Despite recent gains in foreign exchange stability and cooling inflation, Dr. Ike Chioke, Group Managing Director of Afrinvest West Africa, has maintained stance on what Nigeria must do to achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2031.
Speaking on the feasibility of the federal government’s ambitious target during a recent ThisDay interview, Dr. Chioke, noted that the current economic momentum remains significantly below the double-digit trajectory required to bridge the gap from the current $240 billion valuation to the trillion-dollar mark.
The Math of the Trillion-Dollar Dream
Dr. Chioke highlighted a massive growth deficit in the current projections. While the government is eyeing a $1 trillion economy, Nigeria’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 is pegged at just above 4%.
According to Afrinvest’s analysis, the math simply does not add up under current conditions.
The High-Growth Scenario:
- If Nigeria grows at 15% annually: The GDP would only reach approximately $550 billion by 2031, barely half of the target.
- The Required Scenario: To actually hit $1 trillion by 2031, Nigeria would need to maintain a compounded annual growth rate of above 25% starting immediately.
“To achieve a $1 trillion economy, Nigeria’s GDP will need a double-digit growth compounded… 12 to 15 per cent per year is not even enough,” Chioke explained. “This would mean that the Nigerian economy by now will be pumping practically on all sectors consistently.”
The Election Factor and Policy Friction
Beyond the purely mathematical hurdles, Afrinvest identified the 2027 General Elections as a major headwind. History shows that as election cycles approach, the business of governance and critical policy execution often take a backseat to political maneuvering.
Key Constraints Identified:
- Political Distraction: Policy execution is likely to be sidelined by 2027 politics.
- Momentum Gap: Achieving 25% growth requires unprecedented productivity across every sector, from manufacturing to tech, which hasn’t yet materialized.
- Current Baseline: A 4% growth rate in 2025 is insufficient to serve as a launchpad for the $1 trillion goal.
The $1 trillion target was always a stretch goal, but Afrinvest’s reality check underscores the gravity of the challenge.
While the Naira’s appreciation and FX inflows are positive signals, they are stabilization factors rather than exponential growth drivers.
For the $1 trillion dream to stay alive, the federal government must look beyond mere stabilization and find a way to trigger industrial-scale productivity.
Without a 25% year-on-year growth miracle, the 2031 target remains mathematically out of reach, potentially ending up as another ambitious policy aspiration unmet by economic reality.
