MTN Nigeria is set to resume dividend payments next year as its balance sheet recovers, analysts at CardinalStone have said.
The telecommunications giant last rewarded shareholders in 2023, but a strong rebound in earnings and operations is clearing the way for a payout in the 2025 financial year.
MTN’s negative equity, which stood at ₦458 billion at the end of 2024, has reduced to ₦42.51 billion by mid-2025 and Analysts project that the figure will turn positive in the third quarter, an important step towards dividend reinstatement.
The record of strong payout ratios for MTN Nigeria, coupled with recent comments from MTN Group President Ralph Mupita about a possible public offer after dividend resumption, has further enhanced expectations.
Explosive data growth and the full impact of tariff increases, which took effect in the second quarter, are huge contributors to this. In that period, data revenue soared 85.6% year-on-year to ₦701 billion, up from ₦377 billion a year earlier.
Across the first half, MTN earned ₦1.22 trillion from data sales, supported by an increase in active users to 51 million and a 21.1% jump in average data consumption to 13.2GB per user.
Data now accounts for 51.7% of total revenue, increasing from 47.2% a year earlier, and is projected to hit 53% by year-end. Voice revenue also has a 40% growth forecast for 2025 despite competition from OTT alternatives like WhatsApp calls.
The recovery is also showing in profitability as MTN posted a half-year net income of ₦414.9 billion, a 179.9% increase compared with last year. Its EBITDA margin climbed to 50.6% in the first half, up from 35.6% in the same period of 2024.
Management attributed the improvement to a more stable naira and cost savings from renegotiated tower lease agreements.
Again, net operating cash flow surged 79.2% year-on-year to ₦955.68 billion in H1 2025, even after huge capital spending and debt repayments. First-half CAPEX surged 288.4% year-on-year to ₦565.67 billion, pushing CAPEX intensity to 23.8%.
The company plans to invest an average of ₦1.34 trillion annually over the next five years to support revenue growth of nearly 27% per year.
While this front-loaded spending will ease in the second half, analysts say it underlines MTN’s goal to strengthen its network and expand services.
After a difficult 2024, when the share price slid 24% to end the year at ₦200, MTN’s stock has staged an interesting recovery. Starting 2025 at ₦200, it surged to ₦250 by January-end, gathered further pace in June, and delivered a 32% gain in July alone.
As of early August, the shares trade at ₦480, a 140% year-to-date return and a market capitalisation above ₦10 trillion, making MTN only the second company on the Nigerian Exchange to hit that milestone after Dangote Cement.
CardinalStone has maintained a “Hold” rating on the stock, with a target price of ₦526.94 for 2025. Cordros Capital projects a dividend per share of ₦17.19, offering a yield of about 7% at current prices.
With data-led growth, expanding fintech operations, and continued network investment, analysts believe MTN is well placed to sustain its momentum. “Positive outlook affirmed for telco bellwether,” CardinalStone wrote in its August 6 report.
