Reporter: TOBI ADETUNJI
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that global fragmentation could shave off 7% of the Global Gross Domestic Product.
Noting that although the world is facing complex challenges, addressing them demands cooperation at the global level.
This was detailed in the January edition of the world Economic Forum Report, tagged “The Global Cooperation Barometer 2024INSIGHT REPORT JANUARY 2024”
The Global Cooperation Barometer 2024 presupposes an approach to measure the current state of global cooperation, which is meant to serve as a tool for leaders to better understand the contours of cooperation broadly and along five pillars – trade and capital flows, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security.
The IMF also predicted that the Economy is in a fragile state and poised to be well below historical average. “Today’s economy is in a fragile state, with growth expected to be well below the historical average. Revitalizing trade will be crucial to strengthening the economic outlook ahead and boosting livelihoods.
Similarly, technological innovation is key to boosting currently sluggish productivity growth, with generative artificial intelligence (AI) holding extraordinary potential – $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion. It noted that the “annual value across industries, as estimated by the McKinsey Global Institute, indicate that the only way to unlock this benefit and manage undesirable consequences is through global coordination.
Accordingly, the Climate change also requires governments and businesses to work together to reach net zero, adapting to shifts in climate already locked in by previous emissions, and do all of this in a way that supports economic development across the globe.
Just like the health of the planet, the health of people requires cooperation globally between governments and businesses.
Long-term advancements in health and immediate responses to acute crises like pandemics require parties around the world to work together.
Yet, in terms of addressing the health and well-being of people and the planet, the world appears off course, with just 15% of the Sustainable Development Goals on track.
Highlighting the benefits of global cooperation in addressing global security, the report underscores that “the world order appears to be fragmenting. Indeed, the global security landscape – once a largely cooperative domain in the post-Cold War era – is deteriorating, with the United Nations noting at the start of 2023 that the world was witnessing the highest number of violent conflicts since World War II.
After trending positively for much of the past decade, global cooperation risks moving into reverse. The story varies by pillar: – Trade and capital: trade and capital cooperation grew through the pandemic disruption, but slowed in 2023; geopolitical tensions and new restrictions make the future path unclear. Innovation and technology: flows of data, IP and international students powered an increase in cooperation until 2020, but new questions have arisen about how to work together to harness opportunities.
Similarly, the Climate and natural capital the level of cooperation for climate and natural capital has been rising steadily, due in large measure to an increase in commitments, but emissions also continue to rise. Cooperation in health and wellness rose swiftly in response to the pandemic, but appears to be settling back to historical patterns.
The barometer shows that cooperation is multifaceted, and elements of cooperation can coexist with elements of rivalry.
Leaders can practice “coopetition” – balancing cooperation and competition – to advance shared interests in specific areas, despite lack of alignment elsewhere. Further, leaders can use these instances of cooperation to build mutual trust, which in turn could strengthen cooperation in other areas.
