely carry out the project. Why not (re)channel that energy into areas that are more fundamental to the country?

We dare to ask if the Nigerian government realized that it is in a precarious fiscal situation considering its huge debt profile of N70 trillion?

Nigeria’s revenue has been on the decline; hence, every naira and kobo should be properly spent and accounted for.

Lai confirmed this to State House correspondents at the conclusion of the Federal Executive Council meeting presided over by President Muhammadu Buhari on Wednesday in Abuja.

The Minister said the decision to move the census was necessitated by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) postponing the gubernatorial and State Assembly elections from March 11 to March 18.

He also revealed that the council approved N2.8 billion for the National Population Commission (NPC) to purchase software for the census.

“There was a memo presented by the National Population Commission, seeking some software to allow them to conduct the census in May this year. I believe that because of the rescheduling of the elections, they cannot commence the census as scheduled.

“They sought the council’s approval for a contract to procure software for the census at a cost of N2.8 billion,” he said.

The 2023 National Population and Housing Census will be held from March 29 to April 1, 2023.

Mr. Jick Lawrence, Head of the NPC Public Affairs Department in Plateau, revealed this on Monday at a capacity-building workshop for journalists on effective census reporting in Jos.

He added that N100 billion had already been spent on census preparations.

He said: “Over N400 billion has been earmarked to be expended on the 2023 census.” “About N100 billion has been expended on preparations ahead of the exercise. Census is a very big and capital-intensive exercise.”

He went on to say that the census had far-reaching socioeconomic benefits and that some of the funds would go toward the empowerment of about 1.5 million Nigerians, with those empowered receiving payments ranging from N100,000 to N150,000 per person.

The Census chief also revealed that the FG would purchase 56,000 vehicles to improve the movement of personnel and materials and approximately 800,000 Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs).

He also mentioned that new categories would be added to the questionnaires, such as ICT literacy, fertility, child survival, deaths in the household in the last 12 months, difficulties performing activities, sanitation, and climate change, among others.

In addition, Osinbajo stated that N21 billion had been spent by the Federal Government to map the nation into census-county regions in preparation for the 2023 census.

On Thursday in Abuja during the Breakfast Meeting with Partners on the 2023 Population and Housing Census organized by the National Population Commission (NPC) in collaboration with  UNFPA, the Vice President made this announcement.

Osinbajo was represented by Laolu Akande, his spokesman.

“The Federal Government had demonstrated tangible commitment to the conduct of the 2023 Population and Housing Census as evidenced in the provision of funds for the implementation of important preliminary activities.

“Specifically, the Federal Government has spent about N21 billion for the mapping of the country into enumeration areas for the census.

“The government, so far, has now approved the sum of N198 billion in the 2022 Appropriation Act of which about 60 percent has since been released,’’ he said.

He said that the funds had positioned the commission in readiness for the successful conduct of the census in April 2023

The Vice President said, however, that there was a need for more resources and additional funding sources from committed partners.

Osinbajo said the breakfast meeting was a necessary step towards soliciting support for the conduct of a census that will be truly digital, and scientific and provide data that would guide national development.

He commended the NPC, UNFPA, and all partners for their commitments and hard work to meet the set goals.

“I would like to urge our distinguished partners to extend maximum cooperation to the country, our government, in the execution of this very important project.

“It is the expectation that as our dependable partners, you will as always, play this expected role towards the successful conduct of the 2023 census,’’ he said.

The Commission had in April announced that the general census would commence after the 2023 elections. it will be the first-ever digitally compliant population and housing census in Nigeria.

The NPC is responsible for producing data about the Nigerian people and economy and the last population and housing census in Nigeria took place in 2006.

The total population in Nigeria was estimated at 206.14 million people in 2020, according to the latest census figures and projections from Trading Economics.

According to Deji Ajayi, Commissioner, NPC at a press conference: “The commission has intensified preparatory activities deploying technological innovations on a massive scale to conduct a truly scientific census that will not only be accurate and reliable but also transparent and acceptable to all Nigerians.

“It will be an entirely paperless exercise. No document will be brought to interview people as it will be digital. We will ensure that we have a seamless census.

”He also revealed a total of one million Nigerians would be recruited by the Federal Government for the conduct of the 2023 national census.

The former Ekiti State’s head of service added that nine towns across nine local governments selected out of the 16 LGAs in the state, had been delineated into Enumerated Areas (EAs) to ease the trial census. He pointed out areas to be enumerated in the trial census as Ado, Emure, Iro, Ijero, Ikole, Iworoko, Ise, Ikun, and Omuo Ekiti.

Explaining the significance of census to nation-building, Ajayi said population statistics would be used by private organizations to plan for the recruitment of young Nigerians by knowing the number of the active population.

“The government will also use such statistics to plan for our youth, students, and the health needs of Nigerians. They will also know the number of senior citizens who should be catered for.”

Assuring that the exercise will be difficult to manipulate, the NPC boss said, “The biometric technology will capture your face and fingerprints and goes to the server and any similar information supplied will be noticed and expunged from the data immediately.