In 2026, economic growth in Africa is expected to be between 4.0% and 4.6%, overtaking many other regions and, in some forecasts, even overtaking Asia’s growth rate this year.
This sounds good, but unfinished. For over a decade, the idea of “leapfrogging”, where technological innovation and youthful dynamism could help African economies skip over traditional stages of development, has impacted how policymakers and investors talk about the continent.
It gave a fresh direction that bypassed challenges like weak infrastructure or limited industrial capacity.
But now there’s a risk of misleading us. The growth we see is uneven, weak, and so not sufficient to address unemployment, poverty or structural delays that have affected Africa’s economic experience for years.
The challenge now is focused on managing delays, the slow progress in institutions, infrastructure, human capital and investment that determines whether growth can be sustained and inclusive.
What Leapfrogging Aimed For
Leapfrogging was desirable because it brought speed. Digital financial services, mobile money, e-commerce and fintech platforms spread fast across large parts of Africa.
Places without legacy banking infrastructure suddenly had greater financial inclusion. In some urban centres, tech startups have created buzz and jobs far quicker than in older industrialised economies.
These are great achievements, but they are mostly sectoral effects, not an all-around structural transformation.
Leapfrogging assumed that technology could, by itself, overcome historical bottlenecks, that economies could reach high productivity, wide job creation, and regional integration without the foundational work that sustained development in the rest of the world.
Today, we see something totally different.
Economic Growth in 2026 is Stronger for Africa, but Still Waiting
The latest United Nations and IMF data show Africa’s growth prospects are improving. A United Nations study forecasts the continent’s economy expanding by 4.0% in 2026, up from about 3.9% in 2025, while the IMF projects 4.4%.
This growth will be supported by macroeconomic stabilisation and reform progress in some large economies.
But then, weaknesses are still standing/
- Economic gains are still uneven across regions, with East Africa growing faster than Southern Africa and Central Africa.
- Growth is concentrated in extractive industries rather than diversified, labour-intensive sectors.
- Per capita incomes are still low compared with those in emerging Asia or Latin America.
So while the headline growth looks respectable, its translation into jobs, incomes and poverty reduction is weak.
What We Mean by “Lag”
To understand why managing delay is important, we need to understand the specific structural delays that hold growth back.
1. Institutional Frictions and Policy Lags
Institutions such as courts, regulators, contract enforcement, impact investor confidence and the cost of doing business.
Weak governance slows investments and increases risk premia. It is not uncommon to see foreign investors hesitate, not because of global conditions, but because policies and legal frameworks change unpredictably or take years to implement.
Delays here are not minor, are economic challenges that compound over time.
2. Infrastructure Gaps That Slow Everything Else
Infrastructure is a fundamental limitation. Roads, rail, ports, power and logistics are the arteries of any economy.
A 2025 OECD and African Union report shows that to double Africa’s GDP by 2040, annual infrastructure investment would need to increase significantly, from around $83 billion to about $155 billion.
Without such investment, markets will continue to be fragmented, supply chains inefficient, and costs high. It isn’t just that projects are slow to complete. Often they are delayed for years due to financing gaps, bureaucratic procurement, or land disputes.
3. Financing Restrictions and Debt Burdens
Debt is another aspect of delay. Many African governments face high debt-servicing costs that absorb large portions of their revenue.
In 2025, around 40% of African countries were in or at high risk of debt distress, forcing fiscal tightening and limiting public investment.
Borrowing costs are high and access to affordable long-term finance is limited. That means delays in building schools, hospitals, factories, and even reliable energy systems.
4. Human Capital and Demographic Pressure
Africa’s population is young and growing fast. That should be an advantage. But without parallel investment in education, health, and skills, it becomes a liability.
Countries are creating millions of new workers every year. Prepare them with skills too slowly, and the result is unemployment or underemployment.
This is happening now, affecting productivity and social stability.
Structural Drag in Practice: Case Examples
South Africa
South Africa’s economy is under structural drag despite signs of improvement. Growth is moderate, roughly 1.4% in 2026 according to recent IMF analysis, even as governance and financial oversight have improved.
Debt levels are high and political consensus on fiscal frameworks weak. These delays, in policy, reform and investment, are slowing what could otherwise be a stronger recovery.
Kenya
Kenya’s central bank has cut interest rates repeatedly to stimulate lending, and the economy continues growing at a solid pace, with projections around 5.5% in 2026.
That is good, but drought risk, external shocks, and infrastructure bottlenecks still temper what growth can produce. The economy shows that faster growth doesn’t automatically solve deep structural lags.
Botswana
Botswana is expected to rebound to about 3.1% growth in 2026 after contractions in prior years, driven by transitions in its key diamond sector.
But debt and a significant budget deficit are emerging challenges. Even with a rebound, long-term diversification and sustainable growth are delayed by economic dependencies.
Why Delay Management is Essential
This focus on delays is not pessimism. It is realism grounded in the way economies actually transform.
- Sequencing. Good policies implemented in the wrong order, or without institutional support, can stall or reverse gains.
- Investors value predictability. They won’t commit at scale if frameworks change with little warning or if legal protections are weak.
- Addressing bottlenecks multiplies profits. A reliable power grid does more for productivity than a faster startup ecosystem alone. Functional courts do more for long-term contracts than flashy innovation hubs.
When we talk about Africa’s economic sustainability, we should focus as much on how long structural fixes take and what slows them as we do on headline innovation narratives.
A New Growth Playbook
If leapfrogging is giving way to a deeper focus on delay management, what must change?
- Strengthen Institutions: Transparent rules, enforcement, and stable policy environments reduce uncertainty and cost.
- Invest Strategically in Infrastructure: Close financing gaps and prioritise projects that ensure market connectivity and productivity.
- Expand Human Capital: Build skills that match emerging labour markets, particularly in technology, engineering and services.
- Strengthen Regional Integration: Trade limitations between African states still makes growth slow. The African Continental Free Trade Area must get to implementation.
These are the investments that underpin growth that lasts.
The leapfrogging case was never wrong to highlight innovation. But it was incomplete.
Today, Africa needs to confront the delays embedded in institutions, infrastructure, human capital and finance to ensure economic growth in 2026. These delays don’t vanish with technology; they require focused policy, patience and long-term investment.
If Africa can master these delays, we will see growth that is faster, more inclusive, more stable and more transformative in citizens’ lives.
