If Nigeria’s national grid were a student, it would be the one who keeps promising to study harder but still manages to fail every major exam.
Even with decades of “endeavours,” our power sector always presents the same results: frequent blackouts, high costs of electricity, and an overwhelming reliance on petrol and diesel generators.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy serving a population of over 200 million, has an installed generation capacity of 13,000MW, but actual power output does not go beyond 4,000MW—far below the estimated demand of 30,000MW.
Businesses lose billions annually due to unreliable power, while households are unable to keep the lights on.
Hence, we wonder if Nigeria should continue banking on fixing its dysfunctional national grid, or if it’s time to take up a decentralised alternative—mini-grids?
While the national grid collapses under systemic failures, mini-grids have been seen as a feasible solution, particularly in off-grid communities.
But can they scale fast enough to bridge the energy deficit? Or would hybrid just be the best solution?
Let’s discuss!
The National Grid: Can it be Fixed?
Nigeria’s national grid, managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) and serviced by private electricity distribution companies (DisCos), is unreliable till today.
The country has experienced repeated grid failures over the years, with 2024 recording 12 collapses, implying systemic weaknesses.
As of February 23, 2025, two major grid failures have already been reported this year. The first occurred on February 12, 2025, at 11:34 a.m., resulting in nationwide blackouts.
Several electricity distribution companies, including Ikeja Electric and Abuja Electricity Distribution Company, confirmed the outage and worked to restore supply.
However, the TCN denied that this was a full grid collapse, instead attributing the incident to a transmission line trip at the Omotosho-Ikeja West 330kV line.
While consumers are left in prolonged outages, official explanations downplay the severity of the problem, leaving millions inconvenienced.
Why Does the National Grid Keep Failing?
- Ageing Infrastructure: Much of Nigeria’s transmission network is outdated and prone to breakdowns.
- Transmission Bottlenecks: Even when power is generated, it usually cannot be efficiently transmitted due to network limitations.
- Revenue Shortfalls: DisCos find it hard to recover costs due to electricity theft, billing inefficiencies, and non-cost-reflective tariffs.
- Regulatory & Political Barriers: Government policies usually interfere with market-driven electricity pricing and investment.
- Heavy Reliance on Fossil Fuels: The national grid is highly dependent on gas-fired power plants, leaving it vulnerable to fuel supply disruptions.
Nonetheless, the government is working to overcome these challenges and expand and modernise the grid. The Siemens-backed Presidential Power Initiative (PPI) aims to boost generation and distribution capacity.
However, results have been slow, and many Nigerians are sceptical about whether the grid can ever meet the country’s energy requirements.
Mini-Grids: A Decentralised Alternative
So mini-grids—independent, small-scale electricity systems—might just be the solution to the national grid’s weaknesses. These decentralised power solutions, often powered by renewable energy sources like solar and hydro, have been particularly effective in rural communities where the national grid is either absent or unreliable.
Advantages of Mini-Grids
- Reliability: Mini-grids operate independently, meaning they are not affected by national grid failures.
- Scalability & Faster Deployment: Unlike large power plants, mini-grids can be deployed quickly, often in under a year.
- Sustainability: Many mini-grids rely on solar and hydropower, reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
- Lower Transmission Losses: Since they generate power close to consumers, mini-grids avoid the high transmission losses associated with the national grid.
Challenges of Mini-Grids
- High Initial Costs: Mini-grid projects require high upfront investment, making them difficult to scale without subsidies.
- Regulatory Uncertainty: Nigerian energy policies are focused on grid expansion, creating hindrances for mini-grid investors.
- Limited Capacity for Industrial Use: While great for households and small businesses, mini-grids may be unable to support large industries, unless strategically allocated.
With strategic planning and allocation, mini-grids can be designed to support specific industrial activities. For example, integrating productive uses of electricity, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and service sectors, can enhance the economic viability and sustainability of mini-grids.
Several successful mini-grid projects in Nigeria, such as Rubitec Solar in Lagos and Husk Power Systems in Nasarawa, show that this model can be successful. However, general adoption requires policy changes and financial support.
Comparing the Two Models: National Grid vs. Mini-Grids
| Factor | National Grid | Mini-Grids |
| Reliability | Prone to frequent failures and instability | More stable in localised areas |
| Affordability | Subsidised but unreliable | Higher upfront cost but predictable pricing |
| Scalability | Expensive and slow expansion | Faster deployment, modular growth |
| Sustainability | Dependent on gas and diesel | Renewable energy-driven |
| Policy Support | Existing infrastructure but bureaucratic | Growing support but regulatory limitations |
What Works Best? The Case for a Hybrid Approach
Given the weaknesses and strengths of both models, Nigeria needs a hybrid approach. While the national grid is essential for industrial power needs, mini-grids can provide reliable electricity for communities and small businesses.
Key Recommendations:
- Grid Modernisation: Invest in smart grids, improved transmission infrastructure, and decentralised generation.
- Mini-Grid Incentives: Provide subsidies and regulatory support to attract investment in mini-grids.
- Public-Private Partnerships: Leverage private sector expertise to develop both grid and off-grid solutions.
- Renewable Energy Integration: Scale up solar, wind, and hydropower generation across both national and mini-grid networks.
Nigeria’s electricity problem demands assertive reforms and innovative solutions. While the national grid is important, its frequent failures ascertain the need for alternative energy models.
Mini-grids provide a decentralised, renewable, and resilient solution that can complement the national system.
Hence, policymakers need to take up this hybrid vision, or Nigeria’s power sector will continue to operate in the dark.
