Apple has made a strong comeback, recording a 15% year-on-year rise in iPhone sales between April and May.
This is its best two-month performance since the COVID-19 era and the profits are largely tied to renewed demand in China and the United States, its two largest and most volatile markets.
The latest data from Counterpoint Research show Apple reclaiming the top spot in China for May. But it didn’t happen by chance.
The company rolled out aggressive discounts, as high as 2,530 yuan ($351), across e-commerce platforms in China, a move seen as necessary to compete with a fast-rising Huawei and other domestic rivals. Despite the bump in sales, this pricing strategy signals that Apple is under pressure.
“Q2 iPhone performance looks promising at the moment, but as always, swings either way are dictated by two markets – the U.S. and China,” said Ivan Lam, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research.
Apple is manoeuvring around geopolitical and economic challenges. In response to former President Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on non-U.S.-made iPhones, Apple rerouted 97% of its India-produced iPhones to the U.S. between March and May. This tactical shift helped shield the company from higher import costs, for now.
Still, the Chinese government has excluded Apple from some public sector subsidies, and Huawei is regaining the top place in the local market. Analysts believe this could drive Apple’s shipments down in 2025, even if the broader Chinese smartphone market grows by an estimated 3%.
The impact of global trade shifts isn’t limited to distribution routes. High tariff issues are beginning to affect product pricing. Counterpoint warns that Apple’s iPhone 17 series, expected next year, could come with higher price tags as production costs jump by an estimated $900 million due to U.S. tariffs.
Globally, Counterpoint has revised its 2025 smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9%, down from an earlier projection of 4.2%. The revision shows the worries over tariff disruptions and economic instability across major markets.
Despite short-term wins, Apple is still facing challenges. Between the strategic rerouting of production, deep discounts, government policy shifts, and growing local competition, the company is walking a tightrope.
And while sales are up today, sustaining that growth will depend on how well it can keep both the Chinese and American markets on its side.
