A few months ago, when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) confidently predicted a 4.17% GDP growth for 2025, it felt a bit like promising a three-course meal in a kitchen that’s still on fire.
We clapped. We nodded. Some analysts even spoke enthusiastically about “renewed hope” and “stabilising fundamentals.”
Meanwhile, inflation was eating through the pockets of Nigerians faster than termites on wet wood.
By April’s end, reality, as it usually does, is starting to issue corrections. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have just weighed in with their own 2025 projections, and unsurprisingly, they carry a lot less confetti.
The economy isn’t crashing, thankfully. But it certainly isn’t sprinting toward the land CBN promised either.
What Was Predicted Back in January, and now in April
CBN’s January 2025 Forecast
- Projected 4.17% GDP growth for the year.
- Hoped for a strong rebound, pointing to monetary improvement, fiscal discipline, and oil sector recovery.
World Bank’s April 2025 Forecast
- Predicts 3.6% GDP growth.
- Highlights service sector expansion but warns that inflation, insecurity, and weak revenues are pressing hard on growth.
IMF’s April 2025 Forecast
- Sees 3.0% GDP growth.
- Emphasises Nigeria’s chronic structural weaknesses, including infrastructure gaps, poor electricity supply, and fiscal fragility.
The difference between 4.17%, 3.6%, and 3.0% may look small, but it’s the gap between slow recovery and yet another lost year.
Where We Are Today: April 2025 Reality
Since then, a lot has happened, just not necessarily the kind of “happening” that drives rapid GDP growth for Nigeria in 2025.
Inflation Has Been the Reluctant House Guest
Inflation is still stubborn, sitting at 24.23%. This is lower than late 2024’s panic levels, but still high by any standard. Food prices alone have risen by over 21.79% year-on-year, squeezing consumer spending, slowing down retail trade, and practically laughing in the face of monetary tightening initiatives.
The CBN’s interest rate now stands at a suffocating 27.50%, choking credit access for small businesses, the very engine Nigeria needs for organic growth.
Oil Production
We’re pumping around 1.35 million barrels per day, far below the OPEC quota of 1.5 million. Oil prices have been slightly favourable (averaging $80/bbl), but production inefficiencies and rampant oil theft are cancelling out any revenue profits.
The hope of oil saving Nigeria’s budget in 2025 is fading, slowly.
Services Sector
The service sector, especially ICT and fintech, has been resilient. Fintech apps, creative startups, and even small consulting firms are growing.
However, insecurity, particularly in northern and middle-belt regions, has made service delivery in sectors like health, education, and logistics riskier and more expensive.
So, Were the Predictions Accurate?
The short answer?
Mostly not.
The long answer? Let’s break it down:
| Projection Institution | January 2025 Prediction | Reality So Far (April 2025) | Accuracy Verdict |
| CBN | 4.17% GDP growth | Unlikely without miracle improvements | Overly optimistic |
| World Bank | 3.6% GDP growth | Possible but challenging | Moderately realistic |
| IMF | 3.0% GDP growth | Most aligned with current indicators | Most realistic |
In simple terms:
- The CBN’s 4.17% prediction currently looks unrealistic unless the second half of 2025 brings a sudden economic surge.
- The World Bank’s 3.6% is achievable but would require growth across multiple sectors.
- The IMF’s 3.0% seems to be the most realistic.
I personally think even 3% might end up being generous if reforms continue at the current sluggish pace.
Risks and Opportunities as We Move Forward
The Risks
- Inflation: There’s no quick fix. Nigeria’s inflation is as much about supply bottlenecks as it is about monetary policy.
- Naira Instability: The exchange rate remains unstable despite FX market reforms.
- Security Problems: Banditry, kidnapping, and insurgency are costing businesses billions and discouraging investment.
- Policy Uncertainty: Good reforms on paper, but execution is weak and politically fragile.
The Opportunities
- Digital Economy Growth: Tech startups and the creative economy are scaling, opening real opportunities for job creation and exports.
- Agricultural Reforms: The African Development Bank’s $2.2 billion investment in special agro-industrial processing zones could be a game-changer if properly implemented.
- Energy Transition: New investments in gas and renewables could diversify Nigeria’s energy earnings over the next five years.
Final Reflection
At the start of 2025, we were sold a promise of stabilisation and growth. Now in the second quarter, we see that stabilisation is still a work in progress, and growth is no guaranteed outcome.
Nigeria isn’t sinking.
But it isn’t flying either.
If Nigeria can wrestle inflation lower, stabilise oil output, and genuinely unlock the non-oil economy, then maybe — just maybe — we’ll edge close to the World Bank’s 3.6% projection.
Otherwise, we’ll land squarely where the IMF expects: slow, painful growth dragged down by the same old problems.
Either way, in Nigeria’s economy, Renewed Hope is necessary — but hope without execution is just another unpaid bill.
