Nigeria’s business outlook remained resilient in August 2025, with the NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) reporting sustained momentum despite mounting operational challenges.
The Current Business Index rose slightly to 107.3 points, up from 105.4 points in July, keeping sentiment in expansionary territory for the eighth consecutive month.
The uptick was driven by improved performance in technology, finance, manufacturing, energy, and logistics, boosted by targeted investments and ongoing reforms. However, structural bottlenecks, including high operating costs, limited financing access, policy uncertainty, unreliable electricity, and insecurity, continued to weigh on profitability.
Sectoral data revealed a mixed picture. Trade rebounded strongly after last month’s dip, while Manufacturing (106.2), Non-manufacturing (116.2), Trade (114.1), and Services (103.7) all advanced. Conversely, Agriculture contracted to 95.6 points, dragged down by weaker crop production, which analysts attribute to seasonal factors ahead of the September–October harvest.
Stanbic IBTC noted that August’s contraction in agriculture was likely temporary. “Crop production tends to slow during the lean season, but we expect output to rise with the main harvest season,” the bank said, adding that the outlook for September and October is stronger.
Meanwhile, manufacturing regained momentum, supported by sub-sectors such as food, beverage and tobacco; textiles and apparel; wood products; and paper products. Services also posted growth for the sixth consecutive month, buoyed by improved FX liquidity, softer price pressures, and relative currency stability.
On a broader economic scale, Nigeria’s rebased GDP grew by 3.13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, down from 3.76% in Q4 2024, but still ahead of the 2.27% recorded in Q1 2024.
Services contributed the most to Q1 growth at 78.6%, while industries jumped to 20.9%, largely due to the structural boost from the Dangote Refinery’s operations. Agriculture, however, slumped to just 0.5%.
Looking ahead, the economy is projected to expand by 3.5% in 2025, up slightly from 3.4% in 2024, supported by moderating inflation, stronger FX liquidity, and ongoing structural reforms.
