• Rising motor insurance losses expose cracks in Africa’s risk models
• Middle East capital seen as key to unlocking Africa’s insurance growth
• EIRS warns digital insurance expansion may outpace risk capacity in MEA

As digital insurance gains meaningful traction across Africa and the Middle East, a critical structural gap is emerging, masking a deeper structural risk and one that could potentially slow the sector’s momentum if left unaddressed.

This, analysts say, further highlights the growing need for robust, well-aligned reinsurance support to sustain growth.

According to EIRS, the real constraint is no longer demand or distribution, but access to purpose-driven reinsurance capacity, particularly in high-volume, high-volatility segments such as motor insurance.

Africa landscape

In key markets like Kenya and South Africa, motor insurance remains a cornerstone of the industry. Yet profitability is under sustained pressure.

Rising claims costs, fraud, and aggressive pricing have pushed loss ratios above sustainable levels for several insurers, forcing some to scale back underwriting or exit segments altogether.

At the same time, digital platforms are accelerating policy issuance and expanding access, often without a corresponding evolution in how risks are structured or transferred.

“Digital insurance is scaling faster than the risk frameworks that support it,” said Abhishek Jain, chief executive officer, EIRS Digital Insurance Ecosystem. “In several African markets, particularly in motor, we are seeing growth that is not adequately backed by reinsurance discipline. That creates systemic pressure. The opportunity is not just to grow, but to grow correctly.”

Across Africa, insurance penetration remains low, hovering around 3% to 3.5% of GDP, compared to a global average of 7%.

This signals significant headroom for growth, particularly as mobile-first distribution models gain traction. However, it also underscores the need for stronger risk foundations as volumes increase.

Middle East focus

Across both regions, insurance penetration has remained largely flat below 3%, not due to lack of demand, but due to structural constraints in risk capacity, distribution, and reinsurance support.

However, the Middle East, particularly hubs such as Dubai, remains a center for insurance capital and innovation.

Markets like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have invested and continue to support digital transformation heavily, with insurers deploying AI, automation, and embedded insurance solutions to drive efficiency and scale.

Yet, despite these advancements, the link between Middle Eastern capital and Africa’s rapidly expanding risk landscape stays underdeveloped.

Bridging the gap

“Africa is often labelled high-risk, but in many cases, it is simply mispriced due to lack of local insight,” Abhishek added. “When you combine on-the-ground intelligence with structured reinsurance and access to capital from the Middle East, the risk becomes far more manageable, and far more attractive.”

Reinsurance, long viewed as a backend mechanism, is now being repositioned as a frontline enabler of growth.

Without it, insurers face limits on how much risk they can absorb, particularly in sectors exposed to volatility, such as motor, trade credit, and infrastructure.

As digital insurance continues its rapid expansion, the message is clear: technology may drive access, but reinsurance will determine sustainability.

In his new role, he will be responsible for leading the aviation underwriting business in France, Italy, Benelux, Africa & Middle East, continuing to drive this key business forward.

Jérôme Notton takes over this role from Jean-Pascal Mouchette who had decided to step down from his role and leave Allianz.

He is based in Paris and reports directly to Tom Fadden, Global Head of Aviation at Allianz Commercial, with a matrix report to Patrick Thiels, Regional Managing Director France & South Africa at Allianz Commercial.

Prior to this role, Jérôme Notton (42) was Global Aerospace Underwriting Product Leader at Allianz Commercial since 2021.

He originally joined Allianz Group in 2020 as a Senior Aviation Underwriter at Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS).

Before joining Allianz, Jérôme Notton held various leadership and senior positions at AXA XL in 10 years including Reinsurance, Key Account and Aviation underwriting roles.

He holds a master’s degree in management sciences -with a major in finance- and a master’s degree in financial engineering.