The biggest macro event for Nigeria will be the incoming CPI report which may shape monetary policy expectations ahead of the CBN meeting next week.
Nigeria’s August CPI is expected to show prices easing to 21% year-on-year, from 21.9% previously. Such a figure may support the argument around CBN cutting interest rates in September.
The prospects of lower interest rates may boost confidence in Nigeria’s economic outlook, lending support local equities.
Speaking of interest rates, major central bank decisions could inject global markets with fresh volatility in the week ahead. The Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be under the spotlight.
Markets widely expect the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 amid persistent weakness in the US labour markets and tame inflation. But much focus will be on the updated dot plot and economic projections that may shape expectations around future policy moves.
Traders have fully priced in a Fed cut in September with the odds of another cut by October at 86% and a third cut by December at 79%. The Fed decision is major event that will impact not only major equities and currencies but emerging market assets.
On the trade front, US and Chinese officials are engaging in another round of trade talks in Madrid, laying the groundwork for a potential meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping as soon as October.
Any fresh positive updates ahead of the November deadline may boost sentiment, weighing on safe-havens while supporting risk assets.
In the commodity space, Gold is trading less than 1% away from its all-time high and has secured four consecutive weeks of gains. The precious metal is up almost 6% month-to-date, taking 2025 gains to nearly 40%
Oil benchmarks traded within a range this week amid oversupply fears and concerns over the global demand outlook in the face of tariffs.
Looking at the charts, WTI crude remains in a range with support at $61.50 and resistance at $65.00. A breakout could be on the horizon, but this may be triggered by a potent fundamental force in the form of the Fed decision this week.
