Following the Central Bank’s aggressive monetary policy tightening trends throughout 2024–2025, and the first rate cut in September 2025.

The CBN’s data-dependent stance has left markets debating the timing and magnitude of further moves of the interest rate in Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria.

Here are the five top Nigerian interest rate scenarios shaping investor expectations:

Gradual Easing (Base Case)

Most analysts expect measured rate cuts if disinflation continues. Headline inflation fell to 15.52% in November 2025. The CBN average rate in 2026 is 12.94%,

According to the Apex Bank, this would be driven by Naira stability, higher agricultural yield productivity, and higher oil output.

The CBN could cut the MPR by 100–200 basis points across multiple meetings, potentially bringing the rate to the 20–23% range by year-end.

In this scenario, this would ease borrowing costs, support private-sector credit, and help to achieve the projected GDP growth of 4.49% in 2026.

Prolonged High Rates (Hawkish Scenario)

Nigeria’s persistent fiscal pressures could keep rates elevated. The 2026 budget anticipates a deficit of ₦12–24 trillion.

The nation’s debt servicing portfolio is already consuming a large share of the total revenue. According to analysts, this is becoming worrisome.

The MPR could remain above 25% through much of 2026, preserving high yields on treasury bills and bonds but squeezing corporate profitability.

If the country’s borrowing continues to increase in 2026 as anticipated or if oil prices, which are one of the leading government revenue source fall below the assumed $55 per barrel, inflationary pressures could re-emerge. This will thereby force the CBN to hold or even hike the interest rates.

Asymmetric Corridor Adjustments as Early Signals

The domestic investors and international investors via the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) pathways are closely watching the CBN’s asymmetric corridor around the MPR (currently standing deposit and lending rates) for policy hints on the direction that the nation’s economy will go in 2026.

Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) rebounded in Q3 2025, increasing to $720 million, a 700% increase from $90 million in Q2.

Any narrowing of the corridor or shifts in cash reserve requirements could precede formal rate changes. If this happens, it will provide clues about the bank’s bias well before MPC announcements.

Global and External Shocks Scenario

External factors remain a wildcard. Renewed global geopolitical tensions, like the USA and NATO allies’ face-off over Greenland’s control, could impact the global market.

This could also slightly impact the global GDP growth outlook, which the World Bank had projected the global economy to grow by 2.6%  in 2026.

Stronger global financial conditions or a marginal drop in commodity prices could disrupt forex inflows and reignite inflation.

This will compel the CBN to adopt a more cautious stance. More robust remittance inflows could support faster domestic easing.

The next CBN MPC meeting will be held in February 2026. That will be the 304th MPC meeting. The meeting will serve as the first major test of the CBN’s direction for the Full-Year 2026.

The fixed-income investors will hope for much more sustained high rates to lock in yields, while the equity and growth investors eagerly anticipate the easing of the rates in order to drive broader market recovery.

The CBN’s delicate balancing act between inflation control and economic support will define portfolio strategies throughout the year, even as the CBN, the World Bank, and the IMF all project the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.49%, 4.4%, and 4.4%, respectively.

The collaboration focuses on deploying Open Network Stacks, which act like digital infrastructure to help citizens access vital services.

By combining Google Cloud’s AI technology, including its Gemini models, with the World Bank Group’s development expertise, the initiative helps governments quickly create interoperable networks for critical sectors like agriculture, healthcare and skilling.

Citizens can interact with these AI-powered services in over 40 languages, even on simple devices.

The collaboration builds on a successful pro bono pilot in Uttar Pradesh in India that helped thousands of smallholder farmers increase profitability.

To foster a sustainable and open ecosystem, Google.org is providing funding to the new nonprofit Networks for Humanity (NFH), to build universal digital infrastructure; Beckn open network and Finternet asset tokenization, establish regional innovation labs and pilot social impact applications globally.

Summary:

• Google to build an AI-enabled framework based on the open-source Beckn Protocol, helping governments quickly join Open Network Stacks with one-click installers.
• Gemini-based AI agents enabling citizens to interact with government services in over 40 languages on simple devices.
• Building on a successful pro bono pilot in India that demonstrated significant economic benefits, this approach enables governments to deploy critical digital infrastructure “in weeks instead of years.”

With 31 live IPS in 26 countries and another 27 nations preparing to launch their own systems, the report paints a picture of a rapidly evolving financial ecosystem that holds immense promise for Africa’s underserved communities.

In just five years, the volume and value of transactions processed through IPS in Africa have grown by 37% and 39%, respectively.

This growth reflects a broader trend of digital payment adoption, driven by increasing mobile phone penetration, fintech innovation, and regulatory support.

However, while IPS systems are reaching more people, no system has fully achieved mature inclusivity, that enables a broad range of digital payment use cases, accessible to 6, affordable and centered around transparent consumer recourse mechanisms.

Women and other vulnerable groups still face barriers in adopting digital payments due to concerns around security, fraud, and network reliability.

The report underscores that while significant progress has been made, true financial inclusivity remains a challenge.

Recourse mechanisms to address fraud and privacy concerns remain critical gaps, particularly for vulnerable groups such as women, who continue to report feeling unsafe using digital payment platforms.

“AfricaNenda and its partners are calling for a collective push to expand IPS and deliver solutions that cater to every citizen, particularly those in rural and underserved areas. The goal is to ensure universal financial inclusion by 2030, a vision that could be realized if the 27 planned IPS initiatives are successfully implemented” stated Dr. Robert Ochola, CEO of AfricaNenda.

The report’s methodology integrates multiple data sources, including survey responses from IPS operators and central banks, a comprehensive cataloging of IPS systems across Africa, and consumer research conducted in five countries—Algeria, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritius, and Uganda.

Additionally, experts’ interviews from across the continent, alongside detailed case studies from Mauritius, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe, offer a nuanced view of the trends, barriers, and opportunities for IPS in Africa.

Together, these insights provide a holistic understanding of the evolving digital payments landscape and the critical challenges that remain for achieving full financial inclusion.

“Access to safe, low-cost, and efficient digital payments has the potential to transform lives, remove the gender gap in finance, making people in emerging markets more financially resilient and foster growth of digital economy and access to capital for small businesses and women,” said Jean Pesme, Global director, Finance, World Bank. “As SIIPS 2024 shows countries in the Africa region have made remarkable progress on fast payment systems, more needs to be done through new use cases, the promotion of fintech and the involvement of the private sector. As part of its financing and technical assistance and through Project FASTT, the World Bank is helping countries realize the transformative potential of fast payment systems, by learning from each other and driving change to meet market demands.” 

“ECA is committed to partnering with AfricaNenda and key stakeholders to support Member States in building trusted, interoperable, and instant payment systems. This collaboration addresses the growing demand for seamless transaction systems, fostering continent-wide economic integration and financial inclusion, and significantly advancing frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) while aligning with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 for an integrated Africa. The SIIPs report is a valuable contribution, offering the latest rigorous insights that guide progress toward these ambitious goals.” – Stephen Karingi – Director at the Regional Integration and Trade Division of the Economic Commission for Africa.

The SIIPS Report 2024 highlights several opportunities to accelerate progress, from driving innovation through fintech licensing to addressing gender disparities, and ensuring every country has access to a domestic IPS. With more countries building the payment’ layer of their digital public infrastructure, there is a growing sense of momentum toward enabling seamless cross border payments across Africa through a mesh of inclusive and interconnected instant payment systems.

SIIPS Report 2024 is available here.

This was made known when Kashifu Inuwa, the DG NITDA, played host to a delegation from the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation led by Mr. Aleksandar Stojanov at the agency’s corporate headquarters in Abuja.

The meeting was centered on fostering deep collaboration between the two organisations to enhance digital trade, cross-border data services and sharing ideas on developing regulatory policies that would accelerate economic growth through technological innovations.

Speaking on the agency’s move to review most of its regulations, Inuwa outlined the agency’s comprehensive plans and encapsulated the agency’s newly recrafted Strategic Roadmap and Action Plan (SRAP) 2.0 for 2024-2027 as part of efforts toward implementing the presidential renewed hope priority areas in enhancing the country’s digital economy.

“We started with recrafting our Strategic Roadmap and Action Plan 2.0 for 2024-2027 which has 8 strategic pillars among which is Strengthening Policy Implementation and Legal Framework and what we need to put in place to make sure we create an enabling environment for the digital economy and digital trade”, he noted.

He further highlighted key regulatory advancements and revealed that NITDA is at an advanced stage of establishing a National Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) which will underpin the nation’s electronic signature framework. He disclosed that the framework’s development has involved extensive research into international best practices and substantial investment in necessary infrastructure.

Noting the agency’s legal advancements, the NITDA DG said that efforts are underway to push for the enactment of a comprehensive digital economy bill that will incorporate the electronic signature framework and other critical regulatory instruments.

While emphasising the importance of blockchain technology in enhancing the security and efficiency of digital transactions, he averred that a broader blockchain policy is being developed, particularly to focus on the implementation of smart contracts.

Enunciating the upcoming data exchange platform designed to streamline and enhance messaging systems, Inuwa said “We have the Nigerian Data Strategy which will create a balance between the protection and the viability of open data to promote innovation. Because even within the country, we need to allow people to have access to open data for them to innovate and for decision-making.”

The DG disclosed that NITDA’s regulatory department is working on streamlining its regulations in addressing the plethora of existing regulatory instruments to tackle major challenges effectively.

While underscoring the necessity of digitalising Nigeria’s single window and customs procedures, he asserted that NITDA is actively participating in cross-border digital trade protocols which has been enhancing Nigeria’s role in the global digital economy.

“The EU just developed a Cyber Resilience Act which covers all these software and hardware testing issues so we can also have one instrument that can look at the cyber resilience, the software, hardware, firmware issues and even the national cyber security architecture could be part of that” he opined.

He expressed the agency’s willingness to collaborate with individuals, organisations and experts to refine and implement all these strategic initiatives in optimizing Nigeria’s digital landscape.

In his earlier address, Mr Stojanov shared their initial findings from the digital trade regulatory gap analysis conducted by the World Bank on the continent, particularly in Nigeria and how regulations can play a critical role in enhancing it.

He however gave assurances of the World Bank’s eagerness to collaborate and support NITDA in propelling digital trade and cross-border data services.

According to the request is contained in World Bank documents titled, ‘Solutions for the Internally Displaced and Host Communities Project’ and ‘Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project – Scale Up.’

While the IDP loan is put at $500m, the rural access and agricultural marketing project loan is estimated at $550m.

Some of the World Bank loans that are being currently addressed by the global bank have reportedly been initiated under the previous administration of President Muhammadu Buhari

According to the documents provided on the bank’s website, the IDP initiative is meant to improve access to resilient and inclusive basic services and economic opportunities for IDPs and their host communities in displacement-affected local government areas in the northern part of the country.

The Solutions for the Internally Displaced and Host Communities Project, estimated for an appraisal date of February 11, 2025, and slated for approval on April 8, 2025, represents a targeted effort to improve the lives of millions affected by internal displacement due to conflict, violence, and climate challenges.

The Washington-based lender added that the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning would act as the borrower for Nigeria, while the National Commission for Refugee Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons and the North East Development Commission are the implementing agencies.

A breakdown of the funding showed that $30m was proposed to be spent on the project management and support for the implementation of the national policy while $120m will be expended on community development, income-generating opportunities, and social cohesion.

Also, strategic investments for climate-resilient economic development will gulp $320m and $30m on strengthening state and LG institutions for improved service delivery.

The document from the Washington-based lender read;

“The proposed project will utilise a three-pronged approach to develop sustainable solutions for IDPs and host communities in Northern Nigeria. First, the proposed project aims to provide tailored solutions for each of the targeted states and communities, recognizing that each internal displacement situation is specific and localised, with conflict, violence and/or climate challenges presenting a different level and set of vulnerabilities for host communities.

“Gender, age, and special needs of individuals also play a role, as well as the length of displacement, number of times displaced and other factors. Thus, responses will be adapted to address the specific needs of vulnerable populations within displacement-affected states and communities. Second, the proposed project will follow a “People-in-Place” approach, integrating the needs of the people and the impacts on the place where they settle.

“Project activities will aim to improve the provision of infrastructure and basic services as well as livelihood opportunities in an integrated way, moving beyond capital investments to supporting operational improvements and sectoral reforms, and fostering income-generating opportunities within host communities.”

According to a review by a World Bank team, Northern Nigeria, especially in the states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe, has experienced the highest numbers of internally displaced persons.

This is primarily due to the ongoing conflict involving Boko Haram, as well as other factors such as banditry and conflicts between farmers and herders, leading to the displacement of over 3.5 million people.

Borno State alone hosts nearly 1.7 million IDPs, which is over a quarter of its total population and almost half of the total IDP population in Northern Nigeria.

The bank said “Nigeria is considered an FCV country and has one of the largest and fast-growing populations of internally displaced persons in the world, as a result of conflict and natural events. In Northern Nigeria alone, conflict and violence have led to the displacement of over 3.5 million people.

“Over 65 per cent of IDPs in Northern Nigeria are in the NE region (approximately 2.3 million IDPs as of June 2023) 5 and 95 per cent of them are in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (the “BAY states”). Borno, which has been the epicentre of fighting involving Boko Haram since 2014, hosts the highest number of IDPs of any state in the North, with nearly 1.7million IDPs, representing over a quarter of the state’s total population and almost half of the total IDPs in the North.”

The bank added that the inflow of IDPs had put additional pressure on already strained and obsolete infrastructure and services in the host communities highlighting that, “In Maiduguri, IDP inflows have put serious pressure on water supply and sanitation infrastructure and services already under strain before 2014. Due to the inflow of IDPs, daily solid waste generation increased from an estimated 390 tons to 570 tons per day. Solid waste management in Maiduguri is insufficient, with over 60 per cent of residents lacking access.”

The situation is further compounded by the weakening of poverty reduction efforts due to the conflicts and increasing climate shocks, making Nigeria one of the countries with the largest and fastest-growing IDP populations worldwide.

The World Bank’s intervention through the requested loan aims to mitigate the effects by fostering economic opportunities and improving access to basic services, thus contributing to a more stable and prosperous future for IDPs and their host communities in Nigeria.

The recent development suggests that Nigeria’s debt could rise further.  It is understood that most of the current foreign loans had been initiated under the former administration of President Muhammed Buhari, Nigeria’s total debt as of the end of September 2023 was N87.91tn, according to data from the Debt Management Office.

The breakdown of this debt revealed total external debt as N31.98tn ($41.59bn) and total domestic debt of N55.93tn.

In June, the international financial institution approved the first loan of $750m for Nigeria under President Bola Tinubu’s government to boost the country’s power sector through the Power Sector Recovery Performance-Based Operation.

The loan is financed by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which would provide $449m, and the International Development Association would provide $301mn.

Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, recently said that the Federal Government was in talks with the World Bank for a $1.5bn loan to support the budget and provide liquidity in the forex market.

Meanwhile, the Federal Government is on the verge of securing $500m loan from the World Bank to bolster rural access and agricultural marketing in the country.

The new loan project, with an estimated appraisal date of July 16, 2024, is expected to receive board approval on November 28, 2024.

According to information obtained from the bank, this initiative dubbed the Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project – Scale Up, is designed to bridge the gap between rural communities and the broader marketplace, facilitating smoother access to agricultural markets, schools, and hospitals and promoting social cohesion among rural populations.

Although the project is estimated to cost $550 million, the World Bank is offering a commitment amount of $500 million.

The new commitment amount is 79 per cent higher than the initial World Bank commitment amount of $280 million for the parent project.

The Federal Ministries of Agriculture and Rural Development is designated as the lead coordinating body, with support extended by various State Ministries, Departments, and Agencies, including those focused on Works, Environment, and Women’s Affairs.

The RAAMP-SU project aims to enhance the infrastructural and institutional framework necessary for developing, maintaining, and managing Nigeria’s rural road network with implementation planned to begin in the fiscal year of 2025.

The RAAMP-SU initiative extends the scope of the original RAAMP project to encompass additional states previously omitted due to fiscal constraints resulting from inflation and currency fluctuations. Its primary focus lies in enhancing connectivity and bolstering transport infrastructure, aiming to establish direct links between rural communities and crucial agro-logistics hubs, as well as essential social amenities.

The scale-up emphasises not only the physical construction of rural access roads but also the institutional fortification through the establishment of operational Rural Access Road Agencies and State Road Funds, the implementation of Road Asset Management Systems, and the enhancement of road safety management protocols.

Moreover, the project is expected to boost digital outcome monitoring, skill development for rural road management, and the creation of gender-targeted opportunities, reflecting a comprehensive approach to rural development.

With a previous World Bank funding commitment of $280m out of a $575m total project cost, the fresh funding seeks to escalate the project’s impact from 19 to all 36 states of Nigeria, heralding a new era of rural development and agricultural efficiency.

Meanwhile, the World Bank’s International Development Association is seeking a record financing haul to tackle mounting debt and climate crises.

A report by the Financial Times on Sunday said that there was an urgent need for increased funding to tackle the twin challenges of spiralling debt and crisis caused by climate change.

Head of resource mobilisation at the bank, Dirk Reinermann, emphasised the urgent need for the International Development Association to secure its “most substantial replenishment ever” in financial resources.

This replenishment is crucial to facilitate the provision of affordable loans and grants to 75 developing countries.

According to the report, Reinermann did not specify a target, but IDA during its last round of fundraising in 2021 raised about $23.5bn from donor countries. That sum was raised to $93bn after tapping capital markets.

A wave of sovereign debt crises and costs related to mitigating the effects of climate change will require big increases in development funding, analysts said, at the same time as elections and cuts to aid budgets limit the spending appetites of IDA’s biggest donor nations such as the US and UK.

“Some of its biggest traditional donors have stuff going on that makes it harder for them to cough up larger amounts [for IDA],” said a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development think-tank, Charles Kenny.

IDA, which has $235bn of total assets, is seen by governments and policy groups as one of the most effective aid providers in the global fight against poverty, both because it can leverage capital markets to triple its annual windfall and give those funds to poor countries at concessional or marginal rates.

The fund “offers good value for money to donor countries, more than other grant-based facilities”, said a principal research fellow, Annalisa Prizzon, at development think-tank ODI.

IDA has to turn to richer countries to raise capital every three years because its assistance generates little financial return.

Many countries that face a debt crisis will have to pay back more to existing lenders and bondholders than they will receive in new loans. China, a major bilateral creditor, has stepped back from lending, reducing another source of funding for IDA recipient countries.

“Because of the macroeconomic environment, more countries are in difficult economic situations, meaning that they get IDA funding at concession [rates], requiring IDA to deploy more strategic capital,” Reinermann said.

According to Reinermann, this increased line of funding is set to cause IDA to reach the leverage ceiling imposed by its triple-A credit rating sooner than expected.

When IDA raised donor money in 2021, “the zero point for being able to fully leverage our capital at triple-A was in 2034,” he said.

This latest report titled: “Market meltdown – impacts on infrastructure, regulation and innovation” is the 11th in the series spanning 16 years since the inception of the initiative and is sequel to the last edition published in 2022 to coincide with Interswitch’s 20th anniversary.

The report reveals incisive insights from senior decision makers across the global payments industry and outlines global payment leaders’ views on how tumultuous macroeconomic changes over the past two years have affected their sector – for better and worse.

With research undertaken in collaboration with World Bank and supported by Interswitch, FIME and HPS, the 2024 Payments Innovation Jury is the most diverse in its 16-year history.

One hundred and thirty-six (136) Jurors from all over the world participated in the research, all in senior roles at national payments companies, banks, fintechs, payments policy bodies, central banks and investors.

This year, the number of central bank & regulators and investors each increased by 25%, enabling an even more representative picture of the challenges and opportunities ahead.

The Jury was also delighted to welcome several Jury members from South and Central America for the first time, making the insights gathered truly global.

John Chaplin, founder and chairman of the Payments Innovation Jury, and a Senior Advisor to Interswitch comments:

“Looking back on the last two years of market turmoil, it feels like this unique insight from industry leaders has never been more needed. Our Jurors’ deep understanding of the causes and effects of macroeconomic changes and their impact on the long-term direction of the payments industry helps all of us understand how we can best move forward and continue to weather the storm

“I am immensely grateful to each of the 136 members of the Jury for thinking through such complex issues and sharing their views, as well as to the World Bank, Interswitch, FIME and HPS. Their participation and support make the publication of these insights possible, and this report is very much their report.”

According to Mitchell Elegbe, founder and group chief executive officer at Interswitch:

“It is gratifying to see the Global Payments Innovation Jury home in on such a topical and contextually relevant theme for this current research effort, and we are pleased at Interswitch to be collaborating as a sponsor and contributor once again.

We are grateful for the valuable views and insights of experts and leaders representing the jury who are actively shaping the outlook of global payments industry, as well as the commitment and tireless effort of the publication team in ensuring the continuity of this significant initiative which sets the tone for what is to come in the global payments industry.”

The report offers insight into many aspects of the payments industry that were impacted by the recent period of market turmoil.

Key findings include:

1. The primary reason for previously high payment company valuations and funding rounds was investors bidding up deal prices and paying insufficient attention to profitability – a view shared by the investors canvassed.
2. The above has led to a greater focus on earlier profitability over hyper-growth, which the Jury overwhelmingly regard as a positive for the industry – although there’s a lack of consensus on whether this is a long-term market movement
3. Businesses developing AI and climate fintech tools and technologies will benefit from the diversion of investment from payments businesses.
4. In emerging markets where cards have not yet gained a significant foothold, they will struggle to gain cut through when competing with account-to-account payments and mobile money.
5. Credit and debit cards will be hard to dislodge from their leadership role in developed markets, but growth will be much harder to achieve than previously.
6. Banks, rather than fintechs or mobile network providers, will ultimately be the major players in mobile wallets globally.
7. The talent acquisition activities of payment enterprises in developed markets are a significant challenge for those in emerging markets, with almost 60% of Jury members in emerging markets saying that they are losing an unacceptable number of staff with consequential risks to innovation programmes and sometimes even ongoing operations.
8. High-profile crypto exchanges failures, such as FTX in the US, can impact confidence in global markets – not just where the failures occurred. This is clearly a concern for national regulators but remains complex to address.
9. APAC retains its crown as the region with the most payment innovations, but perhaps more surprisingly, Africa & the Middle East was a clear second favourite despite Africa’s macro-economic challenges, relatively low levels of investment funding and now a talent drain – a clear tribute to the resourcefulness of the continent’s entrepreneurs and policy makers.

Importantly, it is a foundational practice of the Payments Innovation Jury that all members participate on an anonymous basis, as this allows them to speak freely – unencumbered by the commercial priorities of their current organisation.

Find the Payments Innovation Jury reports at innovationjury.com

As part of activities to celebrate International Women’s Day and given the dire need to position young women for global participation in the gig economy, the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) in collaboration with NATVIEW and World Bank has successfully rounded off a pilot digital skills development programme called “Gina Mata, Gina Al-Umma”.

The programme was designed to identity, prepare, and connect disadvantaged girls and young women with emerging skills in the knowledge-economy, geared towards integrating gender intentional learning outcomes focused on technical training, soft skills, and right based learnings for young women interested in the tech ecosystem.

At the closing ceremony of the four-day event, Kashifu Inuwa, the Director-General of NITDA, noted that the training programme which is hinged on creating potential economic opportunities, increasing livelihoods, and access to better lives through the Gig economy is in line with the Agency’s mission to place Nigeria on the path to attaining 95% digital literacy by 2030, in alignment with the National Digital Economic Policy and Strategy (NDEPS) 2020–2030.

The DG who recognised the fact that women are underrepresented in the technology sector, avowed that with programmes like the Gina Mata, Gina Al-Umma programme, NITDA aims to bridge the gap by providing young women with the skills and knowledge needed to succeed in the digital economy.

“At NITDA, we are very excited about this partnership with the World Bank, which is in line with our initiative of one million software developers and skills by the end of 2023; Our core mandate is to develop and regulate the information technology sector in Nigeria because believe that the future of our nation lies in the development of its human resources, and as such, we are committed to providing access to training and development opportunities for all Nigerians”, Inuwa stressed.

Inuwa who seized the opportunity to thank the World Bank for driving the initiative and the implementation partner, Natview Technology, acknowledged the importance of partnerships in achieving the organisation’s goals, noting that Natview Technology has a proven track record of delivering quality digital skills development programmes, adding that he is thankful for the execution of the pilot training programme.

He said “Ladies and gentlemen, as we round off this pilot today, let us remember that the digital economy holds vast opportunities for economic growth and development. However, to fully realize these opportunities, we must ensure that all Nigerians, regardless of gender, have access to the necessary skills and knowledge”.

The NITDA Boss urged all the young women who participated in the training to take full advantage of the opportunity to make significant contribution to the digital economy and Nigeria’s development.

Inuwa reiterated NITDA’s commitment to ensuring that the entire citizenry is empowered with information technologies through the development of a critical mass of proficient and globally competitive IT manpower. According to him, NITDA remains poised to actualise its mandate through strategic and inclusive stakeholder management, local and international partnership, and efficient utilisation of resources in the interest of Nigeria.

The Director-General who later presented certificates to the participants, congratulated them and expressed the hope of seeing the positive impact of the programme on the lives of young women in Nigeria.

Meanwhile, the Executive Director, NATVIEW Technology, Nuradeen Maidoki who earlier welcomed everyone to the closing ceremony described the Fasaha: Gina Mata, Gina Al-umma (“Building Women, Empowering Communities”) being implemented by Natview Technology as part of the firm’s contribution towards driving digital literacy and skills across Nigeria.

While appreciating NITDA and the World Bank for delivering digital competency beyond Nigeria, Maidoki said through the initiative, NATVIEW hopes to create a pipeline of highly skilled female technologists who can contribute to innovation and growth in Nigeria’s technology industry as the firm believes that by empowering young women with digital skills, it can create a more inclusive and diverse technology industry that reflects the richness and diversity of the society.

“During the 4-day launch, 200 young women were selected to participate in the digital content creation training. Beyond the digital content creation training, these young women also received skills training that will enable them to participate in the gig economy, which creates a platform for them to earn income from home”, Maidoki noted.

Maidoki said, “the goal of the programme is to train and equip at least 800 girls and young women with digital skills and competencies to be globally competitive in the remote workplace. The pilot launch focuses on training 200 women around digital content creation and marketing while in the future, an additional 600 young women will be integrated from four Northern Nigeria states (Borno, Gombe, Kano, Zamfara) with high FCV cases”.

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Remittances from overseas workers are a vital source of funds for many families around the world, and are an area of payments where, for all parties involved, time is of the essence and every single cent matters.

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) make up the bulk of receivers of these inflows – representing $605 billion of the total $773 billion of incoming remittances in 2021, according to the World Bank.

Thirty LMICs received more than 10% of the GDP in remittances, with eight receiving over a quarter of GDP through these inflows.

However, a lack of access to traditional banking facilities means that cross-border payments can be slow, risky, and expensive.

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World Bank data from the second quarter of this year shows that, on average, a $200 remittance costs the sender 6.01%. Cash-funded remittances, traditionally the most expensive means of sending money, are 6.52%, while digital remittances are 4.8%. Meanwhile, when consumers have access to sufficient information, the figure drops to just 3.35%.

The past six years have seen substantial progress in the transition from cash- to digitally initiated and digital end-to-end remittances.

In the second quarter of 2016, 93% of remittances worldwide were cash-initiated – six years on, the figure had dropped to 66%, with digital end-to-end and digitally initiated transactions at 13% and 21%, respectively, according to VEEI/Devtech Systems analysis of WBG Remittance Prices Worldwide Quarterly data.

By launching two innovative products that make cross-border person-to-person (P2P) payment transactions significantly faster and cheaper, Visa has also introduced sub-Saharan African consumers to a global financial network of billions of users.

In the region, Nigeria received the largest sum of remittances, at $19.2 billion, followed by Ghana ($4.5 billion) and Kenya ($3.7 billion) in 2021.

In Kenya, in a first-of-its-kind market solution in Sub-Saharan Africa, Visa has partnered with ABSA Bank Kenya to launch a domestic and cross-border remittance service via the Visa Global network that will allow seamless money transfers and payments to any of the two billion-plus Visa cardholders in over 100 Fast Funds-enabled markets, in near real-time with the complete security and reliability associated with Visa cards.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, meanwhile, it is estimated that in 2021 Congolese citizens received remittances valued at more than $1.33 billion – in an economy where only an estimated 26% of the population are part of the formal financial system.

Since opening an office in Kinshasa earlier this year, Visa has partnered with a range of stakeholders, including the central bank, financial institutions, fintechs, merchants, and mobile operators to develop the country’s digital payments ecosystem and drive financial inclusion.

With around 650 million mobile phone users, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to some of the fastest growing economies across the globe and is a leader in the adoption of mobile digital payments, according to the World Bank and African Development Bank.

Africans are making frequent trans-national payments related to trade, education, and healthcare, among other things, and this service is giving them a powerful, efficient new option for transacting across borders.

Globally, according to The World Bank, remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries are expected to increase by 4.2 percent this year (2022) to reach $630 billion.

In an increasingly digital and connected world, consumer demand for fast and convenient access to funds is driving opportunity for cross border person-to-person remittances.

By building digitally-enabled infrastructure, driving digital enablement, and fostering an open, interoperable, and secure ecosystem, the rewards of remittance innovation on individuals, communities, and businesses can be realized – driving economic growth for everyone, everywhere.

Through our global platform, Visa Direct, we are helping facilitate this growth, powering a global and open money movement ecosystem and aiding financial inclusion.

These innovative new products in Africa are great examples of how Visa is seizing this opportunity by rethinking the traditional way we receive funds, transitioning from ‘pull’ – using a card almost exclusively to withdraw funds – to a ‘push’ model where card holders can receive payments, as well as make them.

With these products, Visa is not just making the remittance process more efficient, but is introducing millions of people to connected, global platforms and accelerating financial and digital inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa and around the world.

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In conjunction with the IMF/World Bank annual meetings, forecasts released at the July World Economic Outlook in July 2022, projected Nigeria inflation to fall to 17% and an increase in its Gross Domestic Product GDP, to 3.4% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023.

Reprojected in October World Economic Outlook, Nigeria’s GDP is projected to drop to 3.2% in 2023 with a difference of 0.2% in the July 2022 projection.

The IMF estimates that by 2023, Nigeria’s inflation will have decreased to 17% from a projected 19%.

According to the African Development Bank Group (AFDB), Growth will slow, averaging 3.2% from 2022 to 2023 because of the continued low oil production and rising insecurity.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising food, gas, and diesel costs, and continuous supply disruptions are all anticipated to play a part in keeping inflation high in 2022 at 16.9% and above pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

While oil exports are anticipated to slightly increase and capital inflows to rebound, an expected positive oil price shock on exports may be substantially outweighed by a poor output effect caused by lower oil production, which is fueled by inadequate infrastructure and increased insecurity.

The anticipated 0.1% of GDP marginal current account surplus in 2022 could turn into a 0.2% deficit in 2023.

With greater revenue collection, the budget deficit will typically drop to 4.5% of GDP. Furthermore, it is predicted that by 2024, the government debt is expected to reach 40% of GDP due to new borrowing.

From the IMF’s Research Department, Daniel Leigh, the Divisional Chief indicated that the recent increase in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as well as the global fall in the price of crude oil and food are the foundations for the reduced inflation rate forecasts for Nigeria. However, the IMF’s Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of Research, provided guidance to the CBN and its international counterparts on the selection of monetary policy instruments necessary to reduce inflation.

The IMF’s lower growth rate forecast for the global economy in 2023 was consistent with predictions for Nigeria’s GDP growth.

Projections on the global economic growth for 2022 was retained at 3.2%  whereas projected to decrease to 2.7% in 2023.
In a statement describing why it anticipates slower global growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided an explanation:

“The world economy continues to face steep challenges, shaped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis caused by persistent and broadening inflation pressures, and the slowdown in China…”

Curbing Economic Crisis

According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, fiscal policy should not conflict with the efforts of the monetary authorities because otherwise it will only prolong the existing inflation leading to a severe financial crisis. Fiscal policy should also focus on the most vulnerable groups and for a short-term period.

In addition, fiscal policy can aid economies in adjusting to more unpredictable situations by making investments in human capital, digitalization and green energy. Although, with this in place, economies can withstand unexpected future crises, yet he expressed sadness that policies do not follow these concepts.

About the Writer:

Emmanuel Otori has over 10 years of experience working with 100 start-ups and SMEs across Nigeria. He has worked on the Growth and Employment (GEM) Project of the World Bank, GiZ, Consulted for businesses at the Abuja Enterprise Agency, Novustack, Splitspot and NITDA. He is the Chief Executive Officer at Abuja Data School.

The outgone year was marked with some remarkable incidences: President Muhammadu Buhari signed the Electoral Act 2022, the CBN issued a string of controversial announcements, the Nigerian government plans to wean off the subsidy regime starting next year, and 5G made it to Nigeria, however, rollouts have been slow.

These and many more are the highlights that shaped 2022, but in this article, we will be focusing on major events that have been projected to shape the country come 2023.

General Elections

The upcoming general election in February 2023 will be Nigeria’s seventh democratic election. It has been recognized as one of the most significant electoral events in the country’s history of elections as there are more candidates contesting for the presidential seat with more Nigerians becoming politically aware and involved.

And in a historic move, Nigeria will be transmitting its election results electronically for the first time in the upcoming elections, as is contained in the Electoral Act 2022 that promises of a credible election.

Political analysts have praised the signing of the Act, as it foretells of a more transparent electoral system, to allow for the smooth running of the country’s democratic processes. The outcome of the elections will in no small measure determine the extent of economic growth of the country.

CBN’s Domestic Card

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had announced plans to develop a National domestic card scheme which it expects to take off in January 2023. Among its reasons for the card scheme launch, the CBN listed financial inclusion, consumers’ data sovereignty and Enabling banks offer differentiated products and services.

The big question, however, is, does the CBN need to launch a domestic card to achieve these? Currently in Nigeria, there are existing local and international card schemes that are meeting these needs already. These card schemes notably Mastercard, Visa, Verve cards are enabling banks to offer enough differentiated products and services among other card payment benefits.

The Verve card particularly is a Nigerian home-grown domestic card scheme and one of Africa’s most successful indigenous payments cards. It has grown its value proposition and market base to be accepted in over 180 countries and issued in countries across Africa, providing secure and ubiquitous payment options.

Not only are these card schemes delivering on the goals of the proposed domestic card scheme, telecommunication operators, Payment Service Banks (PSBs), Fintechs, Commercial banks, and Microfinance banks are playing in this space to create a more financially inclusive, data secure and product differentiated payment ecosystem.

Another question the CBN will be forced to answer in the new year while launching its domestic card is the ethical question of fairness. Will the CBN be playing fair now that the regulator has also become a player? There has been widespread concern over the ethical disposition of this move.

Experts believe the CBN will want to coerce the banks and even Nigerians (cardholders) to subscribe to the government-owned card.

CBN’s entry into the card business; experts project it will effectively crowd out competition and directly compete with homegrown card as well as other international card companies. They further suggest that instead of playing in the field, the apex bank should remain in its role as a regulator while providing institutional support for existing players, ensuring that they meet the set standards for the benefit of the domestic economy.  2023 will decide.

Slow Economic Growth

The World Bank adjusted its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth for 2023 from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent. The global financial institution noted that the slow growth will be propped by an increase in private consumption, which will be driven by subsiding inflationary pressures.

2022 saw Nigeria record its highest inflation figure since 2005 at 21.15 percent. This inflation was majorly instigated by; disruptions of food distribution network resulting from insecurity, high importation costs, currency depreciation, and a bump in the cost of production.

As the new year unveils, keen expectations will be for the government through the CBN, to be more intentional about its fiscal and monetary policies and proffer business friendly initiatives that will help tackle the challenges affecting macroeconomic growth.

5G Rollout

It’s the era of the 5th generation mobile network which sets to drive faster and enhanced communication. As of June 2022, about 70 countries have deployed the 5G technology, with projections that more users will be onboarded. Earlier last year, Nigerians joined the list of 5G users after an auction process was announced by the National Communication Commission (NCC) for the 3.5GHz 5G spectrum.

With this, the NCC will enable licensed operators with existing infrastructure to provide 5G services to Nigerians, while providing a regulatory framework that will guide these providers of the 5G network on how to protect users.

Although the rollout is not as extensive yet, experts believe the technology holds a trove of benefits for Nigerians, both individuals and businesses.

It is expected that the adoption of this technology will increase opportunities and throw up new businesses with the evolution of blockchain in 2023, which will determine just how much work needs to be done to ensure that advanced technologies are accessible to more Nigerians.

2023, as with any election year, holds a lot of uncertainties, but the hope is that the theme of collaboration endures. Collaboration between the government and private sector players, and collaboration between the government and the citizens to create a robust and efficient economy.

Growth in the Oil Sector

As Europe completely wane itself off the Russian energy and the promises the recently passed Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) holds, Nigeria poses as a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment for oil and gas.

The government has recently redesigned its security strategy along the Niger-Delta corridor to curb installation vandalization and oil theft. The new strategy of engaging the militants in addition to the military operations in the Niger-Delta is expected to increase the daily oil production from 1.22m b/d towards the OPEC stipulated 1.7m b/d.

The government has also speculated it will be removing oil subsidy from its spending in the new year.

Other growth indicators in the oil sector include the recent commercialisation of the government-owned National Petroleum Company-NNPC Ltd which will further liberalise the sector.

The completed Dangote Refinery with its 650,000 b/d is expected to meet Nigeria’s fuel requirement, provided domestic oil prices are cost-effective and fuel imports are lowered.

With all these efficient components brought together; expected foreign investment, increased security, increased daily oil production, removal of oil subsidy and the take-off of the Dangote refinery- the oil sector is going to be a major contributor to the economy’s balance of payment.

The new year indeed looks viable, supposition is that the key players; government, businesses and individuals will take their roles assiduously and deliberately work towards making the new year a productive and prosperous one for all.