The company said on Tuesday it is projecting an operating profit of 57.2 trillion won ($38.2 billion) for the January to March period.

This is far ahead of expectations and more than eight times higher than the 6.69 trillion won it reported a year earlier. It also exceeds the company’s total profit for all of last year.

This would be Samsung’s strongest quarterly result on record. Its previous high stood at 20 trillion won, reached in the final quarter of 2025.

Demand from data centres has pushed prices higher. Companies building AI systems buy large volumes of memory chips, stretching supply. As a result, prices for DRAM chips rose sharply in the first quarter, with estimates pointing to increases of more than 50%.

“As customers anticipated further increases, actual contract prices came in higher, leading to the beat,” Kim Sunwoo, a senior analyst at Meritz Securities, said.

Samsung appears to be benefiting across most of its business. Analysts estimate its memory division generated about 54 trillion won in operating profit during the quarter.

Its mobile unit also held up, reporting around 4 trillion won in profit, though slightly lower than a year ago. However, its logic chip business is still under pressure and is expected to post a loss.

Currency movements have also helped. The South Korean won has fallen to a near 17-year low against the U.S. dollar, lifting the value of overseas earnings when converted back.

Even so, there are signs that the pace of growth may slow. The high cost of energy linked to the conflict in the Middle East has added pressure on production. At the same time, there are concerns that customers may begin to push back against high chip prices.

“There are growing concerns about a peak-out in memory price increases. It does appear that we are now past the initial upcycle phase and into a later stage,” said Ryu Young-ho, a senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities.

Recent data support that view. Spot prices for DRAM chips eased last week, noting that buyers are struggling to keep up with current price levels.

New technology could also affect demand. Google recently introduced a memory-saving system known as TurboQuant, which may reduce the amount of memory needed for AI workloads.

Samsung has also been working to strengthen its position in high-bandwidth memory chips, which are used in advanced AI processors.

The company began shipping its latest HBM4 chips to Nvidia in February, narrowing the gap with its main opponent, SK Hynix. Still, these advanced chips account for less than 10% of its DRAM revenue, meaning most of the profit is still coming from standard memory products.

In the market, Samsung’s shares rose 1.8% following the earnings outlook, outperforming the index. Shares in SK Hynix also increased.

Despite recent challenges, Samsung’s stock is still significantly higher this year, building on strong gains recorded in 2025.

The company is expected to release full details of its first-quarter results on April 30.

Reports say the company could post operating profit of about 40.5 trillion won ($26.8 billion) for January to March.

That would be six times higher than the same period last year and close to its full-year earnings for 2025. Revenue is also seen going up by about 50%.

Some forecasts go even higher. Analysts at Citigroup expect profit to reach 51 trillion won, above the market estimate.

The profits come as memory chip prices increase. Data from TrendForce shows DRAM contract prices doubled in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. They are expected to grow by another 58% to 63% in the second quarter.

Demand is being driven by heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Large technology firms are investing heavily in data centres, increasing the need for high-performance memory chips. One analyst described the current market as unusually strong.

“You couldn’t ask for things to be better,” said Ko Yeongmin, analyst at Daol Investment & Securities.

Even so, investors are monitoring developments outside the company. The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices and could affect supplies of key materials used in chip production.

There are concerns that higher prices may force technology companies to slow spending on AI projects.

At the same time, there are early signs that spot prices for DRAM chips have eased in recent weeks. Higher prices for smartphones and computers are beginning to affect consumer demand.

New technology is also adding pressure. Google recently introduced a memory-saving system called TurboQuant, which could reduce the amount of memory needed for some AI workloads.

These issues have weighed on the stock as shares in Samsung Electronics have fallen about 14% since late February, when the conflict began. However, the stock is still up 50% since the start of the year.

Some experts believe the recent slowdown in prices will not last.

“We have seen a cooling (in memory chip spot prices) over the last 3-4 weeks, yes. We do believe it’s temporary,” said Tobey Gonnerman, president of Fusion Worldwide. “The demand and backlog remain strong.”

Samsung is still the world’s largest memory chipmaker, with about 40% of the DRAM market and around 35% of NAND flash. Its semiconductor division accounts for more than 70% of total profit, making it the company’s main source of earnings.

The company is also strengthening its focus on AI. It recently agreed to work with Nvidia to produce AI inference processors.

Outside chips, performance is predicted to be weaker. Analysts say Samsung’s contract chip manufacturing business is likely to remain loss-making as it competes with TSMC.

Meanwhile, profits from smartphones and display panels could fall by about half due to high component expenses and stronger competition.

There are also labour concerns at home. Workers in South Korea have called for changes to pay and bonuses and have warned of possible strike action in May.

That’s a bitter pill for a company still reeling from the sudden loss of co-CEO Han Jong-Hee and facing tough competition on all fronts.

Per Reuters, the company’s estimated profit for the January–March quarter is 5.2 trillion won ($3.62 billion), a sharp decline from the 6.6 trillion won recorded a year earlier. The numbers speak for themselves—Samsung is falling behind.

At the heart of the problem is its inability to keep pace with SK Hynix, which has become the go-to supplier of high-performance memory chips for AI industry giants like Nvidia. 

Samsung, meanwhile, has had to rely more heavily on mid-range and low-end products, particularly in China. But even that market is cooling. “The share of HBM chips in Samsung’s overall DRAM shipments may have declined slightly in the first quarter, leading to an expected decrease in DRAM profitability,” said Ryu Young-ho, senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities.

Simply put: Samsung isn’t shipping enough of the right kind of chips. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) chips—the backbone of advanced AI systems—aren’t selling as expected. The demand that poured in late last year from Chinese firms trying to beat new U.S. restrictions has fizzled. 

And unlike SK Hynix, which is expected to more than double its profit this quarter, Samsung’s chip division is bleeding. Analysts peg the unit’s Q1 profit at 1.7 trillion won, down from 1.9 trillion won last year.

To make matters worse, prices across the board are falling. DRAM chip prices—essential for PCs and phones—have slid by 25% year-on-year. NAND flash, used in storage devices, has plummeted by 50%. That’s a brutal environment for any chipmaker, but for one overly reliant on commodity chips, it’s a direct hit.

It doesn’t help that Samsung’s foundry business, which manufactures chips for other firms, is still stuck in limbo. The planned U.S. plant—originally slated to go live in 2024—is now reportedly delayed until 2027. No big production deals have come through, and the division remains unprofitable.

There’s a bright spot, albeit a modest one. The mobile and network segment is expected to post a 3.7 trillion won profit, slightly better than last year’s 3.5 trillion. Higher smartphone shipments and a weaker Korean won helped boost overseas earnings. But even this profit can’t distract from the bigger picture: the core of Samsung’s business is under serious pressure.

Trade tensions are adding fuel to the fire. Fresh U.S. tariffs are set to raise production costs for everything from smartphones to TVs and home appliances. Samsung’s global supply chain strategy may provide a slight buffer—most of its TVs sold in North America are made in Mexico, which escaped the brunt of the new tariffs. 

But the company isn’t sitting back. “Samsung could look to diversify its production base … as part of its mid-to-long-term strategy. However, that isn’t something that can be done within a year or two,” said Jeff Kim, head of research at KB Securities. “If tariffs on consumer electronic devices, such as smartphones, persist, they will inevitably impact consumer demand.”

Samsung’s TV division, the largest in the world, also saw higher competition from fast-moving Chinese brands like TCL and Hisense. And though its Mexico strategy may protect TV margins in the U.S. for now, there’s no telling how long that advantage will last.

On Monday, the company’s stock took a 4.3% hit amid fears over U.S. tariffs. That drop reflects more than just investor jitters—it signals concern that Samsung’s troubles are far from over.

We’re watching a global giant struggle to recalibrate. The AI surge came crashing in, and Samsung wasn’t ready. Now it has to scale through a volatile market, falling prices, and political headwinds—all while trying to catch up to competitors who’ve already moved miles ahead.