The shares of MTN Nigeria are on a serious comeback, driven by expectations of a financial turnaround ahead of its Q1 2025 results.
Trading volumes in April shattered previous records, with over 11 million units exchanged in a single day.
The share price climbed to ₦245 by mid-April and further to ₦255.5 by April 27, following the telco’s 50% price hikes. Many investors and analysts expect these higher prices to push MTN’s margins back into strong territory and restore profitability.
MTN’s fate seems to be closely tied to broader developments now. The company is set to announce its first-quarter earnings on April 29, just one day before its Annual General Meeting.
A profit this quarter would break a long spell of losses caused by the naira’s devaluation in 2023, which wiped out huge chunks of the telco’s earnings.
MTN controls over half of Nigeria’s telecom market. Its ability to raise capital, expand broadband coverage, and invest in technology depends on strong market support.
The company recently renamed its home broadband service from MTN Fibre Broadband to FibreX, a move aimed at boosting growth and supporting Nigeria’s broadband expansion targets.
On April 12, MTN Nigeria announced a second public share offering to cut MTN Group’s stake from 76% to 65% and increase local ownership. The offer will only happen if the company returns to profit.
“Investors are also anticipating the public offer MTN Nigeria announced on April 12, 2025,” Tajudeen Ibrahim, director of research and strategy at Chapel Hill Denham, noted. “Investors believe MTN Nigeria shares are extremely cheap despite the recovery of earnings in Q4.” Chapel Hill Denham, a familiar figure in MTN’s capital market activities, is closely tied to this.
Airtel Africa, Nigeria’s second-largest telecom company and the most valuable stock on the NGX, has seen weak trading despite a 50% tariff hike. Between January and mid-April, only 336,734 Airtel shares were traded, compared to MTN’s millions.
Benedict Egwuchukwu, an investment researcher at Afrinvest, explained the problem: “The stocks are not easily available because of less demand and supply in the market.”
Airtel’s $100 million share buy-back programme has worsened the shortage, cutting the number of shares available for public trading.
MTN, on the other hand, remains highly liquid, with steady buying and selling that avoids major price swings. Yet even with the trading surge, MTN ranked only 44th by trading volume on the Nigerian Exchange. Fidelity Bank, by comparison, moved nearly 388 million shares in one day.
MTN Nigeria is valued at about ₦5.1 trillion, making it the fourth most capitalised stock on the NGX. April’s trading activity shows investors believe the company’s recovery is real.
MTN took heavy hits in 2023 and 2024, losing ₦400.44 billion after tax last year due to ₦925 billion in foreign exchange losses. But in Q4 2024, the company returned to profit, posting ₦114.5 billion after tax. Revenue rose by 36% to ₦3.36 trillion, showing strong demand for data and digital services.
There are still challenges. Inflation keeps rising. Poverty is spreading. The World Bank says nearly 47% of Nigerians now live below the national poverty line. As hardship grows, fewer people may afford telecom services, threatening MTN’s recovery.
While investors are waiting for MTN’s financial report on April 29, they are hoping the company’s comeback can withstand the economic challenges.
