The latest petrol price hike, by Dangote Refinery announced on Saturday morning, March 21, 2026, comes barely hours after a previous increase to ₦1,245.

This rapid succession of price reviews reflects a deepening volatility in Nigeria’s deregulated downstream sector, driven largely by international crude oil price fluctuations and logistics bottlenecks linked to geopolitical tensions.

The March Price Trajectory: A ₦501 Leap

The Dangote Refinery began the month with a gantry price of ₦774 per litre of petrol on March 2. Since then, the trajectory has been steeply upward:

• March 2: ₦774 to ₦874 (12.9% increase)
• Mid-March: Subsequent rises to ₦1,050 and ₦1,175.
• March 20: Hike to ₦1,245.
• March 21: Final adjustment to ₦1,275 per litre.

Cumulatively, the ex-depot price has surged by ₦501 per litre, a staggering 64.7% increase within just 20 days. Coastal prices have followed a similar trend, rising approximately 8.9% to ₦1,646,748 per metric tonne.

The Global Supply Gap Factor

The refinery maintained that these adjustments are necessary to reflect prevailing market realities. While the facility was expected to stabilize domestic supply, it is currently operating within a global environment where traditional supply routes from the Middle East are choked due to conflict.

This has turned the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility into a primary target for other African nations. At least three countries, South Africa, Ghana, and Kenya, have reportedly made formal inquiries to secure fuel volumes from the Lagos-based refinery, further tightening local availability and driving price competition.

Impact on the Digital and SME Economy

For the businesses covered by Techeconomy, this surge represents a significant operational headwind.

With transport fares and commodity prices expected to rise in response to the new ₦1,275 benchmark, the cost of logistics and “last-mile” delivery is likely to face a fresh wave of inflationary pressure.

The refinery has clarified that customers with valid bank guarantees will be accommodated under existing credit arrangements, provided they cover the price differential. However, the new price regime is effective immediately for all unloaded gantry and coastal volumes.

This story illustrates the deregulated reality. Even with local refining, the Nigerian market remains tethered to global oil dynamics.

For tech startups and manufacturers, these five price hikes in one month make energy cost forecasting nearly impossible, emphasizing the urgent need for a shift toward more stable renewable energy alternatives.

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The average retail price paid by consumers for petrol in November 2025 was ₦1,061.35, indicating a 12.59% decrease compared to the value recorded in November 2024, ₦1,214.17.

Likewise, comparing the average price value with that of the previous month, October 2025, the average retail price increased by 0.86% from ₦1052.31.

On the state’s profile analysis, Borno state had the highest average retail price, at ₦1,133.86. Sokoto and Kogi states were next, with ₦1,118.83 and ₦1,111.00, respectively.

Conversely, Oyo, Nasarawa, and Lagos states had the lowest average retail prices, at ₦997.39, ₦1,015.12, and ₦1,021.14, respectively.

Lastly, on the zonal profile, the North East zone had the highest average retail price of ₦1,084.04, while the South West zone had the lowest price of ₦1,036.12.

Petrol was also sold at ₦1,064.73 in the North Central, ₦1,067.51 in the North West, ₦1,059.11 in the South East, and ₦1,054.63 in the South-South.

According to the NBS report, on a Year-to-Date basis, petrol was most expensive in March 2025, where it sold at an average retail price of ₦1,261.65, and also traded at its lowest in September 2025, where it sold at ₦970.59.

Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery has reduced its fuel pump price by 16% to sell at ₦699 per litre from ₦828 per litre. This was effective from December 11, 2025. The Group has also partnered with MRS to sell fuel at ₦739 nationwide.

In a statement issued on Sunday, December 21, 2025, Dangote Refinery lauded MRS and other marketers selling at the reduced pump price.

“We commend MRS and other marketers who have demonstrated patriotism by reflecting the reduced price at the pump. We encourage Nigerians to avoid buying PMS at excessively high prices when they can access locally refined fuel at N739 per litre from over 2,000 MRS stations nationwide,” the firm stated.

The oil and gas company also condemned an alleged attempt to create artificial scarcity for motorists and travellers during the Yuletide season.

“Any attempt to create artificial scarcity or manipulate supply to frustrate recent price reductions is unpatriotic and unacceptable,” the statement further adds.

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Remoured emerged on Wednesday that the company was planning alongside marketers to increase the pump price of petrol to N1200 per litre.

Similarly, motorists nationwide are advised against engaging in panic buying, as there is presently ample availability of PMS across the Nation.

The NNPC’s statement titled “No Increase in PMS Prices, NNPC Ltd. Assures Nigerians”, signed by Olufemi Soneye, the chief corporate communications officer, NNPC Ltd., reads:

“The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Ltd. assures the public that there is no imminent increase in the cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol.

“NNPC Ltd. urges Nigerians to disregard unfounded rumours and assures them that there are no plans for an upward review of the PMS price.

“Motorists nationwide are advised against engaging in panic buying, as there is presently ample availability of PMS across the country”.

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