Nigeria’s public debt skyrocketed to ₦87.38 trillion (around $113.42 billion) in the second quarter of 2023.
From 1999 to 2021, Nigeria’s Government borrowing surged from ₦3.55 trillion to ₦26.91 trillion, a 658% increase. As of Q4 2023, the country’s debt stood at $108.2 billion, down from $114.4 billion in Q3 2023.
Alarmingly, the cost of debt servicing has surpassed the government’s retained revenue, resulting in a ₦300 billion deficit in 2023. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that by 2026, Nigeria may spend nearly 100% of its revenue on debt servicing.
For a country like Nigeria, numerous loans to fund essential projects have been taken. The Senate recently approved President Bola Tinubu’s request to borrow $7.8 billion and €100 million as part of the 2022–2024 borrowing plan. This borrowing is intended to address the country’s current balance of payment crisis.
But is borrowing a bad idea? No, excessive borrowing is.
Imagine planning a big family reunion. The venue you love is pricey, so you have two options: save up for a year and throw the perfect party debt-free, or borrow money from your reliable Aunt, promising to pay her back with interest over time.
Governments face a similar dilemma when funding projects like roads, schools, and healthcare. They can either save up, which takes time, or borrow money, allowing them to act immediately by selling bonds, which are essentially IOUs to investors.
Borrowing isn’t inherently bad. Just as borrowing from an Aunt can be a smart way to get things done if the interest rate is fair, government borrowing can be beneficial if managed adequately.
According to fDi Insights India is the World Bank’s biggest debtor with $38.3 billion, followed by Indonesia ($20.6 billion), Bangladesh ($18.2 billion), and Pakistan ($18.1 billion). China is expected to become a high-income country soon and has already begun reducing its World Bank debt. Fast-growing economies in Asia, like Vietnam and Indonesia, are now among the top borrowers, reflecting their increased need for development finance.
Nigeria is the only African country in the top 10, but several others like Ethiopia and Uzbekistan have seen increases in World Bank debt since 2010. The World Bank has increased lending to Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East/North Africa more than other regions in recent years.
When used wisely, borrowed money can finance infrastructure, improve education, and kickstart new industries, leading to economic growth and long-term benefits. This approach is akin to taking out a loan for a kitchen renovation that adds value to your home and improves your quality of life.
However, just like maxing out a credit card, excessive borrowing can be problematic. High interest rates can consume future budgets, limiting the government’s ability to invest in other areas. If the borrowed money isn’t spent wisely, future generations may inherit a hefty debt without seeing the benefits.
This scenario is like using your loan to buy a fancy car instead of funding your reunion, leaving your children to pay off the debt.
The rise in Nigeria’s debt is an everyday discussion. As mentioned earlier, Nigeria’s borrowings skyrocketed by 658% from 1999 to 2021. The IMF’s warning is a scary projection that highlights the urgent need for sustainable debt management strategies.
The Controversy: Investing in the Future or Burdening Future Generations?
Lots of people argue that borrowing is essential for development and without these funds, essential infrastructure projects would stall, while the economy suffers.
Quite alright, investing in roads, schools, and healthcare can stimulate growth, create jobs, and improve living standards. Supporters liken this to a necessary investment that will pay dividends in the future, much like taking out a loan to renovate a home.
On the contrary, others argue that Nigeria is digging itself into a financial hole. They see the government’s borrowing spree as inconsiderate, driven by short-term political gains rather than long-term economic health.
The fear is that high levels of debt will negatively impact future budgets, forcing the country to cut essential services in order to make debt payments. This view is likened to maxing out credit cards for immediate gratification, leaving future generations to bear the brunt.
The controversy goes deeper when considering the efficiency and transparency of how borrowed funds are used. Mismanagement and corruption are some thoughts, arguing that borrowed money often disappears into the pockets of officials rather than being used for its intended purpose.
This issue is enhanced by numerous instances of projects that either remain incomplete or fail to deliver promised benefits.
For instance, former President Buhari’s administration was accused of securing large loans without proper accountability.
The current administration’s rapid approval of new loans has led to questions about the investigation and intended use of these funds.
Is this money genuinely being invested in the nation’s future, or is it simply funding a cycle of corruption and waste?
Nigeria isn’t alone in this dilemma. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects government bond debt across its 38 member countries to climb to $56 trillion in 2024.
The World Bank warns that record debt levels combined with high interest rates could trigger a crisis in developing countries. The poorest countries face huge challenges, with export revenues increasingly squeezed to service debt.
What’s the solution? Some advocate for strict reforms and better management, emphasizing the need for transparency and accountability in government spending. They note prudent borrowing practices, where loans are only taken for projects with clear, measurable benefits and economic returns.
Others say a complete change of Nigeria’s political and economic systems is needed. Only a fundamental change can break the cycle of debt and mismanagement. This perspective sees current policies as flawed and incapable of addressing the root causes of Nigeria’s fiscal problems.
Possible Solutions and a Way Forward
Some essential areas for consideration when considering a sustainable future for the country include:
- Fiscal Prudence: The government needs to prioritize adequate spending and cut down on unnecessary expenditures. This could involve simplifying ministries, reducing bureaucracy, and tackling corruption.
- Revenue Diversification: Nigeria’s reliance on oil exports makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations. The government should explore ways to diversify its revenue streams by promoting other sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism.
- Debt Transparency and Accountability: Clear reporting on how borrowed funds are used and stricter oversight mechanisms are needed to rebuild public trust and ensure adequate borrowing.
- Investment in Long-Term Projects: Focusing on infrastructure development, education, and healthcare can create a foundation for long-term economic growth, ultimately generating more revenue for debt repayment.
- Public-Private Partnerships: Collaboration with the private sector can leverage expertise and resources for infrastructure development and job creation, potentially alleviating some of the government’s borrowing burden.
Government borrowing can enhance economic development, but it must be managed with care. The controversy surrounding Nigeria’s borrowing practices tells us about the need for adequate borrowing, transparent use of funds, and a focus on long-term economic health.
Whether viewed as a necessary investment or an inconsiderate spending, the outcome has not been good on the future we are seeing today.
Hence, sustainable debt management to secure long-term economic stability and growth should be prioritized, or the government risks passing an unsustainable burden to future generations.
