As the curtain falls on the National Broadband Plan (NBP 2020–2025) this December, Nigeria finds itself in a bittersweet position.
While internet usage has surged, the country has officially missed its crown-jewel target of 70% broadband penetration, stalling at 50.58% as of November 2025.
While the 144.7 million Nigerians now connected to the internet represent a significant achievement, the 20% deficit reveals a widening digital divide.
Here is Techeconomy’s autopsy of why Nigeria’s “Digital Leap” fell short of its mark:
1. The Smartphone Affordability Paradox
The National Broadband Plan was built on the assumption that entry-level 4G smartphones would be accessible to the average Nigerian at approximately ₦18,000.
However, the reality of 2025 tells a different story. Driven by persistent Naira devaluation and import duties, the cheapest 4G/5G enabled devices now retail for over ₦100,000.
This 400% price hike has transformed a “basic tool for inclusion” into a “luxury item,” effectively locking out millions of low-income citizens from the broadband net.
2. The “Vandalism Epidemic”
Infrastructure security remains the Achilles’ heel of the Nigerian telecoms sector. According to NCC reports and operator data, the industry suffers an average of 30 to 43 fiber-optic cable cuts every single day.
These are not just accidents; they are often the result of construction negligence or targeted sabotage.
Every cut requires immediate, expensive repairs, diverting capital that was originally earmarked for expanding network coverage into underserved “white spaces.”
The Right-of-Way (RoW) Standoff
Despite the Federal Government’s push for a harmonized Right-of-Way fee, many states continue to treat telecoms infrastructure as a “cash cow” rather than a developmental catalyst.
Prohibitive fees for laying fiber-optic cables have discouraged operators from expanding beyond high-yield urban centers like Lagos and Abuja, leaving the “Hinterland” in a persistent digital blackout.
4. Capital Flight and Investment Inertia
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the telecoms sector has faced a downturn. Global investors, wary of foreign exchange volatility and the high cost of doing business in Nigeria, have slowed the flow of capital needed to deploy the massive “Last Mile” infrastructure required to hit the 70% mark.
The Silver Lining: Data Consumption at All-Time High
Paradoxically, while the number of users didn’t meet the target, those who are connected are using more data than ever before.
- November 2025: 1.23 Million Terabytes consumed.
- Growth: A 34.96% increase in data usage year-on-year.
This suggests that while the quantity of users is lagging, the quality of engagement is deepening, driven by the rise of the digital economy and remote work.
The 2026 Strategy
With the January 1, 2026 Tax Reforms on the horizon, industry experts are calling for a “Broadband 2.0” strategy.
By exempting 97% of small businesses from corporate tax, the government may provide the indirect stimulus needed for local ISPs to finally bridge the “Last Mile” gap that the 2020–2025 plan could not.
