By: Joan Aimuengheuwa and Tobi Adetunji
====
With inflation skyrocketing to a disturbing 33.69% and food inflation hovering at 40.53%, the saying “A hungry man is an angry man” has never been more relevant.
In Nigeria, economic hardship is tightening its grip on millions of Nigerians and President Bola Tinubu’s administration is banking on a fresh cash transfer scheme to provide relief.
But can direct payments truly address the systemic issues troubling Nigeria’s economy, or are they just a temporary band-aid on a festering wound?
Announced as a part of President Bola Tinubu’s steps to mark his first anniversary in office, the scheme comes as direct payments to 75 million Nigerians across 50 million households.
This initiative aims to support vulnerable groups in the midst of the growing inflation rates, but we wonder: How far can cash transfers go in addressing the nation’s dire economic straits?
The Cash Transfer Scheme: A Brief Overview
Reinstated to soften the impact of the economic downturn, the cash transfer scheme was re-launched following a suspension of all programs managed by the National Social Investment Programme Agency (NSIPA) due to allegations of corruption.
With the return of the scheme, the government has implemented reforms to ensure transparency and efficiency, appointing a Special Presidential Panel, led by the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, to audit and review the programs.
But Nigeria’s economic situation is dire
The inflation figures earlier reported from the National Bureau of Statistics emphasize the hardship faced by the average Nigerian, struggling with skyrocketing prices of essential goods and services.
In response, the government has earmarked N1 billion for consumer credit and plans to grant 50,000 Naira to 1 million nano industries, hoping to stimulate economic activity at the grassroots level.
Can Cash Transfers Alleviate Poverty?
Cash transfer programs are not new to Nigeria, nor are they unique globally. They have been employed in various countries to provide immediate relief to the poorest segments of the population. However, their effectiveness in addressing deep-rooted economic issues is a topic of debate.
The Immediate Benefits
- Direct Relief: For households living in extreme poverty, direct cash transfers can provide immediate relief, allowing them to purchase food, pay for medical expenses, and cover other basic needs.
- Economic Stimulus: In increasing the purchasing power of the poor, cash transfers can stimulate local economies as recipients spend their money on goods and services within their communities.
The Long-Term Challenges
- Sustainability: Continuous cash transfers require substantial and sustained funding. Given Nigeria’s current economic challenges, including a high debt burden, the sustainability of such programs is questionable.
- Dependency: While cash transfers provide immediate relief, they do not address the root causes of poverty. There is a risk of creating dependency if not paired with initiatives aimed at economic empowerment and job creation.
- Inflationary Pressure: Injecting large sums of money into an economy already struggling with high inflation could worsen the situation, leading to further price increases.
One of the major complaints of past cash transfer programs has been issues of fraud and mismanagement.
The government’s goal to reform, highlighted by the establishment of the Special Presidential Panel and the suspension of key officials amid corruption allegations, is a good step in the proper direction. Ensuring transparency and accountability is important for the success of the current scheme.
Economy Emergency Plan
Beyond cash transfers, the government has outlined an Economic Emergency Plan, set to roll out over the next six months.
This plan aims to stabilize the economy through a series of measures, including improving Nigeria’s international credit rating and ensuring that the country has sufficient resources to pay its debts.
These efforts are designed to create a more stable economic environment, which is essential for any poverty alleviation strategy to succeed.
The reinstatement of the cash transfer scheme has led to talks that it is a short-term solution that fails to address systemic issues such as unemployment, inadequate infrastructure, and poor education systems.
On the other hand, people believe it provides much-needed relief to millions of struggling Nigerians and can act as a bridge to more sustainable economic reforms.
The cash transfer scheme is a contentious shot to provide immediate relief to the nation’s poorest. Its success will depend on the efficient and transparent distribution of funds and also on broader economic reforms that address the root causes of poverty and economic instability.
What we think the Government should do
Lee Kuan Yew, the epitome of leadership and a transformation leader, in his memoirs ‘The Singapore Story’ noted that “the task of the leaders must be to provide or create for them a strong framework within which they can learn, work hard, be productive and be rewarded accordingly. And this is not easy to achieve.
While we recognize and adequately commend the strategic contribution of the Federal Government of Nigeria in addressing the man-made economic fiasco we are engulfed in, we are of the opinion that the government should initiate practical strategic plans towards building a sordid economic future for the nation.
In this stead, the Federal Government, with all his paraphernalia of office, power and authority should look into these three critical areas; Building sustainable capital, Addressing insecurity, and initiating plan to reduce the cost of governance.
The ripple effects of this will trickle down into all aspects of our national life and prevent us form a Quick-fix solution.
Building Sustainable Capital
According to Investopedia, Capital broadly defined is anything that confers value or benefits to its owners, such as a factory, and its machinery, intellectual property like patents, or the financial assets of a business or an individual.
Thus, capital is used to produce value in an economy. it will not be out of place therefore to say that capital produces cash, which seems to be the problems or challenge of everyone.
Our emphasis here is that our policy makers must make a 360 degree swift and subsequent focus towards creating a system for capital development which must reflect in all our policies.
As a people, we would project our deep-rooted ignorance to the world by trying to make something out of nothing.
We can not keep making trial and error policies that suffocate business and at the same time expect a robust economy, expectantly, no government can solve the many problems of its citizens, but the government through the collective will of the people given to it can create an environment that advances capital accumulation.
For instance, Apple incorporation, a leading Technology giant, market capitalization is higher than the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of 140 countries. Apple’s market capitalization stands at $3.066 trillion as of December 19, 2023.
The combined GDP of 140 countries, according to the data from the World Bank in 2022, stood at $3.01 trillion. Going by this data, if Apple were to be a country, the implication is that its market capitalization would make it to the seventh-largest country globally.
Lets be practically committed to building and creating the atmosphere necessary for capital formation, we may never need cash transfer.
Fix Insecurity
The distinguished Prof Chinua Achebe, rightly noted in his book “The trouble with Nigeria” that there is nothing basically wrong with Nigerian land or climate or water or air or anything else.
The Nigerian problem is the unwillingness or inability of its leaders to rise to the responsibility, to challenge personal examples which are the hallmarks of true leadership.
Another aspect the policy maker needs to deliberately look into is the insecurity challenge in the country. Someone may jokingly inquire, what has it got to do with the economy? and my reply will be “harmony makes small things grow, while lack of it makes great things decay.”
Thus, success in life is found upon attention to small things rather than large things; to the everyday things nearest to us rather than to the things that are remote and uncommon.
Insecurity is one of those critical structures we often neglect. In the year 2020, the federal government economic council, noted that the economic cost of insecurity in Nigeria was estimated at 2.6 percent of the GDP in 2020, which was valued at $10.3 billion.
Nigeria has been marred by social unrest, including Boko Haram terrorism and herdsmen attacks just to mention a few. As a result of this unrest, the country ranked 149th out of 163 countries on the Global Peace Index.
The impacts are broad: agricultural production has been devastated, public infra-structure such as schools, hospitals and bridges have suffered significant damage, and the loss of life and mass displacement of people are astounding.
Given these huge economic costs of insecurity, it has been said in some quarters that the Nigerian defense sector is likely being underfunded, this already reflected in low staff strength, weak surveillance system, and a paucity of arms and ammunition.
According to the Institute for Economics and Peace, Nigeria had a relatively small military and private security sector. The organization noted that there are 219 police officers for every 100,000 Nigerians, significantly below both the global median of 300, and the sub-Saharan Africa average of 268.21.
But what are the benefits of a secure environment and what do we tend to gain as a people; security helps strengthen the nation’s infrastructure, remember there is still a large vacuum for us to fill up in this regards, security promote Tourism, security help strengthen relationship between countries security, promote business and economic growth, and prevent civil unrest among others.
According to the International Monetary (IMF), Nigeria’s economic growth will decline in 2023 and 2024 due to security issues in the oil sector.
IMF noted that the country’s economy would grow at 3.2 per cent in 2023, before declining to 3.0 per cent in 2024. Nigeria’s growth is below projections for the Sub-Saharan African region which is expected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2024.
The IMF said, “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to decline to 3.5 per cent in 2023 before picking up to 4.1 per cent in 2024. Growth in Nigeria in 2023 and 2024 is projected to gradually decline, in line with April projections, reflecting security issues in the oil sector.
With this and other attendant issues, we opined that addressing the insecurity challenge in Nigeria will definitely be of great immense importance to the economic prosperity of the nation.
Reduce the Skyrocketing cost of Governance
There is no progress, no achievement without sacrifice, says James Allen, again charity must begin at home. while the several policies of the Federal Government of Nigeria are deeply appreciated and noted. it is important to note that as this crusade and rain of taxation continuously fall on the citizens.
The same commitment must be clearly seen from the top echelon and those appointed to manage the resources of the state. The said sacrifice must start from up and trickle down, then we can be perceived as serious people ready to make something happen.
When we look at the 48 ministers submitted for the approval by the National Assembly by President Bola Tinubu, which eventually 45 of them were later appointed in contrast with the 1999 Constitution demands that one minister is appointed per state, when we add the Federal Capital Territory, it implies we should have a maximum of 37 ministers.
In addition to this ministerial list, the President has appointed special advisers and assistants who are of ministerial grade.
All these appointees will earn hefty salaries, allowances, estacodes, etc., that are beyond the earnings of ordinary skilled and educated Nigerian workers.
The frightening part of the earnings of political office holders is that they draw allowances beyond what is constitutionally approved by the Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission.
Their actual earnings are shrouded in secrecy. It is instructive to note that the country with best governance in the world includes; Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Canada, Belgium, New Zealand and Switzerland with an appreciable cost of governance.
Thus, as the cost of electricity skyrocket, and inflation surges high, whilst Taxes from all sectors trickle in, we hope and prescribed that the money that goes in into the maintenance of political office holders are adjusted and pump into the economy, whilst the mystery surrounding the disappearance of 800 companies is unraveled. This will go a long way to make a difference.
For now, the question needs your responses — How far can cash transfers go in addressing Nigeria’s dire economic straits?
