The country’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed that the vital oil transit route is now completely open to civilian vessels for the duration of the ongoing Middle East ceasefire.

However, military vessels remain restricted, with access tightly controlled through designated routes.

The Strait of Hormuz, responsible for a significant share of global oil shipments, had been effectively shut amid escalating tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, triggering volatility across global markets.

Market Shock: Oil Prices Tumble

The reopening has already sent shockwaves through the global energy market. Crude oil prices plunged by more than 10% following the announcement, reflecting renewed confidence in supply stability and easing geopolitical risk.

For weeks, disruptions in the strait had constrained shipments, with tanker traffic collapsing and hundreds of vessels stranded, amplifying fears of a prolonged global energy crisis.

Ceasefire Diplomacy Driving Recovery

Iran’s decision is tied to a fragile ceasefire framework involving regional actors, including a 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon, alongside broader diplomatic engagements with the United States.

While the reopening signals progress, uncertainties remain. Shipping routes are still regulated by Iranian authorities, and a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian oil exports continues, underscoring lingering geopolitical tensions.

How it will impact  Tech & Digital Economy

Beyond oil, the development has wider implications:

Global logistics reset: Lower energy costs could ease pressure on cloud infrastructure, data centres, and global supply chains

Market sentiment boost: Tech stocks and risk assets are already rebounding on improved investor confidence

Emerging market relief: Countries like Nigeria, heavily exposed to oil price swings, may see short-term economic recalibration

For now, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz marks a critical turning point, one that could reshape energy economics, digital infrastructure costs, and global market stability if sustained.

However, this stability is facing a high-stakes test as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East send oil prices soaring and deplete national reserves.

According to Lukman Otunuga, head of Market Research at FXTM, the currency’s resilience in the face of conflict-induced volatility is commendable, though he warns it has come at a significant price.

“Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves have fallen for 16 consecutive days through April 8, falling to its lowest since mid-February at $48.94 billion,” Otunuga noted.

He highlighted that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has remained committed to its pledge to defend the local currency, even as deepening geopolitical risks punish emerging market assets globally.

The Hormuz Factor: Oil Hits Triple Digits

The global economy was jolted over the weekend as peace talks between the US and Iran concluded without a resolution.

Following 21 hours of failed negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, markets reacted sharply to threats of a naval blockade.

By Monday morning, Brent crude rallied 9%, surging to roughly $104 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, has been effectively closed since late February, raising the specter of severe supply shocks.

“Deepening conflict may keep oil prices elevated, with triple digits potentially becoming a new normal amid extreme supply tightness,” Otunuga cautioned.

Inflation Outlook: A Potential Pivot for the CBN?

Despite the global chaos, there is a glimmer of domestic hope on the data front. Nigeria is expected to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March this week, with analysts forecasting a dip in inflation to 13.4% year-on-year, down from 15.1% in February.

This potential cooling of prices could provide the CBN with the room it needs to shift its monetary policy.

“Persistent signs of easing inflationary pressures may encourage the CBN to cut rates in an environment where other central banks are considering hiking to tame conflict-induced inflation,” Otunuga explained.

Gold and Global Markets

While oil surges, gold remains under pressure. Despite a brief climb back above $4,700, Otunuga suggests that bears remain in control of the bullion market.

With expectations for rate cuts in 2026 diminishing, a stronger US dollar is likely to keep gold on the backfoot, with key support levels currently identified at $4,700 and $4,600.

As the week unfolds, the intersection of domestic inflation data and the volatile US-Iran standoff will likely dictate the direction of the Nigerian economy and the continued strength of the Naira.

As oil prices surged past $100 per barrel and fuel costs climbed by 35% at Nigerian pumps, a troubling paradox emerged: Nigeria, a major crude oil producer with Africa’s largest privately-owned refinery now operational, still found itself buffeted by global energy shocks originating thousands of miles away.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and resulting disruptions to global energy markets exposed the deeper structural challenge facing Nigeria’s economy.

Despite domestic crude production and the operational Dangote Refinery, Nigeria has struggled with rising inflation, which reached approximately 27% in 2025.

The crisis illuminated an uncomfortable truth: decades of import dependency have left Nigeria’s economy precariously exposed to external shocks, even in sectors where the country possesses natural advantages.

This vulnerability extends beyond energy. Nigeria’s technology sector offers a particularly instructive case study in the costs of import reliance, and the transformative potential of local capacity as the pathway to economic stability and technological sovereignty.

Against this backdrop, Zinox Technologies stands as a compelling counternarrative. Founded in 2001 by technology entrepreneur Leo Stan Ekeh, Zinox operates West Africa’s only computerized digital assembly plant.

As Nigeria’s first indigenous computer manufacturer, Zinox demonstrates what becomes possible when vision, investment, and commitment to local capacity converge.

The company’s reach extends beyond traditional computing. Zinox’s innovation spans renewable energy through iPower and home electronics with iTEC, addressing Nigeria’s chronic power challenges with locally-assembled solar solutions and backup systems designed for Nigerian conditions.

This diversification reflects sophisticated understanding: true technological sovereignty requires integrated capabilities.

Zinox’s journey offers a clear case study in how indigenous companies can drive transformation. By focusing on local assembly and manufacturing of computer hardware and digital devices, the company has contributed to building a domestic technology ecosystem that supports government institutions, educational systems, and private enterprises.

This approach not only reduces reliance on foreign imports but also creates jobs, transfers knowledge, and strengthens national capacity.

The implications are significant. Every locally assembled device represents a step away from foreign exchange exposure.

It also signals a shift in mindset, from consumption to production. In a country where demand for technology continues to rise, especially with the acceleration of digital adoption, the importance of local manufacturing cannot be overstated.

Beyond economics, there is also a strategic dimension. Technology is no longer just a commercial tool; it is a defense tool and a national asset.

Countries that control their technology supply chains are better positioned to innovate, secure their data, and compete globally. In this context, companies like Zinox are not merely businesses; they are enablers of national development.

Furthermore, local capacity development has a multiplier effect. It stimulates ancillary industries such as logistics, retail, maintenance, and technical services.

It also fosters entrepreneurship, as more Nigerians gain access to affordable and reliable technology tools needed to participate in the digital economy.

Yet, while progress has been made, there is still work to be done. Scaling local manufacturing requires sustained policy support, infrastructure investment, and a deliberate focus on skills development. It also calls for stronger collaboration between the public and private sectors to create an environment where indigenous innovation can thrive.

Encouragingly, the momentum is building. There is a growing recognition that Nigeria must move beyond being a consumer market to becoming a production hub.

This shift is not only necessary, it is urgent. Global uncertainties will continue to test economies, and only those with strong internal capabilities will remain resilient.

The current global crisis offers clarity. If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened or supply chains to imports are fractured, only countries with strong domestic manufacturing capacity will weather the storm. Those dependent on imports suffer disproportionately.

The story of Zinox Technologies underscores what is possible. It shows that with the right mix of vision and execution, Nigeria can chart a new course, one defined by self-reliance, innovation, and sustainable growth.

As the country navigates an increasingly complex global landscape, the message is clear: the future belongs to economies that build, not just buy.

According to Lukman Otunuga, head of Market Research at FXTM, oil benchmarks are on track for their strongest monthly performance since 1990, driven by escalating concerns over supply disruptions.

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing Iran conflict has pushed crude prices above the critical $100 mark, a key psychological threshold for global markets.

For Nigeria, a net oil exporter, the surge in oil prices presents a potential upside. Higher crude revenues could support foreign exchange inflows and strengthen the naira.

However, this optimism is tempered by broader global risk aversion կապված the geopolitical crisis, which may limit gains.

Global markets have been rattled by conflicting developments surrounding the Iran conflict. Tensions escalated after Iran accused the United States of preparing for a possible ground offensive, even as President Donald Trump signaled openness to negotiations.

While reports of possible de-escalation briefly lifted investor sentiment, inconsistent messaging and continued disruptions to oil supply routes have kept markets volatile.

Beyond geopolitics, investor focus is shifting to key economic data from the United States, particularly the March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The data is expected to provide insight into the health of the US labour market, with forecasts pointing to 65,000 new jobs, recovering from a contraction of 92,000 in the previous month.

The outcome could influence expectations around Federal Reserve policy at a time when rising energy costs are complicating the inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, gold prices have declined sharply, down nearly 14% this month, despite the risk-off environment. A stronger US dollar and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts have weighed on the precious metal, underscoring shifting investor preferences.

Currency markets are also in focus, with the USD/JPY pair crossing the 160 level for the first time since July 2024.

This raises the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities, as seen in previous episodes.

Further volatility may emerge as investors weigh the combined impact of geopolitical tensions and energy market fluctuations, particularly given Japan’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports.

Overall, while higher oil prices provide a supportive backdrop for Nigeria’s economy, persistent global uncertainty and mixed market signals suggest a volatile week ahead for investors and policymakers alike.

Key figures:

• 20% of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz
• Up to USD 147/barrel: a historic level that Brent crude could exceed in the event of a prolonged disruption.

‘A conflict limited to a few days or weeks – the most likely scenario at present – should have a limited impact. However, if the conflict were to continue, its macroeconomic impact could be significant and go beyond the issue of energy prices,’ Ruben Nizard, Head of Sector Research, Coface.

An immediate short-term effect on energy markets

The US and Israeli strikes in Iran mark a major turning point for energy markets. At the opening of trading on the morning of 2 March, Brent jumped by more than 10%, mainly reflecting an increase in the geopolitical risk premium rather than immediate and concrete supply disruptions.

Prior to this escalation, oil markets were largely in surplus. Abundant supply, driven by non-OPEC+ producers and rapid restocking, kept prices under pressure (averaging £68 per barrel in 2025). The conflict is a game changer, reintroducing extreme uncertainty about the security of supplies.

The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic energy chokepoint

The main risk lies in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the oil consumed worldwide and nearly 30% of crude oil seaborne shipments transit. The current disruptions are already leading to higher prices.

The capacity to bypass this strait is limited and insufficient to absorb a major shock. Prolonged or repeated interruptions could plausibly push Brent into triple-digit territory, with the possibility of exceeding the February 2022 peak (122 USD/barrel) or even the 2008 record (147 USD/barrel).

Oil: the risk of infrastructure destruction

Although Iran is not the region’s leading producer, a disruption to its supply would have an immediate impact on already fragile markets.

With more than 3 million barrels per day produced and nearly over 1.5 million exported, mainly to China, an interruption would force buyers, particularly in Asia, to turn to more expensive alternatives, increasing upward pressure on oil prices.

Beyond Iranian supply or a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran could also target oil infrastructure in other Gulf countries.

The impact would then depend on the extent of the damage and the duration of the disruption, in a context where OPEC+’s spare capacity, around 4 to 5 million barrels per day, remains limited and concentrated, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where logistical trade flows could be disrupted.

Ripple effects far beyond oil

The stakes go far beyond the oil market alone. The Strait of Hormuz is also crucial for the transport of liquefied natural gas (LNG), fertilisers, industrial metals (aluminium) and petrochemicals.

In addition, other strategic chokepoints, such as Bab el-Mandeb or the Suez Canal, could also be affected in the event of regional escalation. This could increase freight costs and shipping insurance premiums.

This gradual disruption of supply chains poses a growing risk of shortages and inflationary pressures, particularly for economies that are most dependent on energy imports.

The long-term risk: a global macroeconomic shock

An extreme scenario of oil prices remaining above USD 100 per barrel would trigger a new surge in global inflation and would likely force central banks to reverse their strategy, moving from monetary easing to widespread tightening.

A prolonged USD 15 increase in Brent crude oil prices could thus reduce global growth by around 0.2 percentage points and add nearly 0.5 percentage points to inflation.

In such a context, the risk of stagflation – a combination of weak growth and high inflation – would once again become a credible threat to the global economy, with serious consequences for businesses and international trade.

With key energy installations targeted over the weekend and the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of the world’s oil, effectively closed, Brent crude spiked above $120 per barrel.

This represents a staggering 25% jump in the commodity space, pushing 2026 gains for Brent to over 70%, while WTI crude has rallied nearly 80% year-to-date.

Impact on Nigeria: A Double-Edged Windfall

For major oil producers like Nigeria, the price surge presents a complex scenario. While the country stands to see a significant fiscal boost from the oil windfall, analysts warn that the primary challenge will be putting a lid on domestic inflation.

With global energy costs soaring, Nigeria must strategically utilize these gains for critical budget needs and infrastructure, while simultaneously shielding the economy from the inevitable inflationary shocks that accompany triple-digit oil prices.

Equities Sink as Fear Grips Investors

The flight to safety was visible across all major boards on Monday:

• Asia: Shares plunged as investors scrambled to price in the chaos.
• Europe: Markets opened deep in the red.
• United States: Equity futures signaled a negative open as risk-off sentiment dominated.

In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar and Swiss Franc remain the preferred havens. However, the Canadian Dollar has emerged as the star performer of the month, appreciating against every G10 currency due to its high sensitivity to oil prices.

Gold and the Fed: A Shifting Landscape

Despite the geopolitical chaos, Gold ended last week in losses. While traditionally a safe haven, the yellow metal is currently locked in a daily range, pressured by a broadly stronger dollar and rising energy-driven inflation fears.

Technical analysts suggest that a weekly close below the $5,000 support level could signal a steeper decline.

Meanwhile, the U.S. labour market showed significant cracks on Friday; Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) slid by 92,000, the biggest monthly decline since October 2025, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%.

“Surging energy prices have forced markets to reassess the possibility of lower interest rates,” noted Matthew Anthony, senior market analyst -Africa at FXTM. “Traders are now pricing only a 50% chance that the Fed will cut rates twice in 2026.”

The Week Ahead: All Eyes on CPI

Investors are now pivoting to upcoming U.S. data for clarity. The February CPI and January PCE index (the Fed’s preferred gauge) will be crucial.

If inflation data remains hot, expectations for Fed rate cuts could be further shaved, likely strengthening the dollar and inflicting fresh pain on precious metals and emerging market currencies alike.