Nigeria’s headline inflation rate continued its downward trend for the 11th consecutive month, dropping slightly to 15.06% in February 2026 from 15.10% in January.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this represents the lowest level since November 2020.
While the headline figure offers a glimmer of macroeconomic stability, a deeper dive into the data reveals emerging pressures in the food sector that could challenge this trajectory in the coming months.
The Paradox: Easing Headline vs. Spiking Food Prices
Despite the overall decline in headline inflation, food inflation rose to 12.12% in February, up from 8.89% in January.
The NBS attributed this surge to a renewed spike in the prices of staples like cassava, yams, beans, and crayfish.
Analysts point to two primary drivers for this monthly pressure:
- Ramadan Demand: Early bulk-buying by households in preparation for the fasting period has exerted upward pressure on market prices.
- Agricultural Seasonality: A reduction in farming activities during the current cycle has tightened the supply of key staples.
Energy and Currency: The Stabilizing Forces
The marginal ease in the headline rate was largely supported by a moderating core inflation basket.
Key factors included:
- Fuel Price Moderation: Energy costs saw a slight reprieve after the Dangote Refinery reduced its ex-depot PMS price by ₦25 per litre (to ₦774).
- Naira Appreciation: The Naira gained approximately 4.32% in the official window during February, averaging ₦1,355.34/$, which helped contain the cost of imported goods.
What This Means for the Economy
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation actually saw an upward movement to 2.01%, reversing the contraction seen in January (-2.88%).
This suggests that while the year-on-year base effect is keeping the headline figure low, real-time price pressures are intensifying.
As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) monitors these figures, the slight interest rate cut implemented earlier this year signals an expectation of continued moderation.
However, with food prices halting their months-long decline, the last mile of disinflation may prove more difficult than anticipated.
