The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is poised to release the long-awaited rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures within the month, marking a pivotal update in how Nigeria’s economy is measured.
A Refresh for Modern Realities
Under the updated NBS GDP methodology, the base year has shifted from 2010 to 2019, a move designed to reflect Nigeria’s transformed economic structure.
This recalibration will include previously excluded but fast-growing sectors such as e-commerce, fintech, digital services, marine economy, tourism, arts and culture, pension funds, and the informal sector, which employs more than 90% of Nigerians.
Expected Impacts
- Nigerian GDP for 2024 is expected to jump by roughly 30%, bringing the current price GDP to around ₦372.8 trillion (US $243–$244 billion) a leap from less reliable earlier estimates.
- With the updated figures, Nigeria may surge from the 58th to 55th largest economy globally, overtaking countries like Ukraine and Hungary.
Early Signals from Rebased Growth
Preliminary data for Q1 2025 shows real GDP growth of 3.13% year‑on‑year, compared to 2.27% in Q1 2024 a positive sign that the economy may be outperforming earlier expectations. However, the revision fell short of the 4.9% growth forecast.
The services sector remained the key driver, expanding by 4.33% and contributing 57% to total GDP. Oil accounted for just 3.97% of GDP.
Gains and Warnings
While the rebasing lowers Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio from around 52% to an estimated 40%, boosting investor sentiment, analysts caution that this may mask structural fiscal issues.
Experts warn it should not serve as a substitute for sustainable revenue generation and careful debt planning.
Why It Matters
As emphasized by NBS leadership, this comprehensive rebasing is the most extensive ever undertaken, aimed at equipping policymakers, investors, and analysts with accurate, up‑to‑date insights to inform evidence-based decisions and economic planning.
What’s Next?
With the rebased GDP figures expected in the coming weeks, all eyes are on the official reveal. Once confirmed, these updated numbers will offer a more meaningful view of the economy, shedding light on growth drivers and guiding resource allocation toward sectors critical for employment, inclusion, and national competitiveness.
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