The event brought together founders, venture capital investors, corporate venture arms, philanthropic organisations and policymakers to examine the state of Africa’s private capital ecosystem.

AVCA Chief Executive Officer Abi Mustapha-Maduakor opened the summit and commended the resilience of the venture capital sector through difficult funding cycles.

She said that despite tougher fundraising conditions, “venture-backed exits reached a record high in 2025,” pointing to what she described as a shift in the market. She added, “The centre of gravity is moving toward local capital, local expertise, and local conviction.”

A keynote fireside conversation followed between actor and investor Boris Kodjoe and AVCA’s CEO. Kodjoe focused on how perception influences investment decisions and market behaviour. He said, “Storytelling is economic architecture, those who control the narrative shape valuation, and perception is what drives investment.”

The AVCA VC summit then moved into deeper industry discussions on the structure of venture capital in Africa.

A panel titled From Hype to Fundamentals: Resetting the African VC Story brought together Tidjane Dème of Partech Partners, Sapna Shah of Novastar Ventures, Fatoumata Bâ of Janngo Capital, and Mohamed Eissa of the International Finance Corporation (IFC).

The session focused on whether global venture capital models align with African market realities and where expectations have not matched outcomes.

Tidjane Dème pushed back against the idea that the ecosystem is underperforming. He quoted Ido Sum, saying, “African venture capital isn’t broken, it’s just young.” 

He added, “A decade ago, we saw around 30 deals a year; today, that number exceeds 500. We’re still building, and we can’t compare ourselves to a 50-year-old U.S ecosystem just yet. We have time.”

Mohamed Eissa also highlighted the scale of growth in funding. “This ecosystem is still very young, but it has grown from about $400 million of annual investment to roughly $4 billion in just over a decade, clear evidence that the capital base is expanding, even if it’s still not enough.”

Attention later shifted to exit routes and liquidity challenges in the market. Industry participants including Patricia Rinke of AfricInvest, Ibrahim Sagna of Silverbacks Holdings, and Andreata Muforo of TLcom Capital discussed the importance of collaboration in improving exits.

They also pointed to mergers, acquisitions and strategic sales as more practical liquidity options than public listings in many cases.

Speaking on the role of domestic capital, Alex Rumanyika of Uganda’s National Social Security Fund (NSSF) called for stronger participation from African institutional investors.

He said, “If we don’t get into this space, it is going to be an existential threat for NSSF and many pension funds. We need to diversify away from overexposure to government assets and into the sectors where jobs are actually being created.”

The conference was followed by a Private Credit Summit, where investors discussed new financing approaches shaping Africa’s private capital market. The focus shifted to credit strategies and how they are expanding funding options for businesses across the region.

Nathaniel Micklem of Ninety One said, “Private credit is one of the most exciting parts of our asset management platform, but it cannot be built using imported public equity or private-equity instincts. What works in Africa is deploying into stronger, more resilient businesses and sectors, not earlier-stage ventures or smaller SME exposures.”

Walid Cherif of BluePeak Private Capital said private credit continues to gain relevance in Africa due to its flexibility in markets where exits remain limited.

He said, “Private credit is especially suited to African markets because companies continue to perform even when exits are hard to achieve. It is an easier conversation today than it was years ago.”

He added that discipline is essential in the sector, noting that credibility with investors depends on long-term execution and returns, not just strong market narratives.

But in 2025, the tables have turned. The ‘Giant of Africa’ now looks like the continent’s middle child, still the great startup hub, but subtly losing attention.

Across Africa, startups have raised about $2.2 billion in funding so far this year, through September. It’s not a bad figure, in fact, it shows a comeback after 2024’s sluggish performance. 

But Nigeria’s share of that pot is behind. Once the darling of venture capital, the country now follows Kenya, South Africa, and Egypt behind in investor flow and deal flow. We could say this decline reveals cracks in policy, perception, and predictability.

The Numbers

Let’s look at the facts. In the third quarter of 2025, African startups collectively pulled in hundreds of millions, a steady rebound from the funding winter of 2023-2024.

September alone saw between $140 million and $160 million in disclosed deals, a strong 430% recovery from August’s slump. South Africa topped with roughly $64 million, followed by Nigeria’s $44 million, Kenya’s $22 million, and Egypt’s $15 million.

Yes, Nigeria ranked second that month, but context matters. A single month’s uptick doesn’t reverse a year-long slide. The $44 million figure looks good until you recall that just two years ago, Nigeria regularly attracted over 40% of Africa’s total venture capital. Today, that has thinned, the rebound is real, but the lead is gone.

It’s not that Nigeria didn’t have highlights. Lagos-based Kredete closed a $22 million Series A round, one of the continent’s biggest in the month. But a handful of bright spots cannot disguise the bigger difference. Nigeria’s once-dominant startup sector is now fighting for air.

Why the Slide? The Risk Equation

There’s no single villain here. It’s a mix of currency challenges, policy inconsistency, and investor fatigue.

1. Currency Risk and FX Instability
Let’s start with the obvious, the naira. Investors hate surprises, and Nigeria’s currency offers plenty. A venture capitalist can invest $5 million today and see its real value drop by a quarter within months. For startups, it’s a nightmare: revenues in naira, debts in dollars, and no way to plan beyond next quarter.

Currency instability doesn’t just kill profit margins; it kills patience.

2. Regulatory Whiplash
One month, a fintech is celebrated for innovation; the next, it’s hit with a compliance directive or policy change that halts operations. The Central Bank’s unpredictable stance on digital assets, tax laws, and banking limits has left founders second-guessing the next move. For investors, unpredictability is more frightening than failure, you can’t plan for confusion.

3. Investor Confidence Erosion
Venture capital is about risk, but it’s also about trust. And Nigeria’s perception problem runs deep. The inflation rate, the liquidity problem of 2024, and the fear of policy reversals have pushed many funds to look elsewhere.

Kenya’s climate-tech growth looks more predictable. Egypt’s structured reforms provide clearer returns. South Africa’s venture-debt model gives investors better exit options. In comparison, Nigeria? Quite unstable.

4. Cost and Infrastructure Burden

Even the best Nigerian startups fight a heavier battle. Cost of power bites into margins, logistics are inconsistent, and security concerns increase overheads. The same $5 million that can comfortably sustain a startup in Nairobi or Cairo barely covers the basics in Lagos. Investors see this, and they price it in, or calmly move their money elsewhere.

5. Lack of Exit Opportunities

And then there’s the silence after success. Since Paystack’s 2020 acquisition, Nigeria has produced few visible exits. No IPOs, no major mergers, no new liquidity events. For investors, that’s a red flag. Without an exit, even the best-performing portfolio company becomes a waiting game. Venture capital doesn’t thrive on patience, it thrives on movement.

Meanwhile, Elsewhere in Africa…

Kenya, Egypt, and South Africa have been rebalancing the equation.

Kenya has turned climate-tech into a national asset. Its policy environment rewards clean-energy startups and provides tax incentives that attract green investors. 

Egypt, after years of reforms, now has one of the most transparent startup ecosystems on the continent. Its currency stabilisation plan and government support for digital infrastructure are winning back foreign confidence.

South Africa, on the other hand, plays a more sophisticated game. Its venture-debt market gives startups more flexibility and gives investors partial liquidity, a balance Nigeria still hasn’t mastered. 

Together, these hubs have built something Nigeria once had, predictability.

Reclaiming the Edge: What Nigeria Must Do Next

The thing is that Nigeria still has the best talent pool in Africa. Its entrepreneurs are fearless, resourceful, and globally aware. Innovation isn’t the problem; the system is.

To get back in the game of venture capital investment, Nigeria needs credibility, the kind that comes from action, not announcements.

1. Ensure FX Stability:
   A predictable currency policy restores trust faster than any PR campaign.
2. Create a Transparent Regulatory Environment:
   Investors can live with tough regulations, they can’t live with arbitrary ones. Nigeria must fix its fintech and crypto regulatory frameworks if it wants long-term funding.
3. Mobilise Local Capital:
   Pension funds, sovereign wealth vehicles, and high-net-worth individuals must be encouraged to fund innovation. Relying solely on foreign dollars is a risk in itself, unsustainable.
4. Build Exit Pipeline:
   Encourage IPOs, mergers, and acquisitions. When investors see others cash out, they come back, fast.
5. Fix the Basics:
   Energy, internet reliability, and logistics are not “startup issues”, they’re national competitiveness issues. Solving them will reduce risk and attract fresh capital.
6. Promote Investor Dialogue:
   Nigeria’s public and private sectors need to start speaking the same language. Investors hate surprises more than they hate losses.

The venture capital hasn’t left Africa; it’s just gotten pickier, and Nigeria has to earn trust again. The ideas, the founders, the products, they’re all here. What’s missing is a sense that the system itself won’t betray them.

If Nigeria can steady its currency, clean up its regulations, and show genuine respect for investor logic, its startup sector will recover faster than many expect.

Investors go where stability lives. If Nigeria can steady its policy, stabilise its currency, and show a consistent commitment to reform, its startup sector would reignite, with more venture capital investments.

Some unique deals still happen. LemFi, for example, raised $53 million in Series B early in 2025, its biggest round so far. But they are exceptions. Most startups in Nigeria do not manage to clear this gap, and I believe this lack of late-stage funding is one of the biggest risks to our tech sector’s sustainability.

What We Mean by the “Series B Cliff”

Series B is not about “more money.” It is a change in expectations. A startup at Series A is proving its product works, acquiring customers and showing early traction. By Series B, investors expect evidence of scale: solid unit economics, growth across markets, usually profitability or a clear path to it.

In Nigeria, many startups do prove traction. But moving to that next level, expanding nationally or regionally, improving margins, handling regulatory and foreign exchange risks, is much harder. The cliff appears when the risk of scale is too great, when external factors stack up, and when investors become sceptical.

Structural Challenges Holding Us Back

There are multiple structural problems. Some are external. Some within our control. Together, they make the Series B stage difficult to cross.

• Risk Aversion & Global Investor Doubt
  Many foreign investors now demand stronger proof of stability before committing late-stage capital. Macroeconomic instability (inflation, currency fluctuations) makes projections unreliable. Investors see higher risk in Nigerian startups compared to similar ones elsewhere in Africa or globally, and they price that risk either by demanding more control or by withdrawing entirely.
• Weak Exit Opportunities
  For Series B to make sense, there must be credible exit routes such as acquisitions, IPOs, or secondary markets. In Nigeria, large exits are still rare. When exits don’t happen, investors find it hard to justify taking big risks with late-stage funding.
• Corporate Governance and Transparency
  Many startups at seed or Series A have minimal structures: sometimes weak financial reporting, limited board oversight, and loose cost controls. Late-stage investors demand maturity: audited accounts, clear governance, accountability. When those aren’t in place, deals stall or valuations suffer.
• Capital Scarcity for Growth Rounds
  While seed and A-round funding have grown thanks to angel investors, incubators, and early-stage funds, there are comparatively few growth funds in Nigeria willing to lead or participate in large B rounds. Local LPs (pension funds, mutual funds) are careful; regulatory friction around foreign capital complicates large inflows.
• Macro Instability & Currency Risk
  The naira’s instability, difficulty obtaining foreign exchange, and inflation make cost structures unpredictable. For businesses that depend on imported inputs, software subscriptions in foreign currency, or paying overseas partners, this risk can incapacitate margins when scaling.
• Market and Infrastructure Barriers
  Scaling requires infrastructure: reliable power, logistics, and internet latency. In many parts of Nigeria, local infrastructure is weak. Operational costs rise, and unpredictable outages happen. These extra burdens make scaling beyond Lagos expensive and risky.

The Cost of Hitting the Cliff

When startups cannot secure Series B or late-stage backing:

• Growth slows. They may lay off staff, reduce marketing spend, or halt plans to expand into new regions or countries.
• Innovation is stunted. Features, talent hires, R&D often are deferred or dropped.
• Talent may leave. When funding is uncertain, senior hires often prefer safer roles or move abroad.
• Ecosystem morale suffers. When founders and VCs see many good companies stagnate, fewer entrepreneurs attempt ambitious scale-ups.

Examples:

• LemFi’s success is the positive side. 
• Arnergy, in the renewables sector, raised $18 million Series B in 2025, but employees pointed out how difficult it was to get liquidity until after that round. The gap in cash between rounds creates real hardship.

How We Can Fix This: Mitigation & Path Forward

I believe there are concrete, actionable ways the ecosystem can reduce the gap. Some require policy changes. Others are internal to startups or investors. All must happen together.

• Grow Local Growth Funds
  We need more funds based in Nigeria (or managed by Africans) that understand the risk profile here. These growth-stage funds must have patience, take larger checks, and bear risk that foreign investors avoid.
• Policy Stability & Regulatory Certainty
  Clear rules for foreign investment, stable regulation, easier repatriation of profits, sensible taxation on startups. When policies flip frequently, investors pull back. Government must show it understands growth-stage needs.
• Strengthen Corporate Governance
  Startups must prepare earlier: audited financial reports, boards that include independent members, clearer financial controls. That builds trust for late-stage backers.
• Encourage Exit Market Development
  Stock exchanges need to streamline IPOs for tech companies. Secondary markets for private shares would allow founders and early investors liquidity without waiting for acquisition or IPO.
• Leverage Alternative Financing Structures
  Hybrid structures (debt + equity), revenue-based financing, and convertible notes could help bridge rounds. These structures distribute risk differently and may attract investors unwilling to lead a pure equity round.
• Manage Cost & Efficiency Early
  Founders should build for profitability early: unit economics must be straightforward, margins tracked, and customer retention high. Scaling quickly without sustainable cost base is dangerous.
• Matchmake Corporate Partnerships
  Strategic corporate investors (local or multinational) can provide revenue contracts, distribution channels, and infrastructure support. Working relationships with corporates reduce risk and may be stepping stones to larger funding.

Looking Beyond the Cliff

The Series B cliff is not inevitable for startups. I don’t believe we’re stuck. We have proof of concept in LemFi, Arnergy and a few others that some Nigerian startups can break through. But to shift from a handful of wins to widespread scale, we need maturation in investment behaviour, stronger governance, more stable macro conditions, and growth-stage financing infrastructure.

If I were advising policymakers, I’d push for reforms now. If I were advising founders, I’d urge planning for the scale hurdle from day one. Crossing the cliff will demand discipline, transparency, and patience. But once we do, Nigeria’s startup ecosystem will compete globally.