Under the Finance Bill 2026 before parliament, the government wants to introduce a 15% capital gains tax on gains made by non-resident investors selling shares abroad when those shares derive value from Kenyan assets or operations.

If passed, the amendment to Kenya’s Income Tax Act would allow the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) to tax transactions completed outside the country, even when the companies involved are registered in foreign jurisdictions such as Mauritius, Delaware, London or the Cayman Islands.

The proposal targets a long-standing structure used by venture capital and private equity firms investing in African startups. Many Kenyan startups operate locally but are incorporated abroad because foreign investors prefer offshore holding companies that simplify fundraising, offer stronger legal protection and make acquisitions easier.

Kenya now wants a share of the profits when those investors exit.

The bill states that gains arising from “the alienation of shares by a non-resident person where the shares derive their value from Kenya” would become taxable locally, regardless of where the transaction happens.

Treasury officials are also seeking powers to tax deals involving “a change of the group membership of a company resident in Kenya” as well as changes in ownership tied to Kenyan property.

The proposed law could impact investor exits in sectors including technology, energy and infrastructure, where offshore ownership structures are common.

For founders and investors in Kenya’s startup ecosystem, the changes may create fresh tax exposure during acquisitions, secondary sales and restructuring exercises carried out at the holding-company level.

The Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Kenya (ICPAK) warned lawmakers that the amendment may go beyond standard asset sales.

“As drafted, the provision may create Kenyan CGT exposure for offshore investor exits, capital raising transactions, group restructurings and internal reorganisations undertaken at holding company level,” the body said.

Kenya’s move follows a string of high-profile disputes over offshore transactions linked to local assets.

Last year, Tullow Oil agreed to sell its Kenyan subsidiary, Tullow Kenya BV, to Gulf Energy in a deal connected to the Lokichar oil project in Turkana. Although the transaction was structured offshore, the KRA issued a KES 21 billion ($161.7 million) tax demand, arguing that the transferred shares drew their value from Kenyan oil resources.

The tax authority took a similar position in the 2017 sale of Java House by Emerging Capital Partners to Dubai-based Abraaj Group. Kenya’s Tax Appeals Tribunal later upheld a KES 773.8 million ($5.9 million) tax assessment after rejecting arguments that the transaction fell outside Kenya’s jurisdiction.

The Finance Bill 2026 also includes other tax measures. Kenya plans to raise rental income tax from 7.5% to 10%, introduce a 20% tax on gambling winnings and impose a 1.5% withholding tax on scrap metal sales.

Most provisions in the bill are expected to take effect from July 1, 2026, if parliament approves them.

Kenya is not alone in strengthening tax rules around offshore deals. Uganda already taxes some offshore transactions linked to local assets, while governments across emerging markets are increasing pressure on multinational investors to pay taxes where economic value is created.

For foreign investors already dealing with a slow funding market across Africa, the proposed tax could complicate and increase the cost of Kenyan startup exits.

The agreement, which expands a partnership the two companies began in 2023, strengthens Amazon’s place in the fast-growing market for advanced computing services.

Amazon said it will invest $5 billion in Anthropic immediately, with a further $20 billion available later if agreed commercial targets are met. That comes on top of the $8 billion Amazon has already invested in the company.

Anthropic, the maker of Claude, said it will use current and future generations of Amazon’s Trainium chips to train and run its models, expecting to secure up to five gigawatts of computing capacity over time.

The company also confirmed that one gigawatt of capacity using Trainium2 and Trainium3 chips should be available by the end of this year.

Giving Anthropic more access to the large-scale infrastructure needed to support high demand, Amazon gets a major long-term customer for its custom-built chips and cloud services.

More than 100,000 customers already use Anthropic’s Claude models on AWS, according to the companies.

Customers will also be able to access Anthropic’s Claude Platform directly through AWS accounts, allowing them to use existing billing, security controls and monitoring tools without separate contracts.

Amazon has invested heavily in expanding data centres and computing power as demand for advanced software tools rises. The company recently said it expects around $200 billion in capital spending this year, with much of that linked to technology infrastructure.

Chief Executive Andy Jassy said Anthropic’s long-term use of Trainium chips showed the progress both companies had made together.

“Our custom AI silicon offers high performance at significantly lower cost for customers, which is why it’s in such hot demand,” he said.

“Anthropic’s commitment to run its large language models on AWS Trainium for the next decade reflects the progress we’ve made together on custom silicon, as we continue delivering the technology and infrastructure our customers need to build with generative AI.”

Anthropic Chief Executive and co-founder Dario Amodei said demand for Claude continued to grow quickly.

“Our users tell us Claude is increasingly essential to how they work, and we need to build the infrastructure to keep pace with rapidly growing demand,” he said.

“Our collaboration with Amazon will allow us to continue advancing AI research while delivering Claude to our customers, including the more than 100,000 building on AWS.”

Amazon shares rose about 2.7% in extended trading after the announcement.

Global liquidity still runs through the dollar, and Nigeria cannot ignore this. Higher U.S. yields make it difficult for emerging markets to attract short-term capital. They also strengthen the dollar, which feeds directly into imported inflation and complicates exchange rate management.

For an economy that depends heavily on oil exports priced in dollars, the relationship is more complex. Stronger oil prices help Nigeria’s external reserves, however, if global dollar liquidity gets tougher at the same time, those improvements can be offset by capital outflows or currency instability.

At the same time, global oil markets are pricing in supply risk. Brent crude has climbed to around $72–$73 per barrel, its highest in about seven months, as geopolitical stresses escalate in the Middle East. 

Meanwhile, equity indices have shown intermittent volatility but are still resilient. The S&P 500 hovered close to the 6,900 area in late February. 

Taken together, these developments show how markets are balancing monetary conditions, spending patterns, and energy risk in early 2026.

Liquidity: Tougher Than in the Past, But Not Restrictive

A balance sheet of roughly $6.61 trillion confirms that policy is no longer in emergency mode, but still large by longer‑term historical standards. 

Interest rates are higher than a few years ago, and the Federal Reserve has been gradually reducing the amount of securities it holds. But that reduction has slowed, and the level of reserves in the system has not fallen far enough to scrape out market liquidity entirely.

Investors are still willing to take risks. Credit spreads have not blown out, and volatility measures like VIX have stayed below crisis levels. Even assets that trade with higher risk premia, such as cryptocurrencies, have seen renewed institutional interest recently.

This dynamic points to a market that seems comfortable with current monetary conditions, even if official policy rates are still restrictive. Expectations of future rate cuts are part of the reason, with markets usually pricing in expected easing well before central banks act.

A huge risk is if inflation proves stickier than expected, the monetary easing investors currently price in may be delayed or even reversed. That would raise yields further and tighten financial conditions more than most anticipate.

Technology Investment: Strong Now, But Not Broad‑Based

Corporate investment in technology infrastructure, especially for advanced computing and data processing, is still a major driver of market and sector performance.

A small group of large technology companies are at the centre of this trend. Their capital expenditure plans, particularly in areas tied to machine learning and cloud infrastructure, have supported earnings growth and aggregate market valuation.

The concentration of earnings in a handful of large firms has lifted headline equity indices. This creates a situation where market performance depends heavily on a narrow segment of the economy.

Outside those core technology firms, earnings growth has been more muted. That is of concern because when valuations are concentrated at the top, any disappointment from those leading firms can ripple quickly across markets.

There is also a link between technology investments and energy consumption. Large data centres require significant power. With tech capex increasing, so is demand for reliable energy supply, connecting the narrative directly to trends in energy markets.

Oil Prices: The Risk That Could Shift the Macro Balance

Globally, prices of oil have increased to levels not seen for months. Brent crude climbing into the low $70s per barrel shows supply risk priced into markets due to geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. 

Recent military action involving the United States and Israel has boosted concerns about supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows. Markets responded, pushing prices higher on the expectation of risk rather than actual physical cuts to supply. 

Reports have even suggested that if firm disruptions occur, Brent could rise towards $80 per barrel, although this is far from certain. 

Higher oil prices feed into consumer and producer cost structures. Transport is expensive, fertiliser and agricultural input prices are high and that can keep inflation elevated even when core goods are subdued. Central banks, monitoring inflation closely, will respond to these challenges.

For oil‑exporting nations, stronger prices support foreign exchange revenues and fiscal positions. For oil importers, the opposite is true, energy costs can squeeze budgets and slow growth.

How These Forces Interact

These three forces, liquidity situations, concentrated technology investment, and expensive energy prices, are not independent.

• If prices of oil continue to increase and push inflation expectations higher, bond yields could increase too. Higher yields tighten monetary requirements even without changes in central bank policy.
• If tech investment slows or earnings disappoint, markets that rely on a narrow base of corporate profits could see more weakness.
• If financial situations get tougher unexpectedly, credit spreads could widen, reducing risk appetite.

Market stability today depends on these forces staying in relative balance. A shift in one can ensure movements in the others.

What to Watch This Week

As we begin March, these indicators are essential:

• Official inflation data from major economies
• Treasury auction results and changes in bond yields
• Weekly oil inventory reports and OPEC+ announcements
• Corporate earnings guidance on capex spending
• Credit market stress indicators such as high‑yield spreads

Small changes in these indicators can influence market expectations.

Liquidity is tougher than in the years following the pandemic, but it has not withdrawn. Technology investment is supporting markets, albeit in a concentrated manner. Oil prices are growing as geopolitical risk premiums increase.

None of these forces alone ends a bull market or derails growth projections. But together, they influence the conditions that markets are currently pricing.

The important focus this Monday is not whether markets will rise or fall, but how these three forces, liquidity, AI and Oil, interact going forward.

This is its fourth straight quarterly increase, with earnings boosted by the value of its investment in OpenAI. 

SoftBank has invested more than $30 billion, holding 11% of the AI firm. By the end of December, it expects total profits from this investment to reach $19.8 billion.

OpenAI is reportedly preparing a new funding round, valued at $830 billion and SoftBank may invest an additional $30 billion alongside Amazon and Nvidia. 

Analysts warn that the conglomerate is now being seen as a publicly traded proxy for OpenAI.

To fund its investments, SoftBank sold parts of its holdings in Nvidia and T-Mobile, raised bonds, and also borrowed against other holdings such as chip designer Arm and its domestic telecom unit, SoftBank Corp. 

The company’s loan-to-value ratio rose to 20.6% in December, up from 16.5% three months earlier. Cash reserves fell to ¥3.8 trillion over the same period.

Masayoshi Son, SoftBank founder and CEO, directly owns 17% of Vision Fund 2, the investment vehicle holding the OpenAI stake. The fund recorded $2.4 billion in valuation profits from OpenAI in the quarter, adding to cumulative profits of $19.8 billion over nine months.

SoftBank’s shares rose 2.4% on the day of the earnings release, slightly ahead of a flat market. The results reveal the company’s heavy focus on AI, showing both the possible rewards and the risks of concentrating investments in a single firm.

The deal places the Japanese group among the company’s most influential outside backers at a time when demand for advanced computing power is increasing.

Masayoshi Son, SoftBank founder, has pushed capital into OpenAI through a mix of direct funding and syndicated co-investment, spreading part of the risk to other investors while keeping strategic control close. 

Of the total sum, $22.5 billion was completed this week, following an earlier $7.5 billion injection in April. Other backers contributed an additional $11 billion through the syndicated structure.

The transaction raises OpenAI’s valuation far beyond where it stood earlier this year. In March, the business was priced at about $300 billion on a post-money basis. 

By October, a secondary share sale had pushed that figure to around $500 billion, according to PitchBook. That instantaneous re-rating shows how quickly expectations have changed across the sector.

Only days earlier, SoftBank agreed to buy DigitalBridge Group for $4 billion, adding a major digital infrastructure investor to its portfolio. 

Taken together, the two deals point to a deliberate strategy which includes control of the software platforms driving computing, while also owning the physical backbone that keeps them running. 

Son has previously described artificial intelligence as the “axis of global technology markets”, and this latest move reveals that belief in concrete financial terms.

OpenAI now sits at the centre of an initiative to build capacity at huge scale. The company is working with Oracle and other partners on Project Stargate, a multi-year data-centre programme designed to support more powerful models and heavier workloads. 

The initiative is expected to cost tens of billions of dollars and ranks among the most ambitious infrastructure efforts the industry has seen.

Across global markets, competition for computing resources has strengthened. Large technology firms are committing vast sums to secure long-term access to data centres, specialised chips and energy supply. 

SoftBank’s wager is similar to that of competitors, but the size of its commitment differs from those typically associated with sovereign wealth funds.

Despite the scale of the spending, SoftBank has said its financial policies stand unchanged, including its approach to leverage and cash management.