Asian markets fell on Monday as a result of Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the US presidential race, which fueled fresh uncertainty as traders, however, appeared unaffected by China’s decision to cut interest rates to boost its struggling economy.
Following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend and the subsequent Republican convention, there was a surge in bets that he would win the upcoming November election. Investors were now assessing the implications of the latest news from the White House.
On Sunday, Biden yielded to weeks of pressure for him to step aside after a poor debate performance that raised concerns about his health and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor.
This news has left traders questioning who will ultimately go head to head with Trump, whose anticipated victory had previously driven up equities and the dollar due to expectations of tax cuts and deregulation.
Analysts said markets would likely be volatile in the near term.
“While market instinct will be to say that the news adds a degree of uncertainty to the outcome of the 5 November election that wasn’t present last week, it will be many weeks… before anyone can reasonably determine if the race for the White House is significantly narrower than looked to be case previously,” said National Australia Bank’s Ray Attrill.
“In short, there’ll be more noise than signal on US politics for markets to contend with in the coming few weeks at least.”
Stocks in Asia fell Monday following losses on Wall Street and in Europe, where trade was dominated by a crash in global computer systems — the result of a faulty update to an antivirus program — that hit airports, airlines, trains, banks, shops, and even doctors’ appointments.
Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Mumbai, Wellington, and Manila all fell, though Hong Kong rallied thanks to healthy gains in Chinese tech firms.
London, Frankfurt, and Paris all rose at the open.
Stephen Innes said in his Dark Side of the Boom commentary: “It’s as if the political game of chess has flipped its board, and investors are left picking up the pieces.
“This unexpected twist has injected a hefty dose of political uncertainty into the market, leaving everyone scrambling to determine their next move.”
The developments out of Washington have overshadowed optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as September and possibly again before January.
There was little reaction to the news that China’s central bank had cut borrowing costs as leaders look to kickstart the world’s number two economy, which has been hammered by a huge property crisis and weak consumer demand.
The Bank of China lowered the one-year and five-year loan prime rates in a bid to encourage commercial banks to grant more credit.
The decision comes after a closely watched meeting last week of leaders concluded with few major announcements, bar vows to tackle “risks” in the economy.
However, officials pledged Friday to help ease debt pressure on local governments through reforms to the tax system.
Worries about local government finances have been growing for years and have been made worse by a chronic real estate debt crisis, and in April ratings agency Fitch lowered its outlook on China’s sovereign credit.
– Key figures around 0815 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.2 percent at 39,599.00 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.3 percent at 17,635.88 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.6 percent at 2,964.22 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.4 percent at 8,187.5
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0891 from $1.0885 on Friday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2926 from $1.2914
Dollar/yen: UP at 156.80 yen from 157.47 yen
Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.26 pence at 84.27 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.3 percent at $80.40 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $82.89 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.9 percent at 40,287.53 (close)
AFP
