A new study by global tech strategists Juniper Research has revealed that the value of subscriber losses arising from mobile messaging fraud will shrink by $9 billion next year.
This represents a decline from $80 billion in 2025 to $71 billion in 2026. These losses include losses to tactics such as smishing and account takeover (ATO) fraud.
The study attributed this to reduced demand for global SMS business messaging traffic, as well as enhanced firewall capabilities which make it increasingly difficult for fraudulent actors to bypass detection systems.
“The value of SMS is declining for fraudulent players. Diminishing message volume make it more difficult to conceal fraudulent traffic in legitimate traffic; driving up costs and eroding monetary gains for bad actors,” explained Ardit Ballhysa, senior research analyst at Juniper Research.
Operators Must Still Prepare for Long-term Fraud
However, Juniper Research warns operators that fraudulent players will evolve tactics to evade detection, even as messaging traffic declines. To stay ahead, Juniper Research believes that operators must implement firewalls with deep content inspection; enabling accurate detection of fraudulent links and media – capabilities that go beyond simply screening sender IDs.
“Deep content inspection will allow operators to identify emerging fraud patterns in real time. By analysing message content, rather than just the source, operators can not only block new fraud vectors faster, but also better protect subscribers as traffic shifts toward RCS. RCS provides richer media in messaging content, which opens the door to more sophisticated scams,” Ballhysa concluded.
The new research suite offers the most comprehensive assessment of the mobile messaging fraud prevention market to date, including insightful market analysis and in-depth forecasts for over 60 countries.
The dataset contains over 36,000 market statistics within a five-year period.
It includes a ‘Competitor Leaderboard’ and an examination of current and future market opportunities.
